https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/
Scroll down to the comments below to view all Long paddock seasonal forecasts from 2019 and onwards.
Category DROUGHT
Murray-Darling catchment
The Murray–Darling Basin is the largest and most complex river system in Australia. It runs from Queensland, through New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory, Victoria and South Australia, spanning 77,000 kilometres of rivers, many of which are connected.
Towns and rural communities across the Basin rely on a healthy river system—our economy, food security and well being depend on it, now and into the future.
https://www.mdba.gov.au/discover-basin
Please scroll down to comments below for further information, comments or latest news on climate and the basin.
Click on the heading to load if necessary
Rain trends vs -ENSO-IPO: Manilla NSW by surlybond
From 1999, rainfall at Manilla NSW matched ENSO only up to 2011, before the IPO became positive. This graphical log compares the rainfall at Manilla NSW with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) through the 21st century to date. Values shown are anomalies, smoothed. (See Notes below on “Data”, “Smoothing”, […]
Climate shifts…natural variation
I have started this blog post because today l have found out all major search engines are re routing the search string ‘climate shift’.
If you enter this term into any search engine, it will respond with pages and pages of ‘climate change’
We are being prevented from viewing alternative theories to man made climate change theories or facts, folks.
I will make an attempt to collect some links to climate regime shift sites that focus on natural variability.
I have tried alternatives to google and they ALL redirect the term ‘climate shift’
…You can get around this by..
Using google scholar…
which will accept the string ‘climate shift’ and lead you to alternative research on the reasons for global temperature trends other than AGW
or
on on the main google search engine page use talking marks on the search string which over rides the ban on the term… climate shift
“climate shift”
2018/19 : the second-warmest financial year on record in Australia
Climate of the 2018–19 financial year ..Report by BOM
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a034.shtml2018–19 financial year
‘…it was the second-warmest financial year on record’
……
.My comment… Since when are ‘financial years’ the time frame for the primary seasonal report?
A study of significant heat or drought in Australia
I will just collect information and post links.
IN PROGRESS,..
SUMMER 2018/2019
A persistent pos AAO…Stalled synoptic pattern…with the Tasman high centred west of NZ..,.. jetstreams well south and zonal ( not wavy).. monsoonal activity mainly up in the far nth qld
map source:
Comments and information from weatherzone forum >>>>>>>>
Rainfall deciles… Archive …. Australia.
TEMPERATE ANOMALIES…. SUMMER of 2018/2019
KEN KATO..said “Above is what Australia’s hottest summer on record looks like in the decile maps covering the last 3 months.”
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1492763/60
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Scroll down to the comments for all other entries
Click the heading of this post if the comments aren’t loaded
Years with more than 22 DRY DAYS during SUMMER on the mid to North coast of NSW Australia.
SEABREEZE from weatherzone forum in Australia .
Has taken the time to note the years that have had more than 22 dry
A lot of work has been put into this and the results are interesting.
5 cities have been selected
Coffs Harbour, Grafton, Yamba, Casino and Lismore
Grafton records are from 1871 to 2018 !!!
Quote from ‘SEABREEZE’ from south west rocks on the coast of NSW
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”
I’ve looked to see how the current dry spell compares to previous ones during the summer-time along the NSW north coast.
It looks like extended dry spells during the summer were more common before the mid 1950s and have been pretty much absent since then until 2018. If this is a cyclical pattern, I would be expecting extended dry spells during the summer-time to occur from time-to-time over the decades ahead.
The length of the dry spell is a record for summer-time at Coffs, though not yet for the other towns.
The threshold for an extended dry spell for the towns listed below being more than three weeks (22 days or more) without any recordable rain.Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Coffs Harbour during or partly during summer (since 1900):
23 Dec 2018 to present – 26 days and counting
22 Dec 1993 to 14 Jan 1994 – 24 days
20 Jan 1952 to 11 Feb 1952 – 23 days
23 Feb 1943 to 17 Mar 1943 – 23 days
30 Jan 1939 to 20 Feb 1939 – 22 days
14 Nov 1913 to 5 Dec 1913 – 22 days
13 Dec 1902 to 4 Jan 1903 – 23 days
It looks like extended dry spells during the summer were more common before the mid 1950s and have been pretty much absent since then until 2018. If this is a cyclical pattern, I would be expecting extended dry spells during the summer-time to occur from time-to-time over the decades ahead.
The length of the dry spell is a record for summer-time at Coffs, though not yet for the other towns.
The threshold for an extended dry spell for the towns listed below being more than three weeks (22 days or more) without any recordable rain.Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Coffs Harbour during or partly during summer (since 1900):
23 Dec 2018 to present – 26 days and counting
22 Dec 1993 to 14 Jan 1994 – 24 days
20 Jan 1952 to 11 Feb 1952 – 23 days
23 Feb 1943 to 17 Mar 1943 – 23 days
30 Jan 1939 to 20 Feb 1939 – 22 days
14 Nov 1913 to 5 Dec 1913 – 22 days
13 Dec 1902 to 4 Jan 1903 – 23 days
Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Grafton during or partly during summer (since 1871):
23 Dec 2018 to present – 26 days and counting
19 Jan 1952 to 11 Feb 1952 – 24 days
22 Feb 1943 to 17 Mar 1942 – 24 days
28 Jan 1926 to 23 Feb 1926 – 27 days
15 Jan 1915 to 6 Feb 1915 – 23 days
23 Dec 1904 to 15 Jan 1905 – 24 days
19 Dec 1902 to 11 Jan 1903 – 24 days
3 Dec 1893 to 1 Jan 1894 – 30 days
25 Feb 1883 to 24 Mar 1883 – 28 days
18 Nov 1881 to 18 Dec 1881 – 31 days
26 Nov 1876 to 17 Dec 1876 – 22 days
19 Nov 1875 to 14 Dec 1875 – 26 days
Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Yamba during or partly during summer (since 1877):
26 Dec 2018 to present – 23 days and counting
4 Jan 2018 to 27 Jan 2018 – 24 days
21 Dec 1954 to 11 Jan 1955 – 22 days
20 Jan 1952 to 11 Feb 1952 – 23 days
20 Dec 1932 to 11 Jan 1933 – 23 days
4 Feb 1926 to 26 Feb 1926 – 23 days
12 Jan 1912 to 8 Feb 1912 – 28 days
17 Jan 1900 to 8 Feb 1900 – 23 days
20 Jan 1892 to 15 Feb 1892 – 27 days
30 Jan 1886 to 24 Feb 1886 – 26 days
12 Nov 1883 to 5 Dec 1883 – 24 days
30 Dec 1879 to 23 Jan 1880 – 25 days
Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Casino during or partly during summer (since 1879):
24 Dec 2018 to present – 25 days and counting
4 Jan 2018 to 28 Jan 2018 – 25 days
19 Jan 1945 to 11 Feb 1945 – 24 days
1 Feb 1926 to 26 Feb 1926 – 26 days
15 Nov 1906 to 12 Dec 1906 – 28 days
22 Dec 1904 to 12 Jan 1905 – 22 days
19 Dec 1902 to 9 Jan 1903 – 22 days
Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Lismore during or partly during summer (since 1884):
25 Dec 2018 to present – 24 days and counting
18 Jan 1952 to 12 Feb 1952 – 26 days
11 Dec 1920 to 3 Jan 1921 – 24 days
19 Jan 1915 to 9 Feb 1915 – 22 days
3 Nov 1913 to 5 Dec 1913 – 33 days
5 Dec 1893 to 1 Jan 1894 – 28 days
..”
end quote
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CORRELATION RESEARCH COMMENCES jan 2019
As there was a 66 yr gap between the last dry spell ( 1952 – 2019) , l suggesteds to seabreeze the possibility of a link with the AMO which is linked closely to natural oscialltions in global temperature.
So l downloaded a time series graph of the AMO from appinsys.com
I overlayed the dryspell years from the Grafton NSW Australia BOM data that seabreeze had compiled above.
Of interest
5 of 7 Quasi intervals between 9 to 11 years … ( consider the schwabe cycle perhaps)
The other 2 intervals were of 5 and 25 years. The 5 year interval was the commencement of the 77 yr dry spell pattern and commencement of an AMO cycle
The 25 yr interval was at the end of the AMO cycle
There is a break of 66 years ( 1952 – 2018) between extended summer dry spells . This break coincides with another AMO cycle very closely but with what appears to be a post offset of about 10 years of the max AMO peak.
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My hunch is that….
The summer dry spells are linked to solar cycles( Schwabes) AND the AMO
But there needs to be another cycle in play that switches on or off that connection.
and so with all research.
The search continues.. in to the future
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Comments and suggestions are welcome below
PLEASE CLICK ON THE HEADING TO LOAD ALL POSTS
RAINFALL or lack of it .. TIME SERIES ..GRAPHED
I thought l would start collecting rainfall (or lack of it), time series data from around the world.
SOURCE
http://climatebysurly.com/2014/10/22/decadal-and-inter-decadal-changes-in-rainfall-iii/
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PLEASE CLICK ON THE TITLE TO LOAD ALL FURTHER ENTRIES AT THE BASE OF THIS PAGE
This example was produced by ‘SURLY BOND’
http://climatebysurly.com/2014/10/22/decadal-and-inter-decadal-changes-in-rainfall-iii/
–NOTICE THE SAW TOOTH WAVE FORM AND THE STEP SEQUENCE
-In this graph the inflection point cliff drop were in 1896 and then again at the climate shift at 1976.
The time between the 2 saw tooth drops = 1896 – 1976 = 80 yrs
Note ‘surly’s’ comments
“The oscillation between higher and lower values in nature is often modelled as a smooth harmonic curve.
That does not fit well here.
Not only does the rise from 1897 to 1976 fail to curve down approaching the final peak, the falls from 1892 to 1900 and from 1975 to 1987 are extremely sharp. They are collapses.”
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I WILL SLOWLY ADD TO THE COLLECTION IN THE COMMENTS BELOW
CLICK ON THE TITLE TO LOAD
The Millenial drought- Australia -1995-2009
“The drought began in 1995 and continued Australia wide until late 2009”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000s_Australian_drought
There is debate as to whether this is the worst drought since settlement
I will use this post to add information on the millennial drought.
(Follow up posts appear in the comments section below. Please click on the title to load comments if necessary)
WARWICK HUGHES is one who challenges that this was the worst drought
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=2741
He doesn’t mince his words
quote from his blog
“Here is a chart of Australian rain anomalies 1900-2013 – it is obvious that the much ballyhooed Millenium Drought was a pussy of a drought Australia wide compared to the obviously dry years from 1910 right up to 1970.”
source : BOM climate time series data
DROUGHT 2014
I will collect some articles on reported droughts on 2014
( image source:http://www.topnews.in/files/dry.jpg)
New updates will appear in the COMMENTS SECTION on the bottom of this page
If they don’t appear. CLICK ON THE TITLE of THIS POST and they will load. SCROLL TO BASE OF PAGE
FEBRUARY 2014..REPORTED DROUGHTS
SCROLL DOWN
CRIKEY !#&@ ...... IT'S THE WEATHER CYCLES 
