Thanks to ken kato ,for posting on weatherzone forum
Fijian Prime Minister, J.V Bainimarama released the following statement: “Tropical Cyclone Winston has begun its assault on Fiji. It is being described as one of the powerful in recorded history – a Category 5 cyclone with winds approaching 300 kilometres an hour. As a nation, we are facing an ordeal of the most grievous kind
The storm is carrying average winds of 220km/h, with gusts of up to 315km/h recorded, according to Fiji’s Meteorological Service.
BOM CYCLONE WATCH
source of picture
SOME LINKS to OFFICIAL FORECASTS
2014–15 Australian region cyclone season
OFFICIAL FORECAST.. Download link
“The outlook called for a near average number of tropical cyclones for the 2014–15 season, with eight to twelve named tropical cyclones, to occur between 135°E and 120°W compared to an average of 10. At least four of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while three could become category 4 severe tropical cyclones, they also noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone was unlikely to occur”
“Bureau of Meteorology
Since the start of the 2008–09, there has only been one list that the Bureau of Meteorology have assigned names to tropical cyclones from. However the Bureau of Meteorology still operates the various TCWCs in Perth, Darwin & Brisbane. They monitor all tropical cyclones that form within the Australian region, issuing special advisories when a cyclone forms in either TCWC Jakarta’s or Port Moresby’s area of responsibility.
The next name to be used within the basin is Kate.
NEXT CYCLONE NAMES
Kate (unused) Lam (unused) Marcia (unused) Nathan (unused) Olwyn (unused) Quang (unused) Raquel (unused)
Stan (unused) Tatjana (unused) Uriah (unused) Yvette (unused) Alfred (unused) Blanche (unused) Caleb (unused)
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The ITCZ ( intertropical convergence zone ) is surprisingly close to the equator for mid October 2014
Some healthy southerly flow down the west coast pacific bodes well for cross equatorial in N/west Australia as the season commences this November 2014
Also some very strong high pressure systems in the mid-Latitudes ( up to 1035 in the Bight mid October)
Some evidence of cyclogenesis along the equatorial line currently with2 cells in the SH
I like the look of this for some early activity..
Today ( 22nd April 2014) ACCESS has a tropical low formed well north of Darwin ( 130 E 5s)
On Thursday the 24th this storm shifts a little south toward Darwin vicinity and hangs around up there for 3 or 4 days. That should give them a decent drenching
ACCESS G has this low/TC still close to Darwin as late as T +150hrs on tonight’s forecast
News article from weatherzone on this event
An INVEST is already current for this low ( 97p)
Looking at the sat pic’tonight there is considerable enhanced convection and banding present. Indicating cyclogenesis is well on the way. Some nice symmetrical structure as well curently
which has ben causing devastation around the Solomon islands as a tropical storm
The ACCESS model suggests a westward tracking toward the far nth tip of QLD by the 10th April . Although ACCESS R suggests this could be earlier.
ACCESS R suggesting TC status as early as the 6th /7th April where as ACCESSG a few days later about the 9th April.
There is likely to be considerable land interference from New guinea and islands
ACCESS suggests the low will encompass the whole of Papua new Guinea with the TC embedded in the southern flank near the Far nth QLD peninsula
A news article from weatherzone also confirms likely TC
ACCESS G is indicating a very large intense cyclone developing.
Currently there is an INVEST for this low
SH99 2014 – INVEST
LOOKING GOOD ALREADY
ACCESS suggesting this TC will pass close by FIJI at 981 hPa around the 12th March 2014
and then tracks south west to make landfall on the tip of the Nth Island of new Zealand approaching the Northern tip at 981 hpa
Here is a snap of the wind streams that will update as the days go by
I will take a snap for archives soon
Very impressed with the wind stream pattern below. Cross equatorial feding widely across the pacific and a very large high to provide equally large input from the south east.. A massive structure !
THe TC has a small parasite low’ attached to its eastern flank Looking like Mother.. and what a’ mother’!! and little daughter, pimple on an almost perfect storm.
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ACCESS t + 138 hrs is suggesting a tropical storm possible TC CAT 1 around the 9th March 2014. Cancelled.. to lw pressure trough. LOw moving east toward GOC
with enhanced cross equatorial flow and some in-feed from high pressure in-feed into the southern quadrant from the east coast at 25s across the interior
The possible TC near the mid north coast is in transition here in this snap as a CAT 1 cylone or intense hybrid low pressure system
Thanks to..’steve’ from weatherzone forum for reminding me its time to start a post for this season
“The northern hemisphere system will be the 3rd tropical system for 2014 (for the NW Pacific Basin).
It is normal to see this happening during March.”
Thanks to ‘popeye’ from the same WZ thread for this excellent surface windstream capture !! of this TS in the NH on the 1st March 2014 and a twin over the border in the SH in the coral sea
Link to 2014 Typhoon thread:
All further updates will appear in the comments section below
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ACCESS has the current Coral sea low (157E 11s) tracking south west toward the Far nth Queensland coast. To make landfall as a marginal CAT 1 or strong tropical storm at about 17S on the coast when l looked yesterday
Close to Cairns. 5th march
Tonights forecast has the same day, wed the 5th March but has shifted the TS northward at 13S
13S is about the Cape York Penninsula
ACCESS indicating cyclogenesis underway centred close to Wyndham in north west WA tonight
ACCESS suggesting likely CAT 1 with an initial transition down the coastline before heading inland which is clearly seen rotating on the national animated radar tonight
ACCESS has this twin but tiny circulation shifting westward to combine with likely TC Gillian in the coming days
This snap of the 1km winds tonight shows the developing tropical storm is within an elongated area of the monsoon trough. Note the small circulation near the Gulf of Carpentaria also on the monsoon trough
and note the decline in cross equatorial flow across the coral sea on this snap
A cyclone watch has been issued with a track map