Image

Stratospheric warming and a central polar vortex split in the Southern Hemisphere 2019

source

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal

The above animation shows 2 warmings spots .. (edit.. sorry ONE warming spot , movinv west to east)at about latitude 60s commencing the first week of June 2019 .

They appear to be fully formed a few weeks later in the last week of June. The week of this post.

The AAO was positive during the month of June 2019 but is forecast by half the ensemble models to go strongly negative in the coming weeks.

I am not sure of the link between the Stratosphere warming and the AAO but will be on the look out.

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107 comments on “Stratospheric warming and a central polar vortex split in the Southern Hemisphere 2019

  1. Note to self.Read
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018JD029321

    Seasonal Evolution of Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling in the Southern Hemisphere and Implications for the Predictability of Surface Climate
    E.‐P. Lim
    H. H. Hendon
    D. W. J. Thompson
    First published: 22 October 2018
    https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029321
    Plain Language Summary

    We have explored the seasonal evolution of the strength of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric polar vortex and its coupling to the lower atmosphere in 1979–2017, using atmospheric reanalyses that assimilate observational data. Variations in the strength of the Antarctic circumpolar flow in the troposphere during austral late spring to early summer are found to be coupled to variations in position and strength of the stratospheric vortex as high as the stratopause and as early as the preceding June, notably higher and earlier than indicated in previous studies. This suggests that variations in the winter upper stratospheric jet can serve as a potentially important source of predictability for SH surface climate in the late spring–early summer. We explore the physical processes associated with the seasonal evolution of SH stratosphere‐troposphere coupling and its impacts on surface climate.

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