Long Paddock Australian seasonal forecasts

longpaddockScroll down to the comments below to view all Long paddock seasonal forecasts from 2019 and onwards.








Murray-Darling catchment

The Murray–Darling Basin is the largest and most complex river system in Australia. It runs from Queensland, through New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory, Victoria and South Australia, spanning 77,000 kilometres of rivers, many of which are connected.

Towns and rural communities across the Basin rely on a healthy river system—our economy, food security and well being depend on it, now and into the future.

Please scroll down to comments below for further information, comments or latest news on climate and the basin.

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A brand new Australian weather forum has opened… August 2019

as a replacement for the now defunct weatherzone forum .Weatherzone forum closed in JULY 2019 .

Paul Atkins is the author and administrator.

I go on there myself with username ‘crikey’

I encourage you to join and help build this forum with regular posts

Check it out here.. Its free.. Just register and start posting

(Don’t forget the .au or you will end up in an overseas address.There are quite a few forums with a similar address)

front door


Pauls’ ABOUT page says

” forum is created and hosted by the same people who created and came about due to the closing of the WeatherZone forum in mid 2019. (Although we were a couple of months late!!!)

I am an IT manager, who feels the need to get back on the tools and play with things, like this forum, just to keep the old brain cells engaged!

We are a non commercial site created by a weather enthusiast for Weather enthusiasts.

We aim to create a forum where people can express their own opinions, however we expect users to respect other users as people and avoid conflict and trolling. To help with this we utilise various spam filters and profanity filters. This should help make the WeatherForum a place for young and old to enjoy.

(We is myself and Gemma the cat, who walked on the keyboard whilst the forum was being created)”


Climate shifts…natural variation

I have started this blog post because today l have found out all major search engines are re routing the search string ‘climate shift’.

If you enter this term into any search engine, it will respond with pages and pages of ‘climate change’

We are being prevented from viewing alternative theories to man made climate change theories or facts, folks.

I will make an attempt to collect some links to climate regime shift sites that focus on natural variability.

I have tried alternatives to google and they ALL redirect the term ‘climate shift’

…You can get around this by..

Using google scholar…

which will accept the string ‘climate shift’ and lead you to alternative research on the reasons for global temperature trends other than AGW


on on the main google search engine page use talking marks on the search string which over rides the ban on the term… climate shift

“climate shift”






2018/19 : the second-warmest financial year on record in Australia

Climate of the 2018–19 financial year ..Report by BOM–19 financial year

‘…it was the second-warmest financial year on record’


.My comment… Since when are ‘financial years’ the  time frame for the primary seasonal report?




A study of significant heat or drought in Australia

I will just collect information and post links.


SUMMER 2018/2019

A persistent pos AAO…Stalled synoptic pattern…with the Tasman high centred west of NZ..,.. jetstreams well south and zonal ( not wavy).. monsoonal activity mainly up in the far nth qld

map source:

Three-monthly rainfall deciles for Australia

Comments and information from weatherzone forum  >>>>>>>>

Rainfall deciles… Archive …. Australia.


KEN KATO..said  “Above is what Australia’s hottest summer on record looks like in the decile maps covering the last 3 months.”


Scroll down to the comments for all other entries

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Historical ..Annual_Seasonal _monthly climate reports for Australia

I will  give some links to these resources. On this front page and in the comments section below


The Australian recent climate – news, reports and summaries




Seasonal climate summary southern hemisphere (summer 2015-16):  strong El Niño peaks and begins to weaken
Acacia S. Pepler1  1 Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, Australia

Click to access Seasonal2.pdf


Seasonal climate summary southern hemisphere . Winter of 2000 ..

by    Grant Beard…A near neutral phase of  ENSO


Flooding events in Australia

Not in  order of years but as l come across links and information


Australia… record rainfall

6 month rainfall anomalies. Archives. Australia

Six-monthly rainfall anomalies for Australia

3 monthly rainfall deciles for Australia

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BOM.. Autumn 2019 forecast.. Australia

Climate outlook overview

  • The autumn (March to May) climate outlook, issued 14 February 2019, indicates a
  • drier than average season is likely for large parts of northern Australia.
  • The rest of the country shows no strong tendency towards a wetter or drier than average autumn.
  • Warmer than average days and nights are likely for almost all of Australia for autumn.

  • For daytime temperatures, the chances of being warmer than median are very high, greater than 80% for most of the mainland.

  • The Bureau’s ENSO Outlook is currently at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is a 50% chance of El Niño developing from autumn; this is double the normal chance. Details: Climate influences

  • source link

SOI…. Southern Oscillation Index


Definition from BOM


“The Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI, gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. The SOI is calculated using the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin.

Sustained negative values of the SOI lower than −7 often indicate El Niño episodes. These negative values are usually accompanied by sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, a decrease in the strength of the Pacific Trade Winds, and a reduction in winter and spring rainfall over much of eastern Australia and the Top End.

Sustainted positive values of the SOI greater than +7 are typical of a La Niña episode. They are associated with stronger Pacific trade winds and warmer sea temperatures to the north of Australia. Waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become cooler during this time. Together these give an increased probability that eastern and northern Australia will be wetter than normal.

Technical details

There are a few different methods for calculating the SOI. The method used by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is the Troup SOI which is the standardised anomaly of the Mean Sea Level Pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin.”


CURRENT SOI.. 30 day moving average

current SOI


Long term time series

soi 1876 fom1896soi 1896 to 1916soi 1918 to 1938soi 1940 to 1960soi 1962 to 1982soi 1984 to 2004soi 2004 to 2018