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Monsoon trough 2014_2015_2016

This continues from 2013 /2014
https://weathercycles.wordpress.com/category/cyclonestyphoonshurricanes/monsoon-trough/

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The ITCZ ( intertropical convergence zone ) is surprisingly close to the equator for mid October 2014
Some healthy southerly flow down the west coast pacific bodes well for cross equatorial in N/west Australia as the season commences this November 2014
Also some very strong high pressure systems in the mid-Latitudes ( up to 1035 in the Bight mid October)

Some evidence of cyclogenesis along the equatorial line currently with2 cells in the SH

I like the look of this for some early activity..

picture source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=10m&tz=AEDT&area=DRSMC&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

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99 comments on “Monsoon trough 2014_2015_2016

  1. INVEST 98p is expected to move southwest toward the qld coast.
    Here is a snap showing 1004hpa with some radial banding and some outflow
    Some rotation evident with the naked eye on WZ sat pic ( top right blob)

    Looking good here

  2. Just throwing in an ACCESS 240 hrs evaluation here.
    You can see how it captures the tropical lows quite well but and the position of the high pressure belt. Overcooked the intensity and shape of the high pressure belt but overall for + 240 hrs l give this 7/10

  3. 20th FEB 2015…TC MARCIA … CAT 5

    Thanks to ‘synoptic’

    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1311664/69

    Thanks to ‘slider’ of WZforum
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1311598/38

    TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA – EASTERN REGION
    Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
    at: 1812 UTC 19/02/2015

    Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia
    Identifier: 14U
    Data At: 1800 UTC
    Latitude: 21.6S
    Longitude: 150.5E
    Location Accuracy: within 5 nm [9 km]
    Movement Towards: south [187 deg]

    Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
    Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 110 knots [205 km/h]
    Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 155 knots [285 km/h]

    Central Pressure: 929 hPa

    Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
    Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
    Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
    Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [35 km]
    Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
    Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.5/6.5/D3.5/24HRS
    Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
    Radius of outermost closed isobar: 85 nm [155 km]

    FORECAST DATA
    Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
    [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
    +06: 20/0000: 22.4S 150.5E: 015 [030]: 110 [205]: 928
    +12: 20/0600: 23.3S 150.6E: 030 [055]: 070 [130]: 966
    +18: 20/1200: 24.2S 150.9E: 040 [075]: 050 [090]: 983
    +24: 20/1800: 25.2S 151.4E: 055 [100]: 035 [070]: 991
    +36: 21/0600: 26.8S 152.9E: 075 [135]: 030 [055]: 997
    +48: 21/1800: 27.9S 154.2E: 095 [170]: 030 [055]: 995
    +60: 22/0600: 28.7S 155.2E: 110 [210]: 030 [055]: 995
    +72: 22/1800: 29.0S 156.1E: 130 [245]: 030 [055]: 993
    +96: 23/1800: 28.1S 157.7E: 175 [325]: 030 [055]: 994
    +120: 24/1800: 27.7S 160.5E: 265 [490]: 030 [055]: 996

    REMARKS:
    Marcia underwent a period of very rapid intensification during Thursday. CIMSS
    winds show approximately 15 knots of deep layer shear over the system.

    The satellite signature improved markedly during the day with an eye becoming
    visible from about 03Z, and it remains clear. Confidence of the LLCC position is
    therefore high.

    Using EIR from MTSAT DT 6.5 has been derived for the past 3 hours. CI raised to
    6.5 due the consistency of those results over that time.

    Recent movement has been to the south.

    BOM – http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20018.txt

    TIME LAPSE of TC MARCIA from birth to Landfall

    [video src="https://cwaws.s3.amazonaws.com/cyclonetimelapse/Marcia_SoFar.mp4" /]
    Thanks to ‘pabloako’ from
    http://www.cabooltureweather.com/
    http://www.cabooltureweather.com/CycloneTimeLapse/CycloneMarciaTimelapse.asp
    ———
    Thanks to Pablaoko’ for snapping this spectacular image of TC Marcia just before landfall

  4. 20th feb 2015

    Thanks to ‘travdawwg’ for this snap of yeppoon

    Thanks to ‘popeye’

    Middle Percy island gust at 208km/hr

    MSLP got as low as 970hpa
    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94372.shtml

    YEPPON 1pm
    20/01:00pm temp24.2 8.3 Dew point 24.2 100 0.0 N 115 wind 146 Gust 62 79 MSLP 987.8 987.7 rain since 9am66.8


    ——
    TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 32

    Issued at 12:59 pm EST on Friday 20 February 2015
    Headline:

    Marcia weakens to category 3, currently impacting Rockhampton.

    -‘raindammit ‘ said
    “To put the effects of Marcia into perspective and to filter out the sensationalist media noise – Yeppoon is currently experiencing category 2 conditions, Rockhampton category 1.”

  5. ACCESS has exTC Marcia LOW tracking North in to the Coral sea this week joining up with the tropical low near fiji on the monsoon trough
    She lives again here with a lively N/west infeed
    and looks to be an INVEST again by by thursday the 26th , when she is re-connected with the monsoon trough and N/westerly cross equatorial.

    What does ACCESS 240 hrs say .’blowin’ regarding tracking?

  6. ACCESS suggesting an INVEST and good chance for a TC up near the GOC and NE NT peninsula on the 5th March 2015
    A strong NW cross equatorial flow and a massive underneath on the southern flanlk to complete the circuit
    I’ll put a few bob on this one for a TC

    Would the next one be TC Nathan ?

  7. ACCESS has the low forecast above moving westward to consolidate as a strong TC in the N/east Indian ocean by the 8th March. Looking like at least a CAT 3 here


    Thanks to ‘popeye’
    for this windstream snap of the current low

  8. 3rd March 2015

    ACCESS R gradient winds has above low as a cyclone off the WA N/west coast by late Thursday.( 117E 15s )with 4 quadrants meeting the criteria in a small core but a wide wind field
    The low must be motoring west in order to get at that spot by late Thursday !

    ACCESS G is less aggressive in intensity in the short term but still has a TC
    however a very large wind field as the TC transitions southward as an intense TC.
    105E 20 s on Monday

    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v…it=Refresh+View

    snap of the blob 3rd March 2015

  9. ACCESS Ghas spun up a rapidly intensifying TC ( T + 150hrs ( track ~west toward the far nth penimsula) on the 10th of March
    some very strong infeeds entering from the east and the north west equatorial
    This low emerges from that sausage shape low complex out neat the fifi islands currently Access indicating it will form a TC .. on tonight viewing
    As you can see looking very healthy here on tuesday the 10th March

    and you can see the potential in the N/west WA has completely gone

    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=gradient&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

  10. 6th March 2015
    Cross equatorial flow still quite evident across a wide area of the equator. The potential for tropical lows to form looks promising if the High latitude belt plays ball

  11. ACCESS tonight wants to give the N/west Coral sea low to far nth Queensland currently. Looks like a major event ..
    Convection moving toward the Far nth peninsula currently

  12. ACCESS wants to intensify the above INVEST 95p very quickly with a landing near COEN on friday /saturday as a CAT 2-3
    Looking the part on the sat pic’ today with the characteristic white cott0n wool ball Iook.
    ACCESS R wants to intensify this very quickly and still has the Coen region in its sites as ~CAT 3 on the morning of friday the 13th !! . ACC G not quite as strong CAT 1-2

  13. 12th March 2015 TC OLYWN

    Thanks to’desieboy’ from WZ forum for snapping these shots

    TC OLYWYN near WA and TC NATHAN in the north east.

    another good one posted by’desieboy’
    “Hey Pops the Murchison already getting going and look at all the mud and silt flowing down to the ocean …my friend posted this today on facebook at Kalbarri.

    Forum discusiion on TC Olwyn here
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1317001/7

    —–
    thanks to ken Kato for this windstream map

    Here is a time lapse animation showing the TC development over the past few days captured by cabooltureweather.com
    Press play
    http://www.cabooltureweather.com/CycloneTimeLapse/March2015.asp

  14. TC OLWYN lands at Carnavorn on WA coast

    Thanks to ‘desieboy’ for these snaps of damage
    Forum discussion
    “Carnarvon suffered a bit of damage from TC Olywn they had sustained winds from about 9am to 5pm gusting up to 146kms/hr.”
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1318643/Re_Severe_Tropical_Cyclone_Olw#Post1318643
    Australian Banana Growers Council director Tom Day said all bananas, including young plants and bunched trees, had been wiped out by the cyclone.


    TRACKING

    http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/health-fears-as-carnarvon-counts-the-cost-of-tropical-cyclone-olwyn/story-fnhocxo3-1227263581764

    GALLERY
    http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/photos-fnhocxo3-1227262456853

  15. CycI0ne Nathan 19th March 2015

    REMARKS: from B0M
    Severe tropical cyclone Nathan made landfall at approximately 4am this morning
    between Cape Melville and Cape Flattery on the far northeast Queensland coast as
    a 90 knot category 4 system [based on Dvorak analysis]. The coastal crossing
    intensity was also supported by SATCON [90 knots] and ADT [107-115 knots]
    estimates. The highest observation in the vicinity of the landfalling tropical
    cyclone came from Cape Flattery with a peak gust of 170 km/h.

    20th March 2015 . TC NATHAN

  16. TC QUANG CAT 4
    Issued at 9:15 am WST on Thursday 30 April 2015

    Headline:
    Severe Tropical Cyclone Quang, a Category 4 system, and is expected to weaken before reaching the WA coast.
    Areas Affected:

    Watch Zone
    Onslow to Carnarvon.

    Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Quang at 8:00 am WST:

    Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 185 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 260 kilometres per hour.

  17. TC QUANG
    1st May 2015
    “Quote from Weatherzone news sums it up nicely …

    Exmouth resident Jenny Gates said conditions were “horrendous” in the town and she believed the town should be on red alert.

    “I can’t believe that we’re not being told to stay indoors, and we really should be staying indoors even though it says we’re on yellow alert,” she told ABC radio.

    She said winds in the town at midday were worse than she had seen during her 11 years living in Exmouth.

    “[There were] bits of tin flying around, trees already down, fences already down, cars stuck where there is water all over the road, and just far far too dangerous to be out and about,” she said.

    “A lot of the town is recovering from cyclone Olwyn and a lot of the debris is possibly still lying in open places and things and possibly now being picked up and thrown around.”

    ‘All hell broke loose’: Exmouth shire president

    Exmouth shire president Turk Shale said people were unprepared as winds tore down fences, trees and power poles this morning.

    “We’ve just got a little bit of a reprieve but three hours ago all hell broke loose,” he said.

    “Right now we’ve got a deluge of destruction that’s gone through this town like you wouldn’t believe and I think the weather bureau has been caught on the hop on this one.

    “There’s fences down, trees down, powerlines down, we’ve just been whacked,” he said.
    _________________________”
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1327489/8

  18. ACCESS G says A TC centred just east of Darwin on christmas day. Strong gale force cross equatorial passing straight through the guts of Darwin. Hopefully there is a shift in position
    ( t+162 hrs forecast)
    Its core just sitting on the coastline may prevent it from getting a name. But none the less the potential for CAT 2 on land or coast by Christmas day.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v…it=Refresh+View

  19. Cyclogenesis and likely TC for NT on Christmas day. I am not sure if you can name a TC on land but this is strong and ACCESS has upgraded once again. Looking CAT 3 strength for the NE inflow . Has good symmetry
    ACCESS has this land cyclone tracking SE over land currently

  20. This tropical low invest 99 27th dec 2015 has been very slow moving. BOM have cancelled the cyclone watch but none the less there has been lots of rain

    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/you-dont-need-a-cyclone-for-major-flooding/425482
    Extracted
    ” Northern Territory’s western Top End has been subject to torrential rain, leading to major flooding, not because of a tropical cyclone but a very slow-moving monsoon low.

    The Daly region has been seriously affected with major flooding occurring about the Daly River.

    Mango Farm is quickly filling the watering can with a running total of more than 600mm of rain in the last 6 days, with 450mm of that falling in the past two days, well above its monthly average of 245mm. This also makes it the biggest downpour in at least 35 years.

    Darwin itself has not escaped the drenching either, gaining more than 300mm during the past seven days, not far short of its monthly average of 397mm. Darwin Hospital has had its wettest week in 5 years.

    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/burketown-flooding-helicopters-to-rescue-people-stranded-in-queenslands-gulf-country/425409

    extract
    “Helicopters are being brought in to rescue people still stranded by floods in Queensland’s Gulf Country.

    Roads remain cut to Burketown and Doomadgee after heavy rain on Saturday but authorities said weather had eased overnight.

    The downpour saw 70 people become stranded, with all but 10 retrieved on Saturday.”
    DALY RIVER IN MAJOR FLOOD
    “About half the community of Daly River (Nauiyu) have spent the night in Darwin’s Foskey Pavilion after being evacuated by helicopter and bus due to floodwaters.

    The remaining 234 people will be evacuated from the community today.
    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/200-daly-river-residents-spend-night-in-darwin-evacuation-centre-man-remains-missing-in-floodwaters/425384

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