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UKMO’s latest global 5 yr temperature forecast

The forecast seems to have lost its Hockey stick.. Is anyone surprised?


quote
“Figure 3: Observed (black, from Hadley Centre, GISS and NCDC) and predicted (blue) global average annual surface temperature difference relative to 1981-2010. Previous predictions starting from November 1960, 1965,… 2005 are shown in red, and 22 model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), that have not been initialised with observations, are shown in green. In all cases, the shading represents the probable range, such that the observations are expected to lie within the shading 90% of the time. The most recent forecast (blue) starts from November 2014. All data are rolling 12-month mean values. The gap between the black curves and blue shading arises because the last observed value represents the period November 2013 to October 2014 whereas the first forecast period is November 2014 to October 2015.”
READ ON HERE
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc
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Thanks to BOB TISDALE for notifying the blogosphere of this release and forecast
His commentary is here
https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2015/02/05/many-mixed-signals-in-the-ukmos-latest-5-year-global-surface-temperature-forecast/#more-8713

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