AAO correlated with southern hemisphere synoptic 2019

Here l take snaps of the ACCESS g model southern hemisphere synoptic and also record the AAO/SAM parameter.

Looking for synoptic patterns and if they correlate with shifts in the AAO. I will make a few observation notes as warranted.

AAO link.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index.html

ACC g  southern hemisphere synoptic

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=AEDT&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

The first entry is below and then scroll down to comments section for all further additions. Click on the heading to load if necessary

image below 8th may 2019  AAO  going strong positive  Here +0.7 and going up

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East coast lows (ECL) Australia

In progress.    Current and historical.

6th May 2019.0

Acc g forecasting the development of an ECL off the mid NSW coast on 6th May 2019

A meandering sub tropical jet 200hpa m spawns a surface low within a surface trough off the coast. The AAO/SAM has dropped 1.5 point in the past week and the jets develop tighter bends. The low forms within the peak of the sub tropical jet trough. Here is the forecast

source

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=gradient&tz=AEDT&area=GAuR&model=CSCG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

AAO link

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao.shtml

 

A study of cold fronts in Australia

I will collect information and observations

2019

Forecast for 532 thickness for Tasmania 6 days into Autumn. which can bring low level snow

ABOVE

Nothing like a wavy sub polar jet associated with a negative dip in the AAO/ SAM since —early February 2019, to produce dynamic wavy jetstreams at the 200hpa stratosphere.

and satellite picture BELOW ……………………….

is the cold pool in the Bight 5th March 2019. The day before it travails over Tasmania.

The cold pool sits within the bulge of the sub polar jet but at the surface layer

The cold air is transported north into NSW  by the southern  and eastern flank of the

Mid -latitude High

SOURCE. BOM

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-thick&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

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Temperatures got down to 9.8 deg in Hobart and light splatter of snow on Mount Wellington

Mount Baw baw in Gippsland Victoria also had a light dusting of snow with temps down to 0 deg c for most of the day

NEWS article

Mount Mawson 6th March 2019

quote from Ben ” 6th March 2019

Today’s taste of wintry weather comes less than a week after the state endured a day of record-breaking March heat.

Dover’s 40.1 degrees on Sunday was the first time on record any location in Tasmania has exceeded 40 degrees during March.

Eight other weather stations, including Hobart (39.1C), also beat Tasmania’s previous March maximum temperature record of 38.0 degrees on Sunday.

Impressively, Hobart’s 39.1 degrees on Sunday was also hotter than any day in the city during summer. Last season’s highest temperature was 37.9 degrees.

Sunday’s heat now seems like a distant memory, as much colder southwesterly winds flow over the state today.

Hobart was only sitting on 13 degrees at 10am, although wind chill was making it feel more like eight degrees.”

Australian weekly weather forecast 2019.

For all states

GO to comments section below for my latest regular updates regarding upcoming weather events.

Click the heading to load if necessary

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After the stalled synoptic pattern of Jan 2019.

https://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2019/01/11/a-stalled-synoptic-pattern-australian-summer-2018_2019/

I thought l would continue posting . The east coast ridging has finally budged since NOV 2018 ( today is  7th feb 2019)The synoptic below shows the first troughing we have had since then. THE AAO was highly positive during this summer period

Fi

Finally a change in synoptic pattern after 2 months

This pattern is different and probably transitional

FEwesterly belt replaces the high in the Bight. Signs the westerly belt is becoming more zonal ( wavy). The lack of MSLP gradient is evident on the mainland

A Stalled synoptic pattern ..Australian summer 2018_2019

The synoptic pattern above ……stalled over Australia from about NOV 2018 , all through DEC 2018 and is still current at time of writing. ( Jan 11th 2019)

Persistent ridging on the eastern quadrant of Australia.

Contracted westerly belt .. Which is not unusual for summer

A big dip in tropical isobars right down to 35 s

Cyclone  Penny ( Jan 2019) could not transition south due to ridging in the Tasman blocking

The stalled pattern caused heatwaves as hot air from the interior was directed southward

Very hot temperatures in the interior as no cold fronts or cooler air from the south advected.

Storm lines persisted in the same place as the interior troughing axis remained quasi stationary.

Sydney  were included in many places with severe storms almost daily.

Noting the AAO/SAM had been positive since the first week of November 2018 and was still positive at time of writing 11th jan 2019. That is approximately 63 days so far

The monsoon trough has not been over the top end of Australia until recently

Thanks to BOM and ACCESS model

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml

Can ACCESS gradient 1km wind interface predict Cyclone intensity?

Here is some snaps of ACCESS R gradient winds ( 1km) during the FEB 2015 event of dual cyclones LAM and MARCIA in the BOM jurisdiction in Australia

I snapped the windstreams at each stage of the cyclones and categorised them by the publicised central pressure of BOM cyclone tech details or USnavy

As you can see there are some limitations to accurately assessing the intensity of cyclones by this method

The source of the pictures from this link
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=gradient&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

Rain event for SA and VIC.. 8th to 11th April 2014

ACCESS is suggesting a moisture laden North west cloud band will pass through the Australian interior from the Kimberly /Pilbara through to South Australia
Rain should begin to arrive in SA on Tuesday the 8th and continues to the 10th April. A 3 day event for SA
Rain commences in the west about the 9th of April and intensifies into the 10th and perhaps the 11th April
for Victoria
LoOks to be a 2 to 3 day rain event for both SA AND VIC. looking WET ON ACCESS MODELING
a REALLY NICE LOOKING TROPICAL DIP if this comes off

source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
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Been entertaining guests for a few days and took a break.. Thanks for dropping back in!
regards

Rain for East quadrant of Australia 21st- 30th March 2014

CLICK THE TITLE TO LOAD FURTHER UPDATES AND COMMENTS

A surface trough stalls across the Eastern quadrant of Australia
and
another trough in WA seems to linger as well WATL not showing as much rain with that

and remnants of EX Hadi bring rain to the Far nth of Australia

Here is the WATL 7 day forecast ( thanks to KEN for posting that on WZ)
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1250331/Re_SE_Qld_NE_NSW_day_to_day_we#Post1250331

source
BOM WATL RAIN FORECAST
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The surface synoptic showing the stalled trough line

source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

Rain for Queensland ..NT …. WA …13th and 14th of December and TROUGH STALLING 2013

ACCESS G indicating continued abundance of low pressure troughing
Around the the 13th / 14th EXTENDING INTO the 15th, 16th, 17th , 18th December 2013

The long troughing forming down the West and east quadrants of the mainland and across the top Northern quadrant

The picture below pretty much explains this surface pattern

The position of the high pressure belt centres noted on the synoptic above with an orange line

Rain for many parts of WA.. 5th Dec to 10th Dec 2013

5 days of rain within WA forecast……. by ACCESS G this coming week.
May be heavy in some parts

source link
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml

The mid-latitude high pressure belt is continuing be centred well south allowing low pressure to predominate across much of Australia
Between the 5th and 10th Dec ACCESS G suggesting a low pressure tropical dip dip southward encompasses much of WA during this period giving rain to many parts of WA . The inland central and N/west parts of WA particular

Heavy convection has settled on the ITCZ in the Nth Indian ocean and inflows from this area is bound to boost moisture levels
Two tropical lows in the nth Indian ocean have been identified by BOM cyclone watch