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Years with more than 22 DRY DAYS during SUMMER on the mid to North coast of NSW Australia.

SEABREEZE from weatherzone forum in Australia .

Has taken the time to note the years that have had more than 22 dry 

A lot of work has been put into this and the results are interesting.

5 cities have been selected

Coffs Harbour, Grafton, Yamba, Casino  and Lismore

Grafton records are from 1871 to 2018   !!!

Quote from ‘SEABREEZE’ from south west rocks on the coast of NSW

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I’ve looked to see how the current dry spell compares to previous ones during the summer-time along the NSW north coast.
It looks like extended dry spells during the summer were more common before the mid 1950s and have been pretty much absent since then until 2018. If this is a cyclical pattern, I would be expecting extended dry spells during the summer-time to occur from time-to-time over the decades ahead.
The length of the dry spell is a record for summer-time at Coffs, though not yet for the other towns.
The threshold for an extended dry spell for the towns listed below being more than three weeks (22 days or more) without any recordable rain.Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Coffs Harbour during or partly during summer (since 1900):
23 Dec 2018 to present – 26 days and counting
22 Dec 1993 to 14 Jan 1994 – 24 days
20 Jan 1952 to 11 Feb 1952 – 23 days
23 Feb 1943 to 17 Mar 1943 – 23 days
30 Jan 1939 to 20 Feb 1939 – 22 days
14 Nov 1913 to 5 Dec 1913 – 22 days
13 Dec 1902 to 4 Jan 1903 – 23 days

 

Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Grafton during or partly during summer (since 1871):
23 Dec 2018 to present – 26 days and counting
19 Jan 1952 to 11 Feb 1952 – 24 days
22 Feb 1943 to 17 Mar 1942 – 24 days
28 Jan 1926 to 23 Feb 1926 – 27 days
15 Jan 1915 to 6 Feb 1915 – 23 days
23 Dec 1904 to 15 Jan 1905 – 24 days
19 Dec 1902 to 11 Jan 1903 – 24 days
3 Dec 1893 to 1 Jan 1894 – 30 days
25 Feb 1883 to 24 Mar 1883 – 28 days
18 Nov 1881 to 18 Dec 1881 – 31 days
26 Nov 1876 to 17 Dec 1876 – 22 days
19 Nov 1875 to 14 Dec 1875 – 26 days

Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Yamba during or partly during summer (since 1877):
26 Dec 2018 to present – 23 days and counting
4 Jan 2018 to 27 Jan 2018 – 24 days
21 Dec 1954 to 11 Jan 1955 – 22 days
20 Jan 1952 to 11 Feb 1952 – 23 days
20 Dec 1932 to 11 Jan 1933 – 23 days
4 Feb 1926 to 26 Feb 1926 – 23 days
12 Jan 1912 to 8 Feb 1912 – 28 days
17 Jan 1900 to 8 Feb 1900 – 23 days
20 Jan 1892 to 15 Feb 1892 – 27 days
30 Jan 1886 to 24 Feb 1886 – 26 days
12 Nov 1883 to 5 Dec 1883 – 24 days
30 Dec 1879 to 23 Jan 1880 – 25 days

Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Casino during or partly during summer (since 1879):
24 Dec 2018 to present – 25 days and counting
4 Jan 2018 to 28 Jan 2018 – 25 days
19 Jan 1945 to 11 Feb 1945 – 24 days
1 Feb 1926 to 26 Feb 1926 – 26 days
15 Nov 1906 to 12 Dec 1906 – 28 days
22 Dec 1904 to 12 Jan 1905 – 22 days
19 Dec 1902 to 9 Jan 1903 – 22 days

Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Lismore during or partly during summer (since 1884):
25 Dec 2018 to present – 24 days and counting
18 Jan 1952 to 12 Feb 1952 – 26 days
11 Dec 1920 to 3 Jan 1921 – 24 days
19 Jan 1915 to 9 Feb 1915 – 22 days
3 Nov 1913 to 5 Dec 1913 – 33 days
5 Dec 1893 to 1 Jan 1894 – 28 days

..”

end quote

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CORRELATION RESEARCH COMMENCES jan 2019

As there was a 66 yr gap between the last dry spell ( 1952 – 2019) , l suggesteds to seabreeze the possibility of a link with the AMO which is linked closely to natural oscialltions in global temperature.

So l downloaded a time series graph of the AMO  from appinsys.com

I overlayed the dryspell years from the Grafton NSW Australia BOM data that seabreeze had compiled above.

amo vs dry days mid coast nsw

Of interest

5  of 7  Quasi intervals between   9 to 11 years …  ( consider the schwabe cycle perhaps)

The other 2 intervals  were of  5 and 25 years. The 5 year interval was the commencement of the 77 yr  dry spell pattern and commencement of an AMO cycle

The 25 yr interval was at the end of the AMO cycle

There is a break of 66 years ( 1952 – 2018) between extended summer dry spells . This break coincides with another AMO cycle very closely but with what appears to be a post offset of about 10 years of the max AMO peak.

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My hunch is that….

The summer dry spells are linked to solar cycles( Schwabes) AND the AMO

But there needs to be another cycle in play that switches on or off that connection.

and so with all research.

The search continues..   in to the future

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Comments and suggestions are welcome below

PLEASE CLICK ON THE HEADING TO LOAD ALL POSTS

 

 

 

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BOM… STATE of the CLIMATE REPORT 2018..AUSTRALIA

A very detailed report with lots of graphs and maps.

TEMPERATURE, RAINFALL, SEVERE EVENTS , CO2, OCEAN, FUTURE PROJECTIONS. FIRE WEATHER, SNOWFALL,COMPOUND EVENTS, CYCLONES, ANTARTIC

The report is copyright and does not permit me to copy and paste here

So here is the door to some interesting reading

http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/australias-changing-climate.shtml

 

 

 

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CYCLONE WATCH ………………. RESOURCES AND LINKS.

Some great links to  sites for cyclone watching and cyclone warning services

They are not listed alphabetically. Just scroll down

Please feel free to add in the comment section .

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CYCLOCANE

https://www.cyclocane.com/tropical-storm-risk/

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TROPICALTIDBITS

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

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Sudden stratospheric warming event.. Northern Hemisphere Jan 2019

We are talking about what’s going on in the upper air ( stratosphere) over the ARCTIC POLAR REGION.  A sudden up welling of warm air is called a stratospheric warming.

The event sends ‘shock waves’  across the globe.

Michael Ventrice from Weather company is reporting and following this event on twitter.

MJVentrice   @ twitter

On January 6th 2019..Michael posted

“The split of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex is now taking place.”

jan 6 2019 polar vortex split

 

JANUARY 10th…….. Michael posted

“Classic downward propagation of anomalous warm air following the SSWE”

polar temperature anomaly jan 10 _2019

JANUARY 11th 2019..Michael Ventrice from weather company and twitter .. posted

“The next step of a SSWE is the downward propagation of warmth into the troposphere. During this downward step, there is cooling over the Polar stratosphere, with warming over the equatorial Stratosphere. This tends to suppressed significant MJO activity moving for a couple months”

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TODD CRAWFORD IS ALSO TWEETING AND FOLLOWING THE SSW

Todd Crawford @tcrawf_nh Jan 10

MICHAEL VENTRICE POSTS 12 th January 2019.

The effect on the equatorial troposphere.

Michael posts

“It’s not often you get 15m/s+ westerly wind anomalies in the lower troposphere over the equatorial Date Line. This translates to 10m/s+ actual westerlies in this region, qualifying this as a true Westerly Wind Burst. Some discussions with at on this

event being the strongest WWB in this region of the world in our archives. I’d have to run an analysis to confirm, but I trust Paul. In the coming months, we should see a response in the Pacific Ocean in which grows El Nino later this Summer into Fall.

PAUL ROUNDY said

“Astonishing thing about that figure is that some people still think that WWBs are not associated with the MJO (because they are using the RMM index instead of focusing on the lower tropospheric wind). Upper trop flow and OLR signals occasionally distort the index.”

850hpa zonal wind anomalies_equator_ 11th dec 2018 to 6 jan 2019

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Another researcher of SSW on twitter to follow..       WILLIAM SEVIOUR

@WillSeviour


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Thanks to Michael and his followers

@MJVentrice

Meteorological Scientist | PhD in Tropical Meteorology from | 2018 Chair of

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Types of Australian weather. (1895) by Henry Ambrose Hunt

HENRY HUNT has categorised Australian weather regimes

with 40 PICTURES of synoptic patterns. !!!       in 1895

This is an extract from his paper

https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Types_of_Australian_weather

hunt _ australian weather 1895

LIST OF TYPES OF AUSTRALIAN WEATHER.

I.—Moving Anticyclones, Charts 1, 2, 3.
II.—Monsoonal Rain Storm, Charts 4, 5.
III.—Development of a Cyclonic Storm in Low Latitudes from a Monsoonal Depression, Charts 6, 7.
IV.—Development of a Cyclonic Storm in High Latitudes from a Monsoonal Depression, Charts 8, 9, 10.
V. Conditions favourable for Thunderstorms, Charts 11, 12.
VI.—Cyclonic Thunderstorms, Charts 13, 14.
VII.—Vertical and nearly straight Isobars, Charts 15, 16.
VIII.—Cyclones from North-West, Charts 17, 18, 19.
IX.—Cyclones from North-East, Charts 20, 21, 22.
X.—Tornadoes, Charts 23, 24.
XI.—South-East Gales, Charts 25, 26.
XII.—Development of Cyclones from a Λ Depression, Charts 27, 28.
XIII.—Westerly Winds, Charts 29, 30.
XIV.—Southerly Bursters, Charts 31, 32.
XV.—Black North-Easter, Chart 33.
XVI.—Winds Blowing Against Isobars, Chart 34.
XVII.—Summer Anticyclone, Chart 35.
XVIII.—Winter Anticyclone, Chart 36.
XIX.—Square Headed Λ Depression, Charts 37, 38.
XX.—Advent of an Antarctic Storm, Charts 39, 40.

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This is an excellent read.

The classification of synoptic patterns and the fact it was written in 1895

It is also not difficult for an amateur to read.

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A Stalled synoptic pattern ..Australian summer 2018_2019

stalled synoptic pattern nov_dec_ jan 2018_2019

The synoptic pattern above ……stalled over Australia from about NOV 2018 , all through DEC 2018 and is still current at time of writing. ( Jan 11th 2019)

Persistent ridging on the eastern quadrant of Australia.

Contracted westerly belt .. Which is not unusual for summer

A big dip in tropical isobars right down to 35 s

Cyclone  Penny ( Jan 2019) could not transition south due to ridging in the Tasman blocking

The stalled pattern caused heatwaves as hot air from the interior was directed southward

Very hot temperatures in the interior as no cold fronts or cooler air from the south advected.

Storm lines persisted in the same place as the interior troughing axis remained quasi stationary.

Sydney  were included in many places with severe storms almost daily.

Noting the AAO/SAM had been positive since the first week of November 2018 and was still positive at time of writing 11th jan 2019. That is approximately 63 days so far

6_1_2019 mslp corelated with positive aao

The monsoon trough has not been over the top end of Australia until recently

Thanks to BOM and ACCESS model

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml

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FEB 2017_Perth in West Australia hit by record rainfall

“The Swan River in Perth is expected to peak at 1.6 metres early on Sunday as the runoff from the flooded Wheatbelt region reaches the city.

Torrential rain swelled rivers and washed away roads across WA on Saturday, with the state’s Wheatbelt and Goldfields hardest hit,

while Perth received its second highest rainfall on record on Friday, with more than 114mm raining down on the city.”

 

 

source

https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/34393400/hottest-of-the-lot-record-breaking-heatwave-to-continue-in-nsw-qld-today/#page1

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FEB 2017 HEATWAVE _EASTERN AUSTRALIA

source news article
https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/34393400/hottest-of-the-lot-record-breaking-heatwave-to-continue-in-nsw-qld-today/#page1

HOT! HOT! HOT! Where the heatwave will strike today

Brisbane: 39C
Birdsville (Qld): 47C
Warwick (Qld): 46C
Tamworth (NSW): 44C
Moree (NSW) 46C
Bourke (NSW) 47C

BOM forecaster Dean Narramore told AAP.

“We saw on Saturday an incredible amount of records broken in NSW and that heat is just moving north for Sunday.”

Four Queensland towns set their highest ever recorded temperatures on Saturday as Brisbane reached 37C.

The city is tipped to reach 39C on Sunday, while several towns in southwestern Queensland, including Birdsvillle, could hit 47C.

Nicola Scafetta: On the astronomical origin of the Hallstatt oscillation found in radiocarbon and climate records throughout the Holocene.

NICOLA SCAFETTA SEPTEMBER 2016 “Hallstatt oscillation (about 2318 year period), which is observed in climate and solar records is a major stable resonance of the solar system. The paper also evaluates the other major planetary stable resonances and we found all other typical oscillations found in climate and solar records such as a quasi 20-year oscillation, a quasi 60-year oscillation, the 82-97 year Gleissberg oscillation and the 159-185 year Jose oscillation (and others).”

Tallbloke's Talkshop

fig1-scafetta

Nicola Scafetta writes:

Dear all,

it was a pleasure to meet you at London. Some of you asked me about my paper in press about a link between astronomical, solar and climate oscillations. Here it is:

Scafetta, N., Milani, F., Antonio Bianchini, A., Ortolani, S.: On the astronomical origin of the Hallstatt oscillation found in radiocarbon and climate records throughout the Holocene. Earth-Science Reviews 162, 24–43, 2016. There is a free access to the article, and is valid for anybody until November 10, 2016 by using this link  http://authors.elsevier.com/a/1TlSB2weQTZcD

(Permanent copy here)

The importance of the article is that it demonstrates quite clearly that the long Hallstatt oscillation (about 2318 year period), which is observed in climate and solar records is a major stable resonance of the solar system. The paper also evaluates the other major planetary stable resonances and we found all other typical oscillations found in climate and…

View original post 121 more words

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Fibonacci and the earths climate

It is well known that the universe is not a chaotic system but governed by laws that are predictable. All of creation exhibits order. The Fibonacci series and the ‘golden numbers’ are found in all ordered and stable components of all living and non living things.

https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/02/20/a-remarkable-discovery-all-solar-system-periods-fit-the-fibonacci-series-and-the-golden-ratio-why-phi/

So why wouldn’t we find Fibonacci numbers in the weather and earths climate.

I have started this post on Tom Mangos request and posted his table of Fibonacci and conjunction cycles as requested. Tom studies the sun, moon  and the large planets Jupiter and Saturn and  there links to the earths climate .

fibonacci_1and-conjunctipn-cycles