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Autumn / Winter 2015 ….Australia

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I document some aspects of current Australian weather for the archives.
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Here is my first entry.

4th March 2015..

Tropical low on the monsoon trough on the WA coast..

Tomorrow the 532 thickness line will scrape the southern coast of Tasmania. A nice announcement that Autumn has arrived and winter is coming. You can see that nice cold pool arriving on the satellite picture from weatherzone forum above
and HERE IS THE RESULT

5th MARCH..Overnight snowfall brings teeth-rattling taste of winter to Hobart

“HOBARTIANS could be excused for thinking winter had come early today, waking up to a snow-capped Mt Wellington.

At 8am, the temperature at the summit was a chilly minus 1.8 degrees, with the apparent temperature a teeth-rattling minus 13.2.”

http://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/overnight-snowfall-brings-teeth-rattling-taste-of-winter-to-hobart/story-fnj4f7k1-1227249013557

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89 comments on “Autumn / Winter 2015 ….Australia

  1. 13th May 2015

    Reports of snow down to 500m on mt wellington
    Snow fell on the top of Grampians in VIC , Hail fell in the suburbs
    Heathmont station Melbourne

    thanks https://twitter.com/RossAndJohn
    Also read about snow at
    Talbingo
    Mt Dandenongs
    Lake Mountain
    Mt Baw Baw , Hotham and other snow resorts
    Reports of snow from Goulbourn southern high lands
    and from weatherzone forum
    ‘waverider’ said
    “Just got a call from my pop saying that they got an inch of snow at their farm which is between Joadja and Berrima in the

    Southern highlands at 730m ASL.

    He said he thought it was hail at first but said it was definitely snow.”
    Forum discussion
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1329054#Post1329054
    ——
    I have started a new post on low level snow events in VICTORIA here https://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2015/05/13/low-level-snow-victoria-in-australia/


    SKI FORUM DISCUSSION
    ‘teckel’ said
    “Wow! Didn’t need to check LM cams. I should have just stuck my head out the door. I’m at 330m. Snow on the trees on all the hills around me – my guesstimate would be snow at 400, asl. Wouldn’t be surprised if there’s snow in Marysville (400m).”
    http://forums.ski.com.au/xf/threads/may-5th-13th-first-taste-of-winter.70629/page-4
    ‘rugbyskier’ said
    “I’m currently working in Tuggeranong and driving into the valley from the Monaro Hwy gives a good view of the mountains. This morning there is no visible snow on the front (Tidbinbilla) range but it was clearly snowing on the main range of the Brindabellas.”

  2. ACCESS has a very interesting system approaching s/west WA including Perth 15th -17th May
    A bulge in the westerly belt spawms a closed low which is enhanced by a n/west infeed from the Indian ocean as a dynamic mix of the westerly belt and the sub tropics
    The front approaching the west coast on 15th may saturday morning looks spectacular!
    A closed low intensifies . So a severe weather event for 48 hrs

  3. 15th May 2015

    1040 hpa in the Bight today
    and the record for mslp on the mainland is 1040hpa. Nearing that today with 1039.4 at pallamana in SA at 10am

    Noting NOTHING under 1034 hpa in VIC and SA !!

    ——————–
    FORECAST for the 21st May
    The High pressure belt dropping south this week and zonal patial pattern ( down to 37s) allowing some more tropical dips in the isobars
    One in the Indian ocean off the coast of WA and another in west QLD and west NSW commencing about 21st May 2015
    Could bring some nice rain for farmers inland NSWand QLD Also the possibility of the coast as broad troughing moves east toward the coast perhaps
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml

  4. FORECAST for an ECL on mid coast NSW by ACCESS for ~ 21st MAY 2015

    Currently the more intense southern flank formid coast, sydney and surrounds and south of

    and before on the 19th a pre frontal rain band for inland NSW

  5. Some decent cold anomalies on the

    15th May 2015

    both min and max temp
    I would imagine the big deep highs have something to do with that
    Any records in that ( mid coast inland QLD and anomlay of -12 deg c for minimum ..in spots)

  6. RAIN week ending 16th May 2015

    A strong westerly belt across the south east corner especially Tasmania brought low level snow and rain . A strong sub polar low south of tasmani coupled with a large high 1040 hpa high centred in the Tasman drove some pounding winds on to west Tasmania and parts of VIC and SA

  7. A few of the Highest gusts so far today around mid coastal NSW ( 22nd May 2015) from emerging off shore ECL ( S-SW)
    Sydney airport 87km/hr
    Norah head 96km/hr
    Newcastle Nobbys 89km/hr
    Watta molla 115km/hr
    Bellambi 91km/hr
    Uladaulla 76km/hr

  8. ACCESS indicating broad long wave troughing over the west coast of WA from 22nd May to 26th May ( stalling for 4 days). A North west infeed arriving in the NW of WA
    and a cold front merging into the troughing parade

    On shore moisture for Northern coastal QLD

  9. 4th JUNE
    it’s the coldest start to winter since 1931.
    —————–

    ACCESS has potential a low level snow event for about 9th and 10th of June with the 532 thickness line entering Tasmania, Eastern Vic and the High country in NSW

    Tasmania gets thumped with the N Quadrant of a deep 963 sub polar low . Some very strong westerly winds likely Sunday 7th and 8th of June.

  10. 8th June 2015. Severe winds for much of Tasmania

    Thanks to ‘yEP’ and ‘Ken Kato’ from weatherzone forum for this post concerning the intensity of the westerly belt traversing over Tasmania today
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1331206/Re_What_s_happening_in_Tassie#Post1331206

    yep said
    “Maatsuyker island notched up a 185km/hr wind gust at 430pm, breaking its record which stood at 174kmhr. It is not far either off the Tasmanian record which is 200km/hr on the top of Mt.Wellington. I think that was in March 1998.”

    Ken said

    “That 185km/hr gust today breaks both its June and annual all-time record. And yes, the Mt Wellington record was set in 1998. Scotts Peak still in 2nd place so far today with a gust of 158km/hr.”

  11. The 532and below thickness line encases Tasmania from 10pm 8th June to 10pm 9th june 2015. However the low surface moisture potential may limit snow fall
    1-5mm for some perhaps?

  12. Just back from 2 days at mount beauty . Frosts at night and 15 deg max for the past 3 days. 4/15 lifts operating at Falls creek. Didn’t bother to go up with deteriorating conditions
    ACCESS suggesting this week will be a big melt week with the 544 thickness line well down south ( south tasmania ) until thursday when a weakand quick moving cold front passes
    Might be a few flecks but
    A Tropical dip ! in isobars bringing moist coral sea air down the easter quadrant of OZ’. A wet summer set up really this week.
    Alps could get a dump of rain to wash what’s left away.
    Not good for ski operators this week anyway
    THe Kiewa river was flowing fast with the snow melt
    ACCESS has an ECL forming off the south coast of NSW but unfortunately the cold pool isn’t available. So heaps of rain more likely one would imagine
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
    ————-
    This depressing article on WZ news..thanks to ‘knot’ from WZforum for posting
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1331605#Post1331605
    Australia’s alpine region has
    been experiencing near-
    record June temperatures
    over the last two days.
    Across the ski slopes,
    daytime temperatures have
    been soaring about 5-10
    degrees above the June
    average.
    Yesterday, Thredbo Top
    Station reached 11.5
    degrees, its warmest June
    day since 1979, while Mount
    Baw Baw and Mount Hotham
    reached 11.2 and 14.3
    degrees respectively, their
    warmest June day in a
    decade.
    Today will see temperatures
    remaining above average,
    although they should be a
    few degrees cooler than the
    last two days.
    The warmer temperatures
    are not great news for the
    ski resorts, which would be
    experiencing significant
    snow melt after their best
    start to the season in a few
    years.
    The warmth was not
    pronounced off the ranges
    though, with maximum
    temperatures generally
    reaching three or four
    degrees above the average,
    with light winds and a
    temperature inversion
    preventing significant mixing
    down to the surface.
    However, Tuggeranong still
    managed its warmest June
    day since 2005 yesterday,
    reaching 17 degrees.
    An unusual weather pattern
    has been causing the
    unseasonably warm
    conditions, with a high over
    southeast Australia sitting
    around 500-to-1000km
    further south than usual at
    this time of year. This is
    combining with a trough
    over the nation’s inland,
    which has been dragging
    down warm and humid air
    sourced from the tropics,
    which will eventually lead to
    rain forming early next
    week.
    This rain will lead to more
    melt across the resorts
    between Monday and
    Wednesday, before showers
    tend to snow from Thursday
    and into the weekend.’

  13. ACCESS is forecasting a tropical dip in isobars on the east and the west quadrant of The Australian mainland..
    This will bring widespread rain for the west coast of WA, SA, VIC, NSW and QLD.
    This week ( mid June) 544 thickness line will remain well south as is the high pressure belt.
    This will encourage warmer temps’ on the mainland and rain on the Alps to melt existing snow

  14. 19th June 2015

    Little snow on the alps currently. The trough favored Sydney with 67mm on the 18th June 2015. Not much in the 7 day outlook either with the next cold pool and 532 thickness line peaking on the s/west WA coast around the 21st Jan and ducking south east on its eastward transition.

  15. NEXT trough and cold pool will approach the S/WA coast on 21st June. A closed low forms in the Bight with a cold pool trailing on its western flank
    Could get a little windy for south SA on the 22nd and 23rd June from a 992 hpa low centred in the Bight
    Varying amounts of rain for south WA , south SA, VIC, NSW and south east Qld as the trough migrates eastward

  16. End of JUNE
    THe high pressure belt is forming an elongated zonal shape this week , the last week of June.
    Noting the westerly belt is far south and the 544 thickness line is well south there too
    mslp remains high over all the mainland

  17. ACCESS is suggesting a decent potential snow event for all of VIC and NSW
    The 532 thickness bubble traverses VIC and cuts off over NSW.
    This snap shows the 12th July 2015

  18. 14TH July 2015

    SYDNEY has its coldest winter in decades
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/nsw/video/watch/28794106/sydney-has-its-coldest-winter-in-decades/#page1

    SYDNEY HAS COLDEST NIGHTS FOR 44 YEARS 1ST TO 15TH JULY 2015
    http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=3876
    “Checking the facts for Sydney Observatory Hill which averaged 7.2°C 1st to 15th July 2015 – I find the next coldest 1st to 15th July was 6.2 in 1971 a 44 year record which is amazing in the face of the ever increasing largest urban heat island (UHI) in Australia.”

    Another cold pool . thrown up by the fujiwarra duo complex forecast by ACCESS

  19. 15th JULY 2015

    ACCESS has 532 bubble in west NSW today and tomorrow.It pushes Even over the qld border and then traverses the North quadrant of NSW toward the coastal border near Toowomba
    However the obs’ suggesting coldest air around forbes/parkes area ( 230m)tonight ..Parkes 4.8 deg c at 5.30pm
    http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/observations/nswall.shtml?ref=hdr

    Although that could be because they have had some cold rain?
    Forbes 17.2mm since 9am

    Basically ACCESS has shifted the coldest air a tad west but approaches stanthorpe 10pm thursday night right up to 10am friday morning
    A good 12 hr window of opportunity

    Noticing a north west infeed /jetstream cloud is traversing the northern quadrant of this 500hpa low strengthening over inland NSW . You can see it wrapping in some of that moisture in to that low on the east flankcurrently . That has to be a bonus for moisture in-feed

    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v…it=Refresh+View

    Temps have dropped nicely in 30 minutes as l type this post
    1.4 deg c drop in Armidale in 30 mins ( 5.1 to 3.7 deg c)
    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN60801/IDN60801.95773.shtml

  20. ACCESS has an intense low centred just south of Tasmania and enshrouds the island on Saturday the

    25th July 2015.

    The low wraps a c0ID p00I 0f 532 thickness into the l0w. Very severe winds, blizzard c0nditi0ns, and I0w Ievel sn0w IikeIy

  21. Reports from Tasmanian cold cyclonic low
    26th July 2015

    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1336559/Re_What_s_happening_in_Tassie#Post1336559

    ‘payshense’ “3° WNW 30-40kts

    Some heavy showers, hail and sleet overnight. Mount Owen has a good covering of snow this morning.
    Hail is becoming more consistent, not much rain now.”
    ‘stalefish’ “Hi all,
    4cm of snow on the ground by 9am with drifts to 10cm and windy.
    Heaps of blowing snow and -1.2 degrees.”

    BOM”DAMAGING NORTHWEST to SOUTHWEST WINDS 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of 100km/h are forecast for all Tasmanian districts during Sunday, although winds are likely to be lighter about some central areas. Gusts may reach 110km/h about the west coast and far south at times.
    In the last 6 hours the strongest wind gusts recorded were 131km/h Hogan Island, 122km/h Low Rocky Point, 113km/h Cape Grim, 109km/h Maatsuyker Island, 100km/h Scotts Peak and Mt Wellington.”

  22. Sorry l haven’t been around regularly. Some ‘curve balls’ and a tad of poor health unfortunately . I think l missed the NSW ECL that brought severe weather in the last week of August. I believe ECL’s are uncommon for late August
    WZ forum has a thread dedicated to the Autumn /winter of 2015 for Australia
    Here
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1339966/Re_August_Winter_2015_Rain_oth#Post1339966

    Here is a sample from ‘yep’..some nice cold results for Tasmania
    “Hobart – August
    Coldest August for overall mean temperature ( min+max ) since 1976. Lowest maxima ( 12.4C ) since 1992 and lowest minima (3.7C) since 1952.

    The minima was the equal 5th lowest on record.

    Winter
    Coldest since 2007 for overall mean temperature. Lowest maxima (12.5C) since 2007 and lowest minima (4.4C) since 1992.

  23. Sorry l haven’t been on board for a few weeks. Some life curve balls and a tad of poor health.

    Low IeveL sn0w 28th August

    There was an ECL in the last week of August 2015 which l believe is quite unusual for August.
    WZ forum has a dedicated thread for Autumn and winter 2015
    A record of this event on the WZforum here
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1339675/Re_NSW_rain_event_warm_trough_#Post1339675

    phot0 by ‘mkeene’ of NOWRA
    “Its been a remarkable couple of days. Over 400mms falling here in 48 hours, 182mms plus 208mms at the official Nowra site, plus a further 20 odd mms today. ”

    “Taken from half way up the escarpment near Mount Cambwarra over looking the country side east of Nowra”

    BTW ..Kiama Dam burst

    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1339966/Re_August_Winter_2015_Rain_oth#Post1339966

    Here is a sample from ‘YEP’ from Tasmania

    “Hobart – August
    Cold

    l;jeveest August for overall mean temperature ( min+max ) since 1976. Lowest maxima ( 12.4C ) since 1992 and lowest minima (3.7C) since 1952.

    The minima was the equal 5th lowest on record.

    Winter
    Coldest since 2007 for overall mean temperature. Lowest maxima (12.5C) since 2007 and lowest minima (4.4C) since 1992.

    FROM JUNE to AUGUST 2015 Winter rainfall anomalies

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