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Murray-Darling catchment

The Murray–Darling Basin is the largest and most complex river system in Australia. It runs from Queensland, through New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory, Victoria and South Australia, spanning 77,000 kilometres of rivers, many of which are connected.

Towns and rural communities across the Basin rely on a healthy river system—our economy, food security and well being depend on it, now and into the future.

https://www.mdba.gov.au/discover-basin


Please scroll down to comments below for further information, comments or latest news on climate and the basin.

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Rain trends vs -ENSO-IPO: Manilla NSW by surlybond

From 1999, rainfall at Manilla NSW matched ENSO only up to 2011, before the IPO became positive. This graphical log compares the rainfall at Manilla NSW with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) through the 21st century to date. Values shown are anomalies, smoothed. (See Notes below on “Data”, “Smoothing”, […]

via 21-C Rain-ENSO-IPO: Line graphs — climate by surly

Hot Days in Manilla NSW Australia and ENSO

‘SURLY BOND’ FROM MANILLA IN NSW AUSTRALIA HAS NOTED SOME INTERESTING TEMPERATURE CYCLES and their C0RREIati0n WITH ENS0
http://climatebysurly.com/2015/07/08/el-nino-and-my-climate/

https://climatebysurly.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/ensomanillatmax.gif

http://climatebysurly.com/2015/07/18/hot-days-and-enso/

“The reality of this temperature curve is supported by its close similarity to the recognised curve of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as read from NINO3.4 Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies.”

More frequent hot days do not come in a three year cycle, but in a 1.5 year cycle related to ENSO.

https://climatebysurly.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/hotdlogwithtmax.gif
“This curve swings up and down rather regularly, with five peaks and five dips in the fifteen years. That is, more frequent hot days seem to come in a three-year cycle.”
“There are about 10 peaks and 10 dips in the 15.5 year curve. They define a cycle of about 1.5 years wavelength. ” . .
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http://climatebysurly.com/2015/07/18/hot-days-and-enso/
http://climatebysurly.com/2015/07/08/el-nino-and-my-climate/

climate by surly

Graphical log of max temps and hot days

More frequent hot days do not come in a three year cycle, but in a 1.5 year cycle related to ENSO.

The Hot Day data set

The graph of number of hot days per year

Log of annual hot days in 16 yearsThe graph on the left is one I posted earlier. The height of each data point represents the number of hot days in a year, plotted near January. The pattern of points led me to join them by a smooth curve. This curve swings up and down rather regularly, with five peaks and five dips in the fifteen years. That is, more frequent hot days seem to come in a three-year cycle.
Is this cycle “real”? Should we look for a cause? Will the cycle continue?
Probably not! The points of measurement are one year apart. Cycles that are only three years long may be “aliases” of different and shorter undetectable cycles. (See Note below on Nyquist frequency.)

View original post 653 more words

Did ENSO and the “Monster” Kelvin Wave Contribute to the Record High Global Surface Temperatures in 2014?

BOB TISDALE investigates the causes of the record warm global temperatures for 2014

He concludes
“If there was any doubt, the ENSO-related warming of the tropical Pacific in 2014 did contribute to the record high global sea surface temperatures, but without the exceptional weather-related warming of the extratropical North Pacific (Figure 12), 2014 would not have been a record warm sea surface year globally (Figure 7).

https://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/figure-7.png

https://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/figure-4.png

Bob Tisdale - Climate Observations

Of course they did.

Those who have followed the 2014/15 El Niño series from its start back in April will recall all the hoopla about the strong downwelling Kelvin wave that was traveling from west to east along the Cromwell Current (aka the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent).  Based on the size of that Kelvin wave, alarmists were anticipating a super El Niño that would cause record-high global surface temperatures, but the super El Niño failed to form.

The strong Kelvin wave earlier this year took a massive volume of warm water that had been below the surface of the West Pacific Warm Pool, where it was not included in the surface temperature record, and allowed that warm water to be spread across the surface of the tropical Pacific, where it was then included in the surface temperature record.   The surfaces of the tropical Pacific had to warm in response. They could…

View original post 2,026 more words

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Nino/ Neutral/ Nina.. 2014 ??

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The ENSO season ( Nina / Nino ) is noted in the southern hemisphere as an Autumn to Autumn sequence.
The start of autumn in the southern hemisphere is March. All eyes to the ENSO indicators .

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There is currently plenty of media from the academics noting the climate modelling is suggesting an El Nino of sorts for 2014. Most evidence presented as been some warm anomalies in the south west pacific ocean
It is thought that Kelvin waves are pushing this sub surface warm anomaly toward the central and east pacific
Some are touting anomalies of plus 6 deg c
However this map below posted by Mike Hauber forum member of WZ forum is indicating anomalies of plus 2 deg c near the date line
You can follow this discussion here
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1251416/16

There are many other indicators of an El Nino apart from sub surface pacific temperatures / upwelling and downwelling

For this post we will start with a snap of the current sub surface temperatures across the pacific equator

The warm anomaly is clearly seen east of the dateline in the central pacific
This is not a surface anomaly map

sub surface temp anomlay pacific ocean march 2014
source
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/

ALL FURTHER INFORMATION/COMMENTS FOR ENSO 2014 WILL APPEAR IN THE COMMENTS SECTION BELOW
PLEASE CLICK ON THE TITLE OF THIS POST TO LOAD COMMENTS IF NECESSARY

By weathercycles Posted in ENSO
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ENSO..Pacific Ocean basin 2016_2015_2014

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I was reading and article by Max Gongalez of weatherzone news
about the possibility of an El Nino in 2014
Article here
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/increasing-odds-for-el-nino-to-affect-australian-weather-late-2014/27106

EXTRACT

El Nino

(the warm phase) occurs when warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) prevail over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (from late winter to late autumn),

accompanied by high atmospheric pressure over the western Pacific.

This high atmospheric pressure typically leads to lower than average rainfall over Australia during El Nino years.

La Nina

(cool phase) on the other hand, occurs when cooler than average SSTs prevail over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

This is accompanied by a low atmospheric pressure over the western Pacific,

thus typically bringing above average rainfall to mainland Australia during La Nina years.
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I thought l would follow this ENSO season by testing this hypothesis/ fact

I will post the global MSLP ( mean sea level pressure) anomalies in the Pacific every month and observe the changing surface MSLP anomaly pattern

The February 2014 MSLP anomalies show low pressure anomalies in both the east and west basin. Although there is a band of high pressure over Australia and the far west basin of the pacific

According to theory .. Low pressure in the east basin is a la Nina indicator

I’m not sure?
I thought low pressure was a symptom of warm SST anomalies..?

mslp global feb 2014

DATA SOURCE
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/cmb.cgi?page=top

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I will post MSLP updates each month for 2014 in the comments section below
Please click on the title to load the comments section if it is not there

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Follow ENSO 2014 forum here
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1225860/12016

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Learning about ENSO

Thought its about time l collected a few references for this important climate phenomena
I will add to the reference list by adding links to research and information as time goes by

CLICK on the HEADING of this post to load all further information and posts at the base of this page

ENSO

Definition:
n. “El Niño/Southern Oscillation; an occasional shift in winds and ocean currents, centered in the South Pacific region, with worldwide consequences for climate and biological systems.” (Source: Ricklefs)

trade wind relaxing by Bob tisdale
picture from Bob Tisdale from the link to his paper below

The first post is from an expert who pretty much studies ENSO full time from his blog
BOB TISDALE
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2013/10/22/enso-basics-westerly-wind-bursts-initiate-an-el-nino/

He has titled this post
ENSO Basics: Westerly Wind Bursts Initiate an El Niño

Posted on October 22, 2013

By weathercycles Posted in ENSO
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GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY 2019_2016-2015-2014-2013-

CLICK ON TITLE TO LOAD ALL ENTRIES BELOW..
I COLLECT SNAPS OF THE GLOBAL SEA TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OVER TIME

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssn&inv=0&t=cur

22nd July 2014

22nd july sst anomlay

JULY 7th 2014

july 2014 global sst

MAY 21st 2014

may 2014 global SST anomaly

APRIL 2014

april 2014 sst global anomaly UNIYSS

22nd FEB 2014

global sst feb 2nd 2014

1st DECEMBER 2013

dec 2013 sst global

2nd NOVEMBER 2013

nov2nd 2013 globsal ocean sst

5th OCTOBER 2013

oct 2013 SST anomaly

AUGUST 2013

aug 2013

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SOI…. Southern Oscillation Index

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Definition from BOM

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml

 

“The Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI, gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. The SOI is calculated using the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin.

Sustained negative values of the SOI lower than −7 often indicate El Niño episodes. These negative values are usually accompanied by sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, a decrease in the strength of the Pacific Trade Winds, and a reduction in winter and spring rainfall over much of eastern Australia and the Top End.

Sustainted positive values of the SOI greater than +7 are typical of a La Niña episode. They are associated with stronger Pacific trade winds and warmer sea temperatures to the north of Australia. Waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become cooler during this time. Together these give an increased probability that eastern and northern Australia will be wetter than normal.

Technical details

There are a few different methods for calculating the SOI. The method used by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is the Troup SOI which is the standardised anomaly of the Mean Sea Level Pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin.”

 

CURRENT SOI.. 30 day moving average

current SOI

source
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Long term time series

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/influences/timeline/

soi 1876 fom1896soi 1896 to 1916soi 1918 to 1938soi 1940 to 1960soi 1962 to 1982soi 1984 to 2004soi 2004 to 2018