Hot Days in Manilla NSW Australia and ENSO

‘SURLY BOND’ FROM MANILLA IN NSW AUSTRALIA HAS NOTED SOME INTERESTING TEMPERATURE CYCLES and their C0RREIati0n WITH ENS0
http://climatebysurly.com/2015/07/08/el-nino-and-my-climate/

https://climatebysurly.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/ensomanillatmax.gif

http://climatebysurly.com/2015/07/18/hot-days-and-enso/

“The reality of this temperature curve is supported by its close similarity to the recognised curve of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as read from NINO3.4 Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies.”

More frequent hot days do not come in a three year cycle, but in a 1.5 year cycle related to ENSO.

https://climatebysurly.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/hotdlogwithtmax.gif
“This curve swings up and down rather regularly, with five peaks and five dips in the fifteen years. That is, more frequent hot days seem to come in a three-year cycle.”
“There are about 10 peaks and 10 dips in the 15.5 year curve. They define a cycle of about 1.5 years wavelength. ” . .
———————————————————————–
http://climatebysurly.com/2015/07/18/hot-days-and-enso/
http://climatebysurly.com/2015/07/08/el-nino-and-my-climate/

climate by surly

Graphical log of max temps and hot days

More frequent hot days do not come in a three year cycle, but in a 1.5 year cycle related to ENSO.

The Hot Day data set

The graph of number of hot days per year

Log of annual hot days in 16 yearsThe graph on the left is one I posted earlier. The height of each data point represents the number of hot days in a year, plotted near January. The pattern of points led me to join them by a smooth curve. This curve swings up and down rather regularly, with five peaks and five dips in the fifteen years. That is, more frequent hot days seem to come in a three-year cycle.
Is this cycle “real”? Should we look for a cause? Will the cycle continue?
Probably not! The points of measurement are one year apart. Cycles that are only three years long may be “aliases” of different and shorter undetectable cycles. (See Note below on Nyquist frequency.)

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3 comments on “Hot Days in Manilla NSW Australia and ENSO

  1. Thanks, Crikey. it is good of you to re-blog these.
    Not many people realise that the cycle of the El Nino – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a period of about one-and-a-half years. It is not very regular in period or in amplitude. However, I find that both temperature anomalies and rainfall anomalies at my site swing up and down in step with ENSO anomalies for much of the time.
    Then I find that the relative frequency of hot days in spring and summer months also fits in with these cycles. It is interesting that hot days, when assessed simply by the total number in each year, appeared to me to have a three-year cycle. That turned out to be an alias for an actual one-and-a-half year cycle.
    These one-and-a-half year to two year cycles dominate climate swings in Australia. I call them the “Dorothea Cycle”, after Dorothea Mackellar’s line about “droughts and flooding rains”.
    They are, of course, much shorter than the decadal or inter-decadal cycles that make the record of global temperature into a dog-leg.

  2. I also remember you have identified a longer cycle in the ENSO as well and its link to your Manilla rainfall. Quasi 60 yr cycle which is well known ( ~ 30 yr phase)
    Has the El Nino dominat phase ended yet? or

    1975 + ~ 60 yr phase = 2035?
    Have identified any inflection points since 1975?

    2005 – 1975 =30 yr phase perhaps

    Please feel free to link to your site on this thread for any past and future work you may do

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