The synoptic pattern above ……stalled over Australia from about NOV 2018 , all through DEC 2018 and is still current at time of writing. ( Jan 11th 2019)
Persistent ridging on the eastern quadrant of Australia.
Contracted westerly belt .. Which is not unusual for summer
A big dip in tropical isobars right down to 35 s
Cyclone Penny ( Jan 2019) could not transition south due to ridging in the Tasman blocking
The stalled pattern caused heatwaves as hot air from the interior was directed southward
Very hot temperatures in the interior as no cold fronts or cooler air from the south advected.
Storm lines persisted in the same place as the interior troughing axis remained quasi stationary.
Sydney were included in many places with severe storms almost daily.
Noting the AAO/SAM had been positive since the first week of November 2018 and was still positive at time of writing 11th jan 2019. That is approximately 63 days so far
The monsoon trough has not been over the top end of Australia until recently
Thanks to BOM and ACCESS model
Well summed up Crikey. Maybe it will take an enhanced heat low over central Aus to set up a classic Easterly Dip for Aus Eastern/SE’n regions to finally receive moisture from the Coral Sea? …..else we have to wait for the Indian to warm slightly more near Broome for a NW cloudband.
Hottest EQ waters on earth in GOC, ….something will soon break this stalled “non-coupled” climate around Aus!
Hey Petros.. Thanks for dropping by. great to read your views.. The watch and observe continues .
Weatherzone 19th jan 2019
copy of report of some of the many heat records broken with this stalled synoptic pattern
@weatherzone #Canberra just registered a record-breaking 4th consecutive day at or above 40C. Here are some of the records that have been broken in Australia during this week’s heatwave.
The stalled pattern continues . The BOM are expecting warmest January on record.
Today is the 22nd Jan 2019 and the forecast is for a broad swath of 40 deg c plus for the nextt 5 days.
Here is a link to the news report
Thanks to Ken Kato of weatherzone for posting this rain anomaly map for Australia in January 2019
an extract from the BOM re: the late monsoon
from the same forum post
“speaking of the monsoon, this bit in the latest Weekly Tropical Climate Note is noteworthy: ” Monsoon onset at Darwin typically occurs at the end of December and the latest onset date on record is 25 January 1973. Hence, if monsoon onset does not occur later this week, then this will be the latest start to the monsoon in Darwin since records commenced in the 1957-58 wet season. “)
Adelaide has set a new heat record, smashing the previous one reached in 1939, hitting 46.2 degrees Celsius this afternoon.
source of extracts
Heat records began to tumble throughout South Australia earlier today.
So far, 16 locations have hit record temperatures including Adelaide Airport, Minlaton, Noarlunga, Snowtown and Port Lincoln.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is tipping more records will be surpassed this afternoon with Port Pirie hitting 40C and Adelaide reaching 35.8C by 9:00am.
The BOM has updated its forecast and predicts Port Augusta will reach 49C and Port Pirie 47C.
The Yorke Peninsula town of Minlaton was the first town to beat its previous record of 45.6C.
A temperature of 45.7C was measured by the BOM at 11:14am.
Adelaide’s previous maximum temperature of 46.1C was set in 1939, just above the original 45C Thursday forecast.
FROM Weatherzone forum posted by TECKERT
day of extremes across SA as a staggering 36 Weather records broken, some just by 0.1 to a whopping 5.0C
City: Prev Record & Date New Record
West Terrace 46.1 Jan 16 1939 46.6
Kent Town 45.7 Jan 28 2009 47.7
Adel Airport 44.1 Jan 4 2013 45.8
Edinburgh 46.2 Jan 23 1982 47.5
Hind Island 45.1 Jan 28 2009 46.8
Kuitpo 42.6 Jan 28 2009 44.0
Mt Crawford 43.3 Jan 28 2009 43.7
Mount Lofty 37.9 Jan 28 2018 41.1
Noarlunga 44.6 Jan 28 2009 46.2
Nuriootpa 44.1 Jan 28 2009 46.0
Parafield 46.4 Jan 25 2003 47.7
Parawa West 42.5 Jan 28 2009 43.5
Roseworthy 46.7 Jan 28 2009 48.3
Strathalbyn 46.3 Jan 28 2009 46.7
**Yorke Peninsula and Kangaroo Island
Edithburgh 44.9 Jan 29 2009 47.9
Kadina 47.0 Jan 28 2009 47.9
Kingscote 43.8 Jan 29 2009 45.4
Minlaton 45.6 Jan 28 2009 46.8
Parndarna 42.6 Jan 14 2014 45.3
Sten Bay 44.0 Jan 16 2014 46.7
**Upper and Lower SE (Stil going)
Cape Jaffa 41.6 Jan 14 1996 41.8
Robe AP 39.9 Jan 28 2009 40.0
Clare 43.7 Jan 28 2009 44.9
Port Augusta 48.9 Jan 15 2019 49.5
Port Pirie 46.3 Jan 4 1979 48.6
Snowtown 46.0 Jan 25 2003 47.3
*West Coast, LEP, EEP, NE & NW Pastoral
Ceduna 48.4 Jan 23 2019 48.6
Cleve AP 46.1 Jan 4 2013 47.0
Cultana 45.9 Jan 19 2018 48.2
Cummins AP 45.6 Jan 16 2014 46.5
Minnipa RS 47.2 Jan 13 2001 48.0
Port Lincoln 46.1 Jan 21 2006 48.4
Whyalla 47.2 Jan 4 2013 48.5
Leigh Creek 46.3 Jan 6 2013 46.9
Tarcoola 49.0 Jan 15 2019 49.1
Yunta 45.0 Jan 14 2014 45.5
Brisbane’s summer rain missing in action, and there isn’t any on the horizon either
Kate Doyle, Saturday January 26, 2019 – 08:43 EDT
” lot of places around the south-east are on track for their driest Januarys on record.”
According to Mr Crock, we have had a stable, static weather pattern for a while, with a big ridge of high pressure sitting over eastern Australia. …”
“What that does is prevent any real significant rain events from developing, or any widespread storms from coming through from inland like we saw a bit of in December,” he said.
LIKELY or close to .. RECORD LOW RAINFALL for many coastal towns NTH NSW COAST
POSTED ON 26th JAN 2019
Thanks to ‘seabreeze’ for all his hard work here
“There is a chance of places recording their lowest January rainfall on record along the NSW north coast. Little to very little rain is forecast over these final days of January.
Port Macquarie (1841-1852, 1871-present) (Port Macquarie Airport + Port Macquarie Hill St)
Month to date: 8.4mm (Currently it would rank as the 2nd driest on record, behind 1882)
Record Low for Jan: 5.7mm (1882)
Kempsey (1882-present) (Kempsey Airport + Kempsey Wide St)
Month to date: 15.0mm (Currently it would rank as the 4th driest on record, behind 1888, 1908 & 1900)
Record Low for Jan: 7.6mm (1900)
Smoky Cape (1939-present) (Smoky Cape Lighthouse)
Month to date: 8.2mm (Currently it would rank as the driest on record)
Record Low for Jan: 15.0mm (1942)
Coffs Harbour (1900-present) (Coffs Harbour Airport + Coffs Harbour Meteorological Office + Coffs Harbour)
Month to date: 0.8mm (Currently it would rank as the driest on record)
Record Low for Jan: 11.8mm (1994)
Grafton (1867, 1872-present) (Grafton Research Station + Grafton Olympic Pool + Grafton City Council)
Month to date: 7.0mm (Currently it would rank as the driest on record)
Record Low for Jan: 8.6mm (1966)
Yamba (1878-present) (Yamba Pilot Station)
Month to date: 2.0mm (Currently it would rank as the driest on record)
Record Low for Jan: 13.1mm (1966)
Casino (1858-1862, 1879-present) (Casino Airport AWS + Casino Airport)
Month to date: 1.0mm (Currently it would rank as the driest on record)
Record Low for Jan: 4.9mm (1884)
Lismore (1884-present) (Lismore Airport + Lismore Centre St)
Month to date: 3.2mm (Currently it would rank as the driest on record)
Record Low for Jan: 12.0mm (2003)
Ballina (1893-present) (Ballina Airport + Ballina Crowley Village)
Month to date: 2.4mm (Currently it would rank as the driest on record)
Record Low for Jan: 16.0mm (1932)
Byron Bay (1893-present) (Cape Byron AWS + Cape Byron Lighthouse + Byron Bay Jacaranda Dr)
Month to date: 1.8mm (Currently it would rank as the driest on record)
Record Low for Jan: 18.0mm (1897)”
More records for lowest rainfall in January likely to be broken.
Here is a post from MEGA on weatherzone
“Tewantin is on 6mm. 7mm is the record.
Maroochydore is on 0.4mm. 12mm is the record
Beerburrum is on 5.8mm. 13.4mm is the record
Redcliffe should beat theirs easily – they’re on 16.2mm and their driest is 47mm
Brisbane Airport is on 2mm. 9.4mm is the record
Gold Coast Seaway is on 2.6mm. 5.2mm is the record
Coolangatta is on 3.8mm. 11.4mm is the record
” end quote
on jan 6th 2-19
EC – no sign of ridge breaking up to the 16th.
GFS – no sign of ridge breaking until past the 22nd.
Are we gonna break some records here? ”
27th Jan 2019
Just looking at the fabulous sat pic tonight. Lots of cloud from active monsoon and that shear from the NW that’s been ‘waterfalling’ for many days looks particularly impressive tonight. The usual storms around NSW mid c oast and hinterland regions. And l am left contemplating how we have managed to escape all that wet cloudy stuff in that small coastal corridor of Nth NSW and sth east qld. Quite amazing really.
Tasweatherman @ twitter
Hobart could potentially record 3 consecutive days over 30, this has occurred 15 times, interestingly 7 of them occurred before 1900 and only twice since 1970/71. The last occurence was in Feb 2007.
stalled pattern finally breaking . Troughing breaking on the east coast on the 9th Feb.
Noting the AAO is peaking at +2.0
THe AAO has been very positive since the 6th Nov 2018 , which is about how long this stalled pattern and east coast ridging has persisted
BOM report on
SCS 68 Widespread heatwaves during December 2018 and January 2019
Click to access scs68.pdf
EXTRACT..summary of contents
• An unusual extended period of heatwaves over much of Australia began in early December 2018 and continued into January 2019.
• For nationally averaged mean maximum temperature, Australia had its hottest December day on record and third-hottest for any month. This was followed by an unprecedented sequence of five consecutive days with nationally averaged mean maxima above 40 °C from 12 to 16 January, including the 15th, which recorded the second-warmest day on record for any month.
• Numerous locations reported their highest daily maximum temperature on record for December or January, with some locations exceeding their previous records by large margins. Many records were also set for consecutive days above thresholds, including Canberra recording four consecutive days above 40 °C for the first time.
• A new record was set for the highest minimum temperature ever observed in Australia.
• It was Australia’s warmest December on record.
• Every State and Territory was affected by heatwave conditions at some stage during the event.
• These widespread heatwaves during December and January followed an extreme heatwave that affected the tropical Queensland coast during late November 2018.
• The current heat event is continuing and this Special Climate Statement will be updated at the end of January.
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The Tasman sea had extreme heat anomalies as this stalled high pressure cell remained stationary ffrom approx. Nov 2018 to mid Feb 2019
During this stalled synoptic event and extended heat and dry over most of Australia
I have found that there was a strong cold anomaly in the stratosphere during that time at 30hPa
Lets just add. The SOI took a massive! drop from pos’ to neg’ during this event