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Geopotential height of the SH polar vortex has Positive correlation with the AAO

An incredible correlation between vertical geopotential height and the phase of the AAO.

Amazing l have never noted that before. A light bulb moment.

When geopotential height between surface to 100 hPa is positive . The AAO index is negative.
When geopotential height between surface and 100 hPa is negative. The AAO index is positive.

Some convincing proof that the condition of the polar vortex affects our weather.
I will put this geopotential height anomaly in the polar vortex on my weekly observation  round.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.aao.shtml

timeseries june to sept pv geoht

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Volcanoes and global cooling

Found this amazing essay published on National geographic

Colossal volcano behind ‘mystery’ global cooling finally found

The eruption devastated local Maya settlements and caused crop failures around the world

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/08/colossal-volcano-behind-mystery-global-cooling-found/?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=social::src=twitter::cmp=editorial::add=tw20190823science-colossalvolcanomystery::rid=&sf218005129=1


Some extracts

The ices of Greenland and Antarctica bear the fingerprints of a monster: a gigantic volcanic eruption in 539 or 540 A.D. that killed tens of thousands and helped trigger one of the worst periods of global cooling in the last 2,000 years. Now, after years of searching, a team of scientists has finally tracked down the source of the eruption.

The team’s work, published in Quaternary Science Reviews, lays out new evidence that ties the natural disaster to Ilopango, a now-dormant volcano in El Salvador. Researchers estimate that in its sixth-century eruption, Ilopango expelled the equivalent of 10.5 cubic miles of dense rock, making it one of the biggest volcanic events on Earth in the last 7,000 years. The blast was more than a hundred times bigger than the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption and several times larger than the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. It dealt the local Maya settlements a blow that forever altered their trajector……

el salvador

 

Ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica show spikes of sulfate, a byproduct of large volcanic eruptions, at 536 and either 539 or 540. The two volcanoes were so large and so violent, they launched sulfur gases and particles miles into the sky. Since this material reflected sunlight away from Earth’s surface, it triggered severe global cooling: One 2016 study found that the volcanoes decreased average global temperatures by as much as 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit……

……

geologists published new evidence that the historical “dust veil” of 536 was caused by a volcano. In the other, researchers announced that the Tierra Blanca Joven extended into marine sediments off the coast of El Salvador. The Tierra Blanca Joven eruption was even bigger than Dull and others thought.…….

………..

Dull’s team also revised their estimate of Ilopango’s size, taking into account the thickness and spread of Tierra Blanca Joven deposits. They say that Ilopango may have even dwarfed the 1815 Tambora eruption, a huge volcanic event that ushered in “a year without a summer” because of the global cooling it caused. Ilopango likely launched up to a million tons of sulfur miles into the sky, high enough for stratospheric winds to spread the aerosols worldwide and trigger global cooling.…..


The actual Research paper

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379119301465

Radiocarbon and geologic evidence reveal Ilopango volcano as source of the colossal ‘mystery’ eruption of 539/40 CE

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.07.037

 

 

 

 

 

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Climate shifts…natural variation

I have started this blog post because today l have found out all major search engines are re routing the search string ‘climate shift’.

If you enter this term into any search engine, it will respond with pages and pages of ‘climate change’

We are being prevented from viewing alternative theories to man made climate change theories or facts, folks.

I will make an attempt to collect some links to climate regime shift sites that focus on natural variability.

I have tried alternatives to google and they ALL redirect the term ‘climate shift’

…You can get around this by..

Using google scholar…

which will accept the string ‘climate shift’ and lead you to alternative research on the reasons for global temperature trends other than AGW

or

on on the main google search engine page use talking marks on the search string which over rides the ban on the term… climate shift

“climate shift”

 

 

 

 

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1998 Climate Shift

I was looking at some time series data in particular SH ozone and the AAO(SAM)

I noticed a clear and abrupt change around 1998 and onwards.

OZONE TIME SERIES

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Extratropics/figs5.shtml

ozone time zeries

AAO Time series

AAO time series1945 to 2011

1998 AAO climate shict

 

I thought l might check Google to see if researchers had documented a climate shift and the answer was yes.

There have been major climate shifts noted in 1925,1945,1975,1998

…………….

The Shifts Hypothesis – an alternative view of global climate change

source

The Shifts Hypothesis – an alternative view of global climate change

Guest post by Pavel Belolipetsky

( BTW..when  was searching for information on google for ‘climate shift’, l noted l got next to NOTHING..,It appears google have removed the term and given full priority to the term ‘climate change’.

I think l might change my search engine)

……..

 

 

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Townsville and Brisbane. Past Rainfall correlated with sunspot number

This research was conducted by ‘RetiredWeatherMan ‘ a retired BOM meteorologist.

‘RWM’ is an active member of Australian weather forums

http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=94&p=111657#p111657

…….

by retiredweatherman » Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:11 pm

The Queensland coastline from Bowen to Townsville has a more west-northwest orientation than the rest,
and even westerly in the Townsville region. The prevailing east-southeast trade winds therefore blow
more parallel to the coastline over this section producing lower rainfalls – the area being known as the
Dry Tropics. A range of hills from Cape Cleveland, northeast of Townsville runs to the south of
Townsville near Majors Creek, further protecting the Townsville region from the Trades. Therefore this
area is ideal to study for monsoonal influenced summer rains, with the monsoon flow being predominately
from the northeast to north. This region is also affected by PDO,ESNO,IOD and at the southern end of
MJO influences. And all these factors whether singly or in tandem can help to influence the rainfall
totals. As well as the coastline orientation, the lack of nearby coastal ranges largely negates rainfall
being boosted by the Trade Flow. My studies have shown these summer rainfalls may also be partly
influenced by the Solar Cycle in some instances, again whether singly or in tandem with other influences
as mentioned earlier. The attached graph shows the monsoonal summer rains, generally maximized between
November and April expressed as a percentage of the average of this 6 month period against the Solar Cycle
each year in January, back to reliable record gathering in 1872. For comparison is a similar graph for Brisbane
summer rain ( Dec to Mar ). Brisbane summer rainfall is more influenced by southern patterns then Townsville
therefore the similarities are not as well defined. One interesting parallel with the two sites is the very
long time it took to cast off the influence of the Federation Drought ( Brisbane more so than Townsville )
with the summer rainfall peaks moving generally upward roughly in line with the upwards movement of the
solar peaks from the Federation Drought period up to about 1960. The 2 graphs follow…..’

 

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Are the Mount Sinabung eruptions ..effecting our weather?

LINKS

https://climatecrocks.com/2019/06/09/cheering-the-volcanhttps://twitter.com/AndrewDessler/status/1137813438514835458o/

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Length of day_climate implications

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/284205134_The_Approaching_New_Grand_Solar_Minimum_and_Little_Ice_Age_Climate_Conditions

————-

TALLBLOKE BLOG is the best place to research and read about this topic

https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/?s=length+of+day….

……………

The length of the day under the influence of cosmic rays and the sun

http://www.techno-science.net/?onglet=news&news=8223


https://www.researchgate.net/figure/During-the-Spoerer-Maunder-and-Dalton-Minima-Earths-rate-of-rotation-speeded-up-the_fig3_284205134

During the Spörer, Maunder and Dalton Minima, Earth’s rate of rotation speeded-up, the main Gulf Stream flow was directed SE:wards and Arctic water penetrated far down into the North Atlantic [5]. At the New Grand Solar Minimum similar conditions are likely to re-occur.

 

In progress

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2019-2030 Solar cycle 25

Waiting For The Next Sunspot Cycle: 2019-2030

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/waiting-for-the-next-suns_b_11812282

The forecasts suggest Cycle 25 might continue the declining trend of polar field decrease seen in the last three sunspot cycles, and be even weaker than Cycle 24 with far fewer than 100 spots.

extract

“The forecasts suggest Cycle 25 might continue the declining trend of polar field decrease seen in the last three sunspot cycles, and be even weaker than Cycle 24 with far fewer than 100 spots.”

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Lack of sunspots to bring record cold, warns NASA scientist

EXTRACT…..“The sun is entering one of the deepest Solar Minima of the Space Age,” wrote Dr Tony Phillips just six weeks ago, on 27 Sep 2018.

Sunspots have been absent for most of 2018 and Earth’s upper atmosphere is responding, says Phillips, editor of spaceweather.com.

Data from NASA’s TIMED satellite show that the thermosphere (the uppermost layer of air around our planet) is cooling and shrinking, literally decreasing the radius of the atmosphere.

To help track the latest developments, Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center and his colleagues recently introduced the “Thermosphere Climate Index.”

The Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI) tells how much heat nitric oxide (NO) molecules are dumping into space. During Solar Maximum, TCI is high (meaning “Hot”); during Solar Minimum, it is low (meaning “Cold”).

“Right now, it is very low indeed … 10 times smaller than we see during more active phases of the solar cycle,” says Mlynczak”

source of article

November 2018

https://www.iceagenow.info/lack-of-sunspots-to-bring-record-cold-warns-nasa-scientist/

Nicola Scafetta: On the astronomical origin of the Hallstatt oscillation found in radiocarbon and climate records throughout the Holocene.

NICOLA SCAFETTA SEPTEMBER 2016 “Hallstatt oscillation (about 2318 year period), which is observed in climate and solar records is a major stable resonance of the solar system. The paper also evaluates the other major planetary stable resonances and we found all other typical oscillations found in climate and solar records such as a quasi 20-year oscillation, a quasi 60-year oscillation, the 82-97 year Gleissberg oscillation and the 159-185 year Jose oscillation (and others).”

Tallbloke's Talkshop

fig1-scafetta

Nicola Scafetta writes:

Dear all,

it was a pleasure to meet you at London. Some of you asked me about my paper in press about a link between astronomical, solar and climate oscillations. Here it is:

Scafetta, N., Milani, F., Antonio Bianchini, A., Ortolani, S.: On the astronomical origin of the Hallstatt oscillation found in radiocarbon and climate records throughout the Holocene. Earth-Science Reviews 162, 24–43, 2016. There is a free access to the article, and is valid for anybody until November 10, 2016 by using this link  http://authors.elsevier.com/a/1TlSB2weQTZcD

(Permanent copy here)

The importance of the article is that it demonstrates quite clearly that the long Hallstatt oscillation (about 2318 year period), which is observed in climate and solar records is a major stable resonance of the solar system. The paper also evaluates the other major planetary stable resonances and we found all other typical oscillations found in climate and…

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