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Climate shifts…natural variation

I have started this blog post because today l have found out all major search engines are re routing the search string ‘climate shift’.

If you enter this term into any search engine, it will respond with pages and pages of ‘climate change’

We are being prevented from viewing alternative theories to man made climate change theories or facts, folks.

I will make an attempt to collect some links to climate regime shift sites that focus on natural variability.

I have tried alternatives to google and they ALL redirect the term ‘climate shift’

…You can get around this by..

Using google scholar…

which will accept the string ‘climate shift’ and lead you to alternative research on the reasons for global temperature trends other than AGW

or

on on the main google search engine page use talking marks on the search string which over rides the ban on the term… climate shift

“climate shift”

 

 

 

 

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1998 Climate Shift

I was looking at some time series data in particular SH ozone and the AAO(SAM)

I noticed a clear and abrupt change around 1998 and onwards.

OZONE TIME SERIES

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Extratropics/figs5.shtml

ozone time zeries

AAO Time series

AAO time series1945 to 2011

1998 AAO climate shict

 

I thought l might check Google to see if researchers had documented a climate shift and the answer was yes.

There have been major climate shifts noted in 1925,1945,1975,1998

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The Shifts Hypothesis – an alternative view of global climate change

source

The Shifts Hypothesis – an alternative view of global climate change

Guest post by Pavel Belolipetsky

( BTW..when  was searching for information on google for ‘climate shift’, l noted l got next to NOTHING..,It appears google have removed the term and given full priority to the term ‘climate change’.

I think l might change my search engine)

……..

 

 

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Troposphere height

Links , pictures, research, information.

troposphere rheemoclineatmosphere temperature layers with,height

In no specific order.

Theory. Height of the troposphere

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap01/tropo.html

extract

‘The height of the tropopause depends on the location, notably the latitude, as shown in the figure on the right (which shows annual mean conditions). It also depends on the season (1, 2). Thus, it is about 16 km high over Australia at year-end, and between 12 – 16 km at midyear, being lower at the higher latitudes. At latitudes above 60� , the tropopause is less than 9 -10 km above sea level; the lowest is less than 8 km high, above Antarctica and above Siberia and northern Canada in winter. The highest average tropopause is over the oceanic warm pool of the western equatorial Pacific, about 17.5 km high, and over Southeast Asia, during the summer monsoon, the tropopause occasionally peaks above 18 km. In other words, cold conditions lead to a lower tropopause, obviously because of less convection.

Deep convection (thunderstorms) in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or over mid-latitude continents in summer, continuously push the tropopause upwards and as such deepen the troposphere. This is because thunderstorms mix the tropospheric air at a moist adiabatic lapse rate. In the upper troposphere, this lapse rate is essentially the same as the dry adiabatic rate of 10K/km. So a deepening by 1 km reduces the tropopause temperature by 10K. Therefore, in areas where (or at times when) the tropopause is exceptionally high, the tropopause temperature is also very low, sometimes below -80� C. Such low temperatures are not found anywhere else in the Earth’s atmosphere, at any level, except in the winter stratosphere over Antarctica.

On the other hand, colder regions have a lower tropopause, obviously because convective overturning is limited there, due to the negative radiation balance at the surface. In fact, convection is very rare in polar regions; most of the tropospheric mixing at middle and high latitudes is forced by frontal systems in which uplift is forced rather than spontaneous (convective). This explains the paradox that tropopause temperatures are lowest where the surface temperatures are highest.

The tropopause height does not gradually drop from low to high latitudes. Rather, it drops rapidly in the area of the subtropical and polar front jets (STJ and PFJ respectively in the Figure on the left), as shown in the Palmen-Newton model of the general circulation (Fig 12.16 or Fig on left). Especially when the jet is strong and the associated front at low levels intense, then the tropopause height drops suddenly across the jet stream. Sometimes the tropopause actually folds down to 500 hPa (5.5 km) and even lower, just behind a well-defined cold front. The subsided stratospheric air within such a tropopause fold (or in the less pronounced tropopause dip) is much warmer than the tropospheric air it replaces, at the same level, and this warm advection aloft (around 300 hPa) largely explains the movement of the frontal low (at the surface) into the cold airmass, a process called occlusion (Section 13.3) (4).

 

 

………

Google search.. ‘pictures tropopause height’

https://www.google.com/search?q=picture+tropopause+height&tbm=isch&source=univ&client=firefox-b-d&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjlnsDf-bDjAhVDfX0KHcEUAu0QsAR6BAgEEAE&biw=1025&bih=491

………..

 

 

 

 

 

 

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AAO correlated with southern hemisphere synoptic 2019

Here l take snaps of the ACCESS g model southern hemisphere synoptic and also record the AAO/SAM parameter.

Looking for synoptic patterns and if they correlate with shifts in the AAO. I will make a few observation notes as warranted.

AAO link.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index.html

ACC g  southern hemisphere synoptic

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=AEDT&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

The first entry is below and then scroll down to comments section for all further additions. Click on the heading to load if necessary

5th may 2019 _AAO

image below 8th may 2019  AAO  going strong positive  Here +0.7 and going up

8th may 2019 polar low displaces cold air _SH

11th may 2019 aao vs SH synoptic

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East coast lows (ECL) Australia

In progress.    Current and historical.

6th May 2019.0

Acc g forecasting the development of an ECL off the mid NSW coast on 6th May 2019

A meandering sub tropical jet 200hpa m spawns a surface low within a surface trough off the coast. The AAO/SAM has dropped 1.5 point in the past week and the jets develop tighter bends. The low forms within the peak of the sub tropical jet trough. Here is the forecast

source

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=gradient&tz=AEDT&area=GAuR&model=CSCG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

6th may 2019

AAO link

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao.shtml

 

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Low level snow Australia

Click on the title to load all further entries at the base of this page

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Records of past and present low altitude snow events below 600m , as l come across them

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TASMANIA 1st August 2014

An extreme cold pool with thickness down to ~524 brought low level snow to Tasmania

Waratah at 600m

posted by’snowies’
“Most of the roads affected are in the west, generally 600m asl and above. Reports of slushy snow on the road at the Fern Tree Tavern (450m)”
waratah snow 60m 1st august 2014
about Waratah in the Nth of Tasmania
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waratah,_Tasmania
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Some snow reported at

Collinsvale (350m) near Hobart

Discussed here
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1271812/Re_What_s_happening_in_Tassie#Post1271812
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Gallery of pictures from the Mercury newspaper of the wild and wet weather
http://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/photos-fnj4f7k1-1227009106102?page=3

MT WELLINGTON ( 1271m)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Wellington_(Tasmania)
“The snow-capped Wellington Range, as seen from the banks of the Huon River, at Franklin. Picture: Kim Eiszele”
1st August 2014
snow on mt wellington
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31st JULY and 1st AUGUST 2014
VICTORIA

Thanks to KEN KATO for the sat pic’mage and here is where the event is discussed
“Today’s satellite imagery from NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites looked truly spectacular”
sat pic 1st August 2014

Mt MACEDON 870m
“Nice 1cm snow cover here this morning. Down to -1 earlier now it’s -0.4C
…Just had another 20 mins of heavy wind blown snow, the temp dipped back below zero.
This is the coldest day I’ve seen here in the 11 years that I’ve been coming up to the mountain.
next day
“A Facebook friend just posted a pic of nice snow at or near Portland . It looks good .
We still have a full cover after a very cold night (-2.4C) it still below zero now. I’ve not seen it like this for years. It has been less than 1C for 40 hours now.
A fantastic event for us here, for a change !
3rd Aug 2014
“Still snow on the ground here this morning. A severe frost as well. It’s -3.4C”
4th August 2014
“Still snow on the ground here, if we keep getting frosts it will sit there in the shade for days.
-2C this morning and -6 again at Trentham.”
I’ve got pics on Facebook it’s Chris Williams Mt Macedon”.. by ‘avalan’
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1272165/6
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“It also seems that Portland (NSW) indeed had some of the better clouds come over. smile Reports of 3 – 4 cm in parts” by ‘davem’
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aussiestormfreak’ says”I’ve heard reports on Facebook of snowfalls in

Lorne and in the Otway Ranges


tempest’ says…”My brother texted to me a photo he has just taken above

Lorne – 250m above sea level blanket of snow on the ground!”

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“Snowing heavily and settling here in

Ballarat

“.. says ‘newbury1’
Excellent photos and video from Ballarat here
http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-ideas/snow-falls-in-ballarat-and-locals-wander-around-in-shorts-this-is-australias-toughest-city/story-e6frfqdr-1227010148241
St Patricks college Ballarat
snow ballarat august 2014
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My neighbour told me snow was reported in Inverloch?
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Report from Katoomba
by ‘IPEX’
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1272243/Re_Snow_31_July_2_Aug#Post1272243
“Very fortunate to be in Katoomba over the weekend and experience quite a good snowfall during dinner at the Savoy in Katoomba St on Friday night. About halfway through the meal there was a sudden murmur of delight and excitement in the restaurant, and I looked up and saw it was snowing outside. Quite a few people (myself included) went outside to experience the flakes close up. It eased up within a few minutes but settled well on the cars in that short time.

Then 30-40 minutes later (wasn’t really watching the clock) it started snowing again – this time much harder and for longer. We were leaving the restaurant at this time and walking up to the Carrington, and were quite impressed with the downdrafts and amount of snow falling. This time, it was sticking to the ground and on plants, not just cars, and for a time, it was quite blizzard-like, with the trees in Carrington Park bending and swaying in the wind and snow blowing everywhere. smile Lots of snow on the ground the next morning (Hinkler Park on Warialda/Katoomba Street had impress snow-drifts – for some reason, there seemed to be more snow there than anywhere else) and patches of snow persisted in the shade all through Saturday. On Saturday night, there was still snow in the backyard at the B&B we were staying in!
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QUEENSTOWN in the sth island..For this event

A report from DaveM
“Out of interest, I saw photos of this latest event for Queenstown and a number of cm’s of snow all over the main street etc.
Fair effort at about 140 odd metres elevation!!
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1272370/Re_Snow_31_July_2_Aug#Post1272370
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Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) Index..AAO

CLICK ON THE TITLE TO LOAD ALL FURTHER ENTRIES AT THE BASE OF THIS PAGE

SAM ( southern annular mode) Also referred to as the Antarctic Oscillation ( AAO )

TIME SERIES

The SAM was trending positive from 1965 to 1999

SAM 1960 to 2010

SOME LINKS AND RESOURCES TO UNDERSTANDING THE SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE
I will add to this list in the future
Feel free to post a comment on any information and links on the SAM.

TIME SERIES
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/month_aao_index.shtml
SAM time series

Of particular interest in the graph below …!!
is the hockey stick curve of positive SAM in the winter season data.

Since 2007/2008 the SAM has climbed ‘exponentially toward 2010.!!!

Notice this extreme positive phase is a seasonal anomaly for the SH winter period of JUNE/JULY/AUGUST.

In fact the summer and annual anomaly has levelled off or maybe even declined since 1998

1998 is considered as the maximum of the modern warm period by some cycle researchers.. Will the winter SAM start dipping negative as well?

Intuitively you would suspect a persistent negative SAM trend would be needed for a period of global cooling..?

…………The SAM index. SEASONAL..
Top.(.SUMMER. DJF 1947-2010)
Middle.( WINTER JJA ..1948-2010)
Bottom. (ANNUAL 1948-2010)

The yellow lines indicate 7-year Gaussian-type filtered values.
time series of SAM

RESOURCE LINK from
http://www.lasg.ac.cn/
Is There a Relationship between the SAM and Southwest Western …
http://www.lasg.ac.cn/UpLoadFiles/File/papers/2010/2010_JCLI_Feng_Li_Li.pdf

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CURRENT SAM/AAO ANOMALY

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/verf/new.aao.shtml

CURRENT AAO index

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      • ‘SNOWMI’ on a NEW AUSTRALIAN FORUM has constructed a discussion thread titled

“Cold Front Activity Controls and Trends”

‘Snowmi’ has commenced discussion on the links to the SAM index and cold fronts across Australia

You can follow and join the discussion here
http://www.weather.liway.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=4

You may have to register to view the discussion.
http://www.weather.liway.com/forums/index.php

This is a new weather and climate forum based in Australia since July 2013
The forum was developed as a result of the’ weatherzone forum’ closing its climate debate section which left contributors ‘short changed’ and bereft.
The owner of the forum ..’GB’..like myself felt a need to replace the hole that was left by the Weatherzone decision.
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/

I thank ‘snowmi’ ( a moderator and contributor at the http://www.weather.liway.com forum)for posting the excellent link of the time series data for the SAM

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