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Volcanoes and global cooling

Found this amazing essay published on National geographic

Colossal volcano behind ‘mystery’ global cooling finally found

The eruption devastated local Maya settlements and caused crop failures around the world

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/08/colossal-volcano-behind-mystery-global-cooling-found/?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=social::src=twitter::cmp=editorial::add=tw20190823science-colossalvolcanomystery::rid=&sf218005129=1


Some extracts

The ices of Greenland and Antarctica bear the fingerprints of a monster: a gigantic volcanic eruption in 539 or 540 A.D. that killed tens of thousands and helped trigger one of the worst periods of global cooling in the last 2,000 years. Now, after years of searching, a team of scientists has finally tracked down the source of the eruption.

The team’s work, published in Quaternary Science Reviews, lays out new evidence that ties the natural disaster to Ilopango, a now-dormant volcano in El Salvador. Researchers estimate that in its sixth-century eruption, Ilopango expelled the equivalent of 10.5 cubic miles of dense rock, making it one of the biggest volcanic events on Earth in the last 7,000 years. The blast was more than a hundred times bigger than the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption and several times larger than the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. It dealt the local Maya settlements a blow that forever altered their trajector……

el salvador

 

Ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica show spikes of sulfate, a byproduct of large volcanic eruptions, at 536 and either 539 or 540. The two volcanoes were so large and so violent, they launched sulfur gases and particles miles into the sky. Since this material reflected sunlight away from Earth’s surface, it triggered severe global cooling: One 2016 study found that the volcanoes decreased average global temperatures by as much as 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit……

……

geologists published new evidence that the historical “dust veil” of 536 was caused by a volcano. In the other, researchers announced that the Tierra Blanca Joven extended into marine sediments off the coast of El Salvador. The Tierra Blanca Joven eruption was even bigger than Dull and others thought.…….

………..

Dull’s team also revised their estimate of Ilopango’s size, taking into account the thickness and spread of Tierra Blanca Joven deposits. They say that Ilopango may have even dwarfed the 1815 Tambora eruption, a huge volcanic event that ushered in “a year without a summer” because of the global cooling it caused. Ilopango likely launched up to a million tons of sulfur miles into the sky, high enough for stratospheric winds to spread the aerosols worldwide and trigger global cooling.…..


The actual Research paper

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379119301465

Radiocarbon and geologic evidence reveal Ilopango volcano as source of the colossal ‘mystery’ eruption of 539/40 CE

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.07.037

 

 

 

 

 

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weatherforum.com.au

A brand new Australian weather forum has opened… August 2019

as a replacement for the now defunct weatherzone forum .Weatherzone forum closed in JULY 2019 .

Paul Atkins is the author and administrator.

I go on there myself with username ‘crikey’

I encourage you to join and help build this forum with regular posts

Check it out here.. Its free.. Just register and start posting

https://www.weatherforum.com.au/Forum/

(Don’t forget the .au or you will end up in an overseas address.There are quite a few forums with a similar address)

front door

 

Pauls’ ABOUT page says

” WeatherForum.com.au forum is created and hosted by the same people who created OceanViewWeather.com.au and came about due to the closing of the WeatherZone forum in mid 2019. (Although we were a couple of months late!!!)

I am an IT manager, who feels the need to get back on the tools and play with things, like this forum, just to keep the old brain cells engaged!

We are a non commercial site created by a weather enthusiast for Weather enthusiasts.

We aim to create a forum where people can express their own opinions, however we expect users to respect other users as people and avoid conflict and trolling. To help with this we utilise various spam filters and profanity filters. This should help make the WeatherForum a place for young and old to enjoy.

(We is myself and Gemma the cat, who walked on the keyboard whilst the forum was being created)”

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Satellite pictures and radar .. Links

I will start collecting some site links for quick reference

Here is a great Australian link.

https://theweatherchaser.com/

A feast of radar and satellite options layed out on a user friendly format so that you can see the best of Australian weather at a glance.

The author is looking to upgrade and expand.

I love also the highest and lowest temperatures in Australian states  displayed in a format that is a breeze to read.

__________________

https://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/

This site has lots of ‘goodies’.. check it out

The author has just opened a new Australian weather forum.

Please support them

https://www.weatherforum.com.au/Forum/

 

 

Please scroll down to comments section below to see more links to satellite and radar sites. Click on the heading if they don’t load.

 

 

 

 

 

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WIND

Anything about wind you may find here.

Firstly some outstanding visual animated pictures of wind flowing around our planet.

JAMSTEC..

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/virtualearth/general/en/index.html#SINTEX/SON2019/SINTEX_wind/SINTEX_slp/mean/all/orthographic=-207.70,-27.28,888

and the very famous NULLSCHOOL

https://earth.nullschool.net/

Use your mouse to zoom in and out and rotate the globe , just like in google maps

nullschool wind

 

scroll down to comments below for more

Click the heading if they don’t load

 

By weathercycles Posted in WIND

Rain trends vs -ENSO-IPO: Manilla NSW by surlybond

From 1999, rainfall at Manilla NSW matched ENSO only up to 2011, before the IPO became positive. This graphical log compares the rainfall at Manilla NSW with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) through the 21st century to date. Values shown are anomalies, smoothed. (See Notes below on “Data”, “Smoothing”, […]

via 21-C Rain-ENSO-IPO: Line graphs — climate by surly

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Latest Computer climate modeling producing more fear

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/New-Models-Point-More-Global-Warming-We-Expected?cm_ven=cat6-widget

 

New Models Point to More Global Warming Than We Expected

August 6, 2019, 12:09 PM EDT

Our planet’s climate may be more sensitive to increases in greenhouse gas than we realized, according to a new generation of global climate models being used for the next major assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The findings—which run counter to a 40-year consensus—are a troubling sign that future warming and related impacts could be even worse than expected.

One of the new models, the second version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), saw a 35% increase in its equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the rise in global temperature one might expect as the atmosphere adjusts to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Instead of the model’s previous ECS of 4°C (7.2°F), the CESM2 now shows an ECS of 5.3°C (9.5°F).

“It is imperative that the community work in a multi-model context to understand how plausible such a high ECS is,” said NCAR’s Andrew Gettelman and coauthors in a paper published last month in Geophysical Research Letters. They added: “What scares us is not that the CESM2 ECS is wrong…but that it might be right.”

At least eight of the global-scale models used by IPCC are showing upward trends in climate sensitivity, according to climate researcher Joëlle Gergis, an IPCC lead author and a scientific advisor to Australia’s Climate Council. Gergis wrote about the disconcerting trends in an August column for the Australian website The Monthly.

Researchers are now evaluating the models to see whether the higher ECS values are model artifacts or correctly depict a more dire prognosis.

“The model runs aren’t all available yet, but when many of the most advanced models in the world are independently reproducing the same disturbing results, it’s hard not to worry,” said Gergis.

A potential upending of a four-decade consensus

The IPCC issues comprehensive climate assessments every few years, along with interim reports on special topics in between. The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) will be written over the next several years and released in 2021-22, based on papers being published through the end of 2019.

Back in 1979, a landmark U.S. climate study informally called the Charney Report estimated that the planet’s equilibrium climate sensitivity was between 1.5°C and 4.5°C. Each of the IPCC’s five major assessments since 1990 has largely agreed with this conclusion, although a few individual models have gone outside the range.

The consensus range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from each of the IPCC's five assessment reports released since 2000, plus values from NCAR models
Figure 1. The consensus range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from each of the IPCC’s five assessment reports released since 2000. Model assessment is still under way for the sixth report, due in 2021-22. Also shown are ECS values for each of the models contributed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) since the third IPCC report in 2001, as well as the value for the NCAR Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), which is being used in the next IPCC assessment. Image credit: Values drawn from archived IPCC asssessments. Note: This image has been updated to add the CESM1 value and correct the CESM2 value.

It does indeed look like many of the latest models will have ECS values higher than the IPCC ‘likely range’ of 1.5-4.5°C,” said Peter Cox (University of Exeter) in an email. “It seems that the new models with high ECS have more low-level cloud that tends to burn off under climate change, producing an amplifying feedback on warming.”

Cox is lead author of a 2018 study in Nature that examined temperature variability around long-term warming. The study concluded that the odds of ECS going outside the long-accepted range of 1.5-4.5°C were very small. “It is worth noting that observational constraints from both the temperature trend and temperature variability still suggest ECS of around 3°C,” said Cox. “So climate science has a conundrum to solve here.”

Clouds in the picture

Cloud-related effects have long been one of the biggest question marks in projecting future climate change, apart from uncertainties in future greenhouse emissions that hinge on human behavior. Low clouds—especially marine stratocumulus, which cover huge swaths of tropical and subtropical ocean—are especially crucial, as they tend to cool the climate by reflecting large amounts of sunlight.

Instruments aboard NASA's CERES satellite analyze Earth’s total radiation budget
Figure 2. Instruments aboard NASA’s CERES satellite analyze Earth’s total radiation budget and provide cloud property estimates that enable scientists to assess clouds’ roles in radiative fluxes from the surface to the top of the atmosphere. Image credit: NASA.

The recent concerns about low-level clouds have been reinforced by ongoing work at NASA drawing on data from the CERES satellite program (Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System). Measuring the amount of energy entering and leaving the top of Earth’s atmosphere, CERES data shows that net energy in the atmosphere and oceans has climbed steadily with the increase of human-produced greenhouse gases—including both during and after the so-called “hiatus” in global temperature from about 2000 to 2013, when the oceans took up extra energy.

After 2013, the eastern Pacific saw a major drop in low cloud cover, global air temperatures spiked, and “there was a huge increase in sea surface temperatures,” said CERES principal investigator Norman Loeb, who outlined the changes in a 2018 paper.

Loeb is now analyzing how well the models for the upcoming IPCC report—with the higher sensitivities in place—can reproduce cloud cover and air temperature during and after the hiatus, given sea surface temperature. He discussed initial results last month at the 27th IUGG General Assembly (International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics), held in Montreal.

According to Loeb, “some of the models do really darn well” in depicting the cloud changes of the past two decades. He cautions: “I don’t know how far you can extrapolate this. There’s a danger in saying ‘you take the current record and the models nail it, therefore they have the climate sensitivity right.’ I’m cautious about making that leap, but it’s intriguing that they are nailing that post-hiatus difference.”

Changes in SST and top-of-atmosphere radiation reflected from low clouds during vs. after hiatus
Figure 3. Differences in sea surface temperatures (left) and in CERES/MODIS-observed energy reflected from low clouds at the top of the atmosphere (right) between the so-called “hiatus” period of dampened surface air temperature increase (defined here as July 2000 – June 2014) and the subsequent period of amplified air temperature increase (July 2014 – June 2017). The post-hiatus period saw a dramatic increase in surface temperature across much of the eastern Pacific, together with a marked decrease in low-level cloud cover. Image credit: Courtesy Norman Loeb.

A 2019 study in Nature Geoscience that used a fine-scale cloud dynamic model found that marine stratocumulus could be depleted in large amounts if carbon dioxide levels were to reach about four times their current values, possibly triggering up to 8°C in additional global warming. See the post from last May by Dr. Jeff Masters on this paper.

Clouds and pollutants

The new NCAR model is based on tests of nearly 300 model configurations, with a focus on how well the models simulated pre-industrial climate and how well they reproduced the main global temperature trends of the last century. These trends include warming from 1920 to 1940, a period of roughly steady global temperature with regional cooling in the mid-20th century, and a more sustained global warming since the late 20th century.

The model also took into account new estimates of aerosol emissions (soot and other particles and droplets). These estimates were designed to be employed by all of the latest IPCC model configurations. Aerosol pollution tends to cool the climate overall, both by blocking sunlight directly and by serving as nuclei for clouds that block sunlight more effectively.

The new data on aerosol emissions led to a stronger cooling effect in the NCAR model than previous versions. However, the stronger aerosol-related cooling also led to an unrealistic portrayal of 20th century climate. When the model was reconfigured in response, it produced a more accurate reproduction of 20th- and 21st-century climate, including cloud behavior—but with a higher ECS, which pointed to a more ominous portrayal of future change.

If the higher ECS in the new models turns out to be on the right track, “it’s really bad news,” said Gettelman. “It means we are going to be on the warm end of projections, with larger impacts for any given emissions trajectory.”

A durable index

The ECS allows for apples-to-apples comparison between the bare-bones climate models of decades ago and the far more sophisticated versions now in place. The ECS calculations begin with an instant doubling of carbon dioxide, whereas in our actual atmosphere, carbon dioxide is increasing gradually rather than all at once. The warming produced by the end of a more gradual doubling of CO2 rise is called transient climate sensitivity (TCS). “While TCS may be a better metric for comparison to observations and estimating near-term climate response…ECS has a long history as a convenient metric of future climate change,” said the authors in their GRL paper.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by about 45% during the rapid industrialization of the last 150 years. Since regular measurements began atop Mauna Loa, Hawaii, CO2 concentrations have increased from about 315 parts per million in 1957 to around 410 ppm today. Fossil fuel burning and other human activities generate more than 35 billion tons of airborne CO2 a year, about half of which stays in the atmosphere for more than a century.

Although other human-produced greenhouse gases warm the planet—methane molecules, in particular, are very powerful warming agents—CO2 is expected to account for most of the human-produced warming over the next few decades and beyond, as it remains in the atmosphere much longer than methane and is much more prevalent.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

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Climate shifts…natural variation

I have started this blog post because today l have found out all major search engines are re routing the search string ‘climate shift’.

If you enter this term into any search engine, it will respond with pages and pages of ‘climate change’

We are being prevented from viewing alternative theories to man made climate change theories or facts, folks.

I will make an attempt to collect some links to climate regime shift sites that focus on natural variability.

I have tried alternatives to google and they ALL redirect the term ‘climate shift’

…You can get around this by..

Using google scholar…

which will accept the string ‘climate shift’ and lead you to alternative research on the reasons for global temperature trends other than AGW

or

on on the main google search engine page use talking marks on the search string which over rides the ban on the term… climate shift

“climate shift”

 

 

 

 

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1998 Climate Shift

I was looking at some time series data in particular SH ozone and the AAO(SAM)

I noticed a clear and abrupt change around 1998 and onwards.

OZONE TIME SERIES

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Extratropics/figs5.shtml

ozone time zeries

AAO Time series

AAO time series1945 to 2011

1998 AAO climate shict

 

I thought l might check Google to see if researchers had documented a climate shift and the answer was yes.

There have been major climate shifts noted in 1925,1945,1975,1998

…………….

The Shifts Hypothesis – an alternative view of global climate change

source

The Shifts Hypothesis – an alternative view of global climate change

Guest post by Pavel Belolipetsky

( BTW..when  was searching for information on google for ‘climate shift’, l noted l got next to NOTHING..,It appears google have removed the term and given full priority to the term ‘climate change’.

I think l might change my search engine)

……..

 

 

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Townsville and Brisbane. Past Rainfall correlated with sunspot number

This research was conducted by ‘RetiredWeatherMan ‘ a retired BOM meteorologist.

‘RWM’ is an active member of Australian weather forums

http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=94&p=111657#p111657

…….

by retiredweatherman » Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:11 pm

The Queensland coastline from Bowen to Townsville has a more west-northwest orientation than the rest,
and even westerly in the Townsville region. The prevailing east-southeast trade winds therefore blow
more parallel to the coastline over this section producing lower rainfalls – the area being known as the
Dry Tropics. A range of hills from Cape Cleveland, northeast of Townsville runs to the south of
Townsville near Majors Creek, further protecting the Townsville region from the Trades. Therefore this
area is ideal to study for monsoonal influenced summer rains, with the monsoon flow being predominately
from the northeast to north. This region is also affected by PDO,ESNO,IOD and at the southern end of
MJO influences. And all these factors whether singly or in tandem can help to influence the rainfall
totals. As well as the coastline orientation, the lack of nearby coastal ranges largely negates rainfall
being boosted by the Trade Flow. My studies have shown these summer rainfalls may also be partly
influenced by the Solar Cycle in some instances, again whether singly or in tandem with other influences
as mentioned earlier. The attached graph shows the monsoonal summer rains, generally maximized between
November and April expressed as a percentage of the average of this 6 month period against the Solar Cycle
each year in January, back to reliable record gathering in 1872. For comparison is a similar graph for Brisbane
summer rain ( Dec to Mar ). Brisbane summer rainfall is more influenced by southern patterns then Townsville
therefore the similarities are not as well defined. One interesting parallel with the two sites is the very
long time it took to cast off the influence of the Federation Drought ( Brisbane more so than Townsville )
with the summer rainfall peaks moving generally upward roughly in line with the upwards movement of the
solar peaks from the Federation Drought period up to about 1960. The 2 graphs follow…..’

 

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GLOBAL EXTREME COLD EVENTS

2019