Long Paddock Australian seasonal forecasts

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Mega Indian monsoon failure .. The next one is?

Research and forecasting by IAN WILSON says the next BIG ONE could be 2018-2020..25% chance

Wilson, Ian R.G., 2009,

Can We Predict the Next Indian Mega-Famine?

Energy and Environment, Vol 20,
Numbers 1-2, pp. 11-24.
bengal famine


Catastrophic multi-year failure of the Indian monsoon has caused at least eight
mega-famines in India over the last 1100 years.

Historical data shows that sevenout of the eight mega-famines have either started within ± one year of the year of greatest asymmetry in the Sun’s motion about the Solar System’s centre-of-mass,
or 11 years ± one year after this event.
The Sun is currently experiencing a maximum in the asymmetry of its motion about the centre-of-mass.

Evidence is presented to show that there is almost a 1-in-4 the chance that there will be another
Indian mega-famine in 2018-20.

While the chance of such a catastrophic event occurring is small, it is large enough that the governments on the Indian subcontinent
should take precautionary measures to confront this potentially
devastating threat.
Ian Wilsons comments at Tallbloke blog
26th June 2014
The current onset of the 2014 Indian Monsoon is two weeks late and down 38 %
on integrated all-India rainfall, similar to what happened in 2009.

Let’s hope that is not an indicator of an upcoming multi-year failure of the
Indian Monsoon in about 4 – 5 years time.

Hopefully we are better off to help these people next time
Frightening pictures here!!
Absolutely sickening !!


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GEOFF SHARP from blog

The Massive Northern Hemisphere Winters Set to Continue.

Posted Tue, 07/30/2013 – 20:15 by Geoff Sharp on ‘Tallbloke’ blog

hemisphere ice cover 2013
picture above sourced from


“At first glance it looks like a graphic from a Discovery Channel programme about a distant ice age. But this astonishing picture shows the world as it is today ( February 2011)- with half the Northern Hemisphere covered with snow and ice”

Read more:

Please take the time to visit the above link from the daily mail
The photography is jaw droppingly spectacular

Geoff points out that he has previously successfully predicted the past cold winters of the northern Hemisphere
from his blog


Geoff was inspired by a number of scientists who maintained
the Sun is modulated by the planets.

His website ….pays tribute to these great researchers and Geoff Sharp is compelled to continue their work..
and doing very well may l add…

quote from Geoff
“Thanks to CARL SMITH who has recently left us we have new knowledge that significantly adds to JOSE, LANDSCHEIDT & CHARVATOVA’s work.”


Geoff Sharp: Solar based NH Winter forecast
located here

    EXTRACTED HIGHLIGHTS in point form

“During what will be known as the Landscheidt Minimum we have so far experienced massive winter events especially in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 3 years.
This coming winter event will be no different
as the solar conditions continue to look weak during the very low cycle max of solar cycle 24,
– the cool Pacific Decadal Oscillation ( PDO ) conditions also look to prevail

-The current E Ultra Violet levels are still very low and are not expected to increase according to my prediction for at least 25 years,

-the cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation ( PDO) which normally lasts 30 years is just beginning and should encourage La Nina conditions over El Nino.

-The position of the NH jet stream has been influenced by the Arctic Oscillation ( AO ) or Northern AO over the past 3-4 NH winters.
Last year the neg AO directed the jet stream to be most destructive over western Europe and the USA.
This year could be different in respect to where the most severe impacts will be felt.

-The Quasi biennial oscillation( QBO …upper air winds in the stratosphere) which looks to be involved with the northern polar vortex breakups is moving towards its westerly phase, this phase is not as conducive to negative AO formations, as the planetary winds are not encouraged as much to travel north to impact the polar vortex and the associated impacts on the AO. If this trend continues we would be less likely to see as much negative AO activity as last year which will shift the jet stream position to impact Eastern Europe and China.