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After the stalled synoptic pattern of Jan 2019.
I thought l would continue posting . The east coast ridging has finally budged since NOV 2018 ( today is 7th feb 2019)The synoptic below shows the first troughing we have had since then. THE AAO was highly positive during this summer period
Fi
Finally a change in synoptic pattern after 2 months
This pattern is different and probably transitional
FE
westerly belt replaces the high in the Bight. Signs the westerly belt is becoming more zonal ( wavy). The lack of MSLP gradient is evident on the mainland
CRIKEY !#&@ ...... IT'S THE WEATHER CYCLES 
Cold front arriving 8th Sept VIC
https://weathercycles.files.wordpress.com/2019/09/8th-sept-2019-radar-vic.jpg
A few very moist cold fronts on the way for Tasmania . Week of the 11th Sept 2019
First
For Victoria
Weak trough with Indian ocean infeedm15th sept 96hr forecast
Next rain for Sth NSW and Sydney and surrounds Monday 16th and 17th Sept 2019
T + 78hrs forecast ACC g
and the final 24hr forecast
T+96hrs ACC g
Surface trough with tropical dip in isobars . Later, possibly forming an onshore low.
From Tuesday 17th sept and into 18th Sept .I will guess some storm activity.
and then after that on thursday 19th, we have an easterly moist onshore stream from the Tasman possibly giving some coastal actvity on the thursday.
T+150hr forecast ACCg..Thursday 19th Sept 2019
Longwave trough to a very northerly 25s latitude possibly giving most parts of the state a storm band and some precipitation. A welcome event for SA
The possibility of some reasonable rain for dry , parched areas of NSW t+162 hr forecast 21st September 2019
24hr forecast update
ACCESS G has done a downgrade of this troughing.
It no longer suggests a low circulation forming on the coast and that puts a lid on the bigger potential.
ACC giving most to NE NSW coast and the lighter signal northward up the coast to the mid coast of QLD.
The event a bit closer now. The first signs of rain in NE NSW and SE QLD on tuesday 17th around 4pm
Long wave trough t +144hrs Sunday 22nd Sept 2019
Rain band and possible spring time embedded storms
NW/SE orientation
From mid NSW coast to outback sunshine coast
Anything is appreciated
Friday 19th Sept.
Long wave trough. Very moist southerly feeding in to the backside of the trough
A strong 1040 High near NZ may contribute to strong pre frontal winds ahead of the rain band.
Possible embedded thunderstorms
A nice long precip’ band from 28s down to the coast.
Could be a nice event for Adelaide and the peninsula
Today 21st sept 2019
Onshore showers . Dew point 17 deg c
A positive IOD is known to be correlated with a reduction in Australian rainfall
However l have noted over the years that there are 2 parameters that can overcome the lower rainfall
One. A meridonal jetstream pattern both polar and sub polar can direct moisture down to mid latitudes regardless of the IOD phase.
Two.. A tropical dip in isobars which can draw moist N easterlies in from the coral and the sub tropical trough gives the convection.
There is an example of this in ACC g this week
T+ 150hrs forecast
25th September 2019
Trough and rain signal for SE QLD
A tropical dip in isobars in NW QLD on thursday 26th sept
and trough 27th sept .
Noticing how dry this trough is. SE QLD just catching a patch of more favorable conditions
Significant drop in equatorial isobars
Something for SW WA.Tropical dip in isobars with an embedded low.
T+96hrs forecast
Following on from above. The closed low migrates east toward the Bight, giving SE SA its northern flank.
A weak precip’ signal currently
The following day on VIC
Tasmania has quite a few rain bands coming through this week.
Thursday 3rd and 4th Oct 2019 For starters
8th oct 2019
ECL NSW
16th oct 2019 trough vic and nsw
17th oct 2019 Trough line . South east QLD
24thOct 2019
Trough for SA and VIC
24thOctober2019
trough Victoria.
Strong hot NWesterly ahead of the wind change line.
Wind change overnight about 3am
Weak precipitation signal across all of the state morning in the west and friday arvo’ in the west.
Precip’ signal extends to east outback SA to southern NSW on friday
27th Oct 2019 Tropical dip in isobars through QLD to sunshine coast