Long Paddock Australian seasonal forecasts

longpaddockScroll down to the comments below to view all Long paddock seasonal forecasts from 2019 and onwards.








Murray-Darling catchment

The Murray–Darling Basin is the largest and most complex river system in Australia. It runs from Queensland, through New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory, Victoria and South Australia, spanning 77,000 kilometres of rivers, many of which are connected.

Towns and rural communities across the Basin rely on a healthy river system—our economy, food security and well being depend on it, now and into the future.

Please scroll down to comments below for further information, comments or latest news on climate and the basin.

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Indian Monsoon

Indian monsoon, the most prominent of the world’s monsoon systems, which primarily affects India and its surrounding water bodies. It blows from the northeast during cooler months and reverses direction to blow from the southwest during the warmest months of the year. This process brings large amounts of rainfall to the region during June and July.

Read on here

5th sept_19 Indian monsoon

Indian meteorological society



All further information is in the comments section below.

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Satellite pictures and radar .. Links

I will start collecting some site links for quick reference

Here is a great Australian link.

A feast of radar and satellite options layed out on a user friendly format so that you can see the best of Australian weather at a glance.

The author is looking to upgrade and expand.

I love also the highest and lowest temperatures in Australian states  displayed in a format that is a breeze to read.


This site has lots of ‘goodies’.. check it out

The author has just opened a new Australian weather forum.

Please support them



Please scroll down to comments section below to see more links to satellite and radar sites. Click on the heading if they don’t load.






Rain trends vs -ENSO-IPO: Manilla NSW by surlybond

From 1999, rainfall at Manilla NSW matched ENSO only up to 2011, before the IPO became positive. This graphical log compares the rainfall at Manilla NSW with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) through the 21st century to date. Values shown are anomalies, smoothed. (See Notes below on “Data”, “Smoothing”, […]

via 21-C Rain-ENSO-IPO: Line graphs — climate by surly


Climate shifts…natural variation

I have started this blog post because today l have found out all major search engines are re routing the search string ‘climate shift’.

If you enter this term into any search engine, it will respond with pages and pages of ‘climate change’

We are being prevented from viewing alternative theories to man made climate change theories or facts, folks.

I will make an attempt to collect some links to climate regime shift sites that focus on natural variability.

I have tried alternatives to google and they ALL redirect the term ‘climate shift’

…You can get around this by..

Using google scholar…

which will accept the string ‘climate shift’ and lead you to alternative research on the reasons for global temperature trends other than AGW


on on the main google search engine page use talking marks on the search string which over rides the ban on the term… climate shift

“climate shift”






2018/19 : the second-warmest financial year on record in Australia

Climate of the 2018–19 financial year ..Report by BOM–19 financial year

‘…it was the second-warmest financial year on record’


.My comment… Since when are ‘financial years’ the  time frame for the primary seasonal report?





Atmospheric rivers are relatively long, narrow regions in the atmosphere – like rivers in the sky – that transport most of the water vapor outside of the tropics.

What are atmospheric rivers? | National Oceanic and Atmospheric …


25th March 2019

From Ex cyclone Trevor to the west coast of New Zealand.
Some exceptional rainfall falling as the stream pours its ‘goods’ on the NZ coast.
Goc to NZ 26th March 2019
jet stream atmospheric river 26 march 2019
ACCESS  r showing the moisture stream /river flowing from ex Cyclone Trevor through the NSW/QLD border coast and on to west NZ
This is the path of a surface trough and the stream directed by an ana branch of the sub tropical jet on the Australian  mainland connecting to the exit arm of a sub tropical jet to NZ.
The 200hpa stream overlaying the surface troughing.
I think that is fair to say that is an atmospheric river.
Also a heat , moisture. conveyor belt from the tropics to the higher latitudes.
In this case the river is feeding into a trough in the westerly belt, 40-45 degs latitude
Forum discussion and info’ from New Zealand

An epic rain event occurring at the moment on the west coast of the south island, even by West Coast standards this is WET and the biggest event in 20 years for some locations. Cropp Waterfall (inland from Hokitika) which is one of the worlds wettest locations with an average of 11,000mm per year has had 613mm in the past 24 hours with nearly the same amount to come in the next day!”
next day’ pete28′ says
“Cropp River has just broken the NZ 48 hour rainfall record with approx 1,100mm falling in the past 2 days!”

a New Zealand river .. Waiho Bridge, near the town of Franz Josef..has been washed away in a severe rain storm, prompting the authorities to declare a state of emergency in the region.

The storm battered the west coast of New Zealand’s South Island, forcing the closure of 300 km of road due to flooding, according to local media reports.

Watch you tube


A study of significant heat or drought in Australia

I will just collect information and post links.


SUMMER 2018/2019

A persistent pos AAO…Stalled synoptic pattern…with the Tasman high centred west of NZ..,.. jetstreams well south and zonal ( not wavy).. monsoonal activity mainly up in the far nth qld

map source:

Three-monthly rainfall deciles for Australia

Comments and information from weatherzone forum  >>>>>>>>

Rainfall deciles… Archive …. Australia.


KEN KATO..said  “Above is what Australia’s hottest summer on record looks like in the decile maps covering the last 3 months.”


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Flooding events in Australia

Not in  order of years but as l come across links and information


Australia… record rainfall

6 month rainfall anomalies. Archives. Australia

Six-monthly rainfall anomalies for Australia

3 monthly rainfall deciles for Australia

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