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Volcanoes and global cooling

Found this amazing essay published on National geographic

Colossal volcano behind ‘mystery’ global cooling finally found

The eruption devastated local Maya settlements and caused crop failures around the world

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/08/colossal-volcano-behind-mystery-global-cooling-found/?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=social::src=twitter::cmp=editorial::add=tw20190823science-colossalvolcanomystery::rid=&sf218005129=1


Some extracts

The ices of Greenland and Antarctica bear the fingerprints of a monster: a gigantic volcanic eruption in 539 or 540 A.D. that killed tens of thousands and helped trigger one of the worst periods of global cooling in the last 2,000 years. Now, after years of searching, a team of scientists has finally tracked down the source of the eruption.

The team’s work, published in Quaternary Science Reviews, lays out new evidence that ties the natural disaster to Ilopango, a now-dormant volcano in El Salvador. Researchers estimate that in its sixth-century eruption, Ilopango expelled the equivalent of 10.5 cubic miles of dense rock, making it one of the biggest volcanic events on Earth in the last 7,000 years. The blast was more than a hundred times bigger than the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption and several times larger than the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. It dealt the local Maya settlements a blow that forever altered their trajector……

el salvador

 

Ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica show spikes of sulfate, a byproduct of large volcanic eruptions, at 536 and either 539 or 540. The two volcanoes were so large and so violent, they launched sulfur gases and particles miles into the sky. Since this material reflected sunlight away from Earth’s surface, it triggered severe global cooling: One 2016 study found that the volcanoes decreased average global temperatures by as much as 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit……

……

geologists published new evidence that the historical “dust veil” of 536 was caused by a volcano. In the other, researchers announced that the Tierra Blanca Joven extended into marine sediments off the coast of El Salvador. The Tierra Blanca Joven eruption was even bigger than Dull and others thought.…….

………..

Dull’s team also revised their estimate of Ilopango’s size, taking into account the thickness and spread of Tierra Blanca Joven deposits. They say that Ilopango may have even dwarfed the 1815 Tambora eruption, a huge volcanic event that ushered in “a year without a summer” because of the global cooling it caused. Ilopango likely launched up to a million tons of sulfur miles into the sky, high enough for stratospheric winds to spread the aerosols worldwide and trigger global cooling.…..


The actual Research paper

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379119301465

Radiocarbon and geologic evidence reveal Ilopango volcano as source of the colossal ‘mystery’ eruption of 539/40 CE

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.07.037

 

 

 

 

 

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Climate shifts…natural variation

I have started this blog post because today l have found out all major search engines are re routing the search string ‘climate shift’.

If you enter this term into any search engine, it will respond with pages and pages of ‘climate change’

We are being prevented from viewing alternative theories to man made climate change theories or facts, folks.

I will make an attempt to collect some links to climate regime shift sites that focus on natural variability.

I have tried alternatives to google and they ALL redirect the term ‘climate shift’

…You can get around this by..

Using google scholar…

which will accept the string ‘climate shift’ and lead you to alternative research on the reasons for global temperature trends other than AGW

or

on on the main google search engine page use talking marks on the search string which over rides the ban on the term… climate shift

“climate shift”

 

 

 

 

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1998 Climate Shift

I was looking at some time series data in particular SH ozone and the AAO(SAM)

I noticed a clear and abrupt change around 1998 and onwards.

OZONE TIME SERIES

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Extratropics/figs5.shtml

ozone time zeries

AAO Time series

AAO time series1945 to 2011

1998 AAO climate shict

 

I thought l might check Google to see if researchers had documented a climate shift and the answer was yes.

There have been major climate shifts noted in 1925,1945,1975,1998

…………….

The Shifts Hypothesis – an alternative view of global climate change

source

The Shifts Hypothesis – an alternative view of global climate change

Guest post by Pavel Belolipetsky

( BTW..when  was searching for information on google for ‘climate shift’, l noted l got next to NOTHING..,It appears google have removed the term and given full priority to the term ‘climate change’.

I think l might change my search engine)

……..

 

 

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Townsville and Brisbane. Past Rainfall correlated with sunspot number

This research was conducted by ‘RetiredWeatherMan ‘ a retired BOM meteorologist.

‘RWM’ is an active member of Australian weather forums

http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=94&p=111657#p111657

…….

by retiredweatherman » Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:11 pm

The Queensland coastline from Bowen to Townsville has a more west-northwest orientation than the rest,
and even westerly in the Townsville region. The prevailing east-southeast trade winds therefore blow
more parallel to the coastline over this section producing lower rainfalls – the area being known as the
Dry Tropics. A range of hills from Cape Cleveland, northeast of Townsville runs to the south of
Townsville near Majors Creek, further protecting the Townsville region from the Trades. Therefore this
area is ideal to study for monsoonal influenced summer rains, with the monsoon flow being predominately
from the northeast to north. This region is also affected by PDO,ESNO,IOD and at the southern end of
MJO influences. And all these factors whether singly or in tandem can help to influence the rainfall
totals. As well as the coastline orientation, the lack of nearby coastal ranges largely negates rainfall
being boosted by the Trade Flow. My studies have shown these summer rainfalls may also be partly
influenced by the Solar Cycle in some instances, again whether singly or in tandem with other influences
as mentioned earlier. The attached graph shows the monsoonal summer rains, generally maximized between
November and April expressed as a percentage of the average of this 6 month period against the Solar Cycle
each year in January, back to reliable record gathering in 1872. For comparison is a similar graph for Brisbane
summer rain ( Dec to Mar ). Brisbane summer rainfall is more influenced by southern patterns then Townsville
therefore the similarities are not as well defined. One interesting parallel with the two sites is the very
long time it took to cast off the influence of the Federation Drought ( Brisbane more so than Townsville )
with the summer rainfall peaks moving generally upward roughly in line with the upwards movement of the
solar peaks from the Federation Drought period up to about 1960. The 2 graphs follow…..’

 

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Complete record of droughts at Manilla NSW from 1884.

By ‘surly bond’,an independent climate analyst at Manilla NSW , Australia.

Posted on ‘weather zone forum’ July 2019

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1502997/Re_NSW_rainfall_shortage_from_#Post1502997

Red colour marks times when rainfall was in the lowest one percent of occurrences. The graph is novel, in that the beginning of drought is marked as well as the end.

There were just six great droughts lasting more than one year: 1902, 1911, 1940, 1946, 1965, 2018.
Very long droughts persisted for forty years from 1910 to 1950, then they ceased for the next forty years.
The pattern does not match a model of climate change that supposes that droughts have been getting (a) more frequent or (b) more extreme.

Details are in posts such as:
https://climatebysurly.com/2019/06/08/rain-shortage-jan-2000-may-2019/

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What caused the record heat in Europe -June 2019?

Thanks to a post from Michael Ventrice on twitter the answer is straight forward.

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Winter storm JONAS East coat of USA Jan 2016

23rd Jan 2016…JONAS ..3rd biggest winter storm since 1869

reports the Courier Mail in Australia ( 25th jan 2016)

EAST COAST OF USA

http://www.attn.com/stories/5388/2016-winter-storm-jonas-east-coast

From nth Carolina to New york and as far west as kentucky

On saturday the3 23rd jan 2016 New york had 63.4cm of snow

that is close to the record of 68.2cm in 2006 the record for single day snow fall

This event also coincided with a high tide flooding beaches in cape Bay new Jersey

( courier mail )

TOTAL TRAVEL BAN FOR NEW YORK CITY

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/jan/23/blizzard-snowstorm-washington-new-york-east-coast#block-56a3bdd5e4b05f5c24ca596d

Photographer Giles Clarke sent these photos of the blizzard in New York City through GuardianWitness.

 CENTRAL PARK NEW YORK CITY
Deep snow drifts

CENTRAL PARK

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SYDNEY..Wettest start to January 2016 on record

NSW floods: Record rain brings chaos to Hunter amid search for missing sailor

EXTRACTS

A home is surrounded by floodwaters in Raymond Terrace.

A photo gallery of 17 photos from this link

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-06/nsw-weather-heavy-rain-flooding-hunter-downpours-forecast-sydney/7069792

” Dozens of residents in Raymond Terrace were ordered to evacuate, where the Hunter River broke its banks.

…On Tuesday night residents were evacuated from low-lying parts of the flood-ravaged town of Dungog,where wild weather led to three deaths less than a year ago.

..The BoM said the rainfall had broken weather records.

“In Newcastle, Nobby’s [weather] station recorded the wettest three-day rainfall total for January, and that’s records going back to 1862,” senior climatologist Agata Imielska said.

“They had 273.4 millimetres for the last three days.

“In fact, the wettest day was 200.6 millimetres and that was recorded over 24 hours to 9:00am to January 6 this year (today) — so that’s the wettest January day on record there.”

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-06/nsw-weather-heavy-rain-flooding-hunter-downpours-forecast-sydney/7069792