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Mega Indian monsoon failure .. The next one is?

Research and forecasting by IAN WILSON says the next BIG ONE could be 2018-2020..25% chance

Wilson, Ian R.G., 2009,

Can We Predict the Next Indian Mega-Famine?

Energy and Environment, Vol 20,
Numbers 1-2, pp. 11-24.
bengal famine

http://multi-science.metapress.com/content/a15v07801838k763/

ABSTRACT

Catastrophic multi-year failure of the Indian monsoon has caused at least eight
mega-famines in India over the last 1100 years.

Historical data shows that sevenout of the eight mega-famines have either started within ± one year of the year of greatest asymmetry in the Sun’s motion about the Solar System’s centre-of-mass,
or 11 years ± one year after this event.
The Sun is currently experiencing a maximum in the asymmetry of its motion about the centre-of-mass.

Evidence is presented to show that there is almost a 1-in-4 the chance that there will be another
Indian mega-famine in 2018-20.

While the chance of such a catastrophic event occurring is small, it is large enough that the governments on the Indian subcontinent
should take precautionary measures to confront this potentially
devastating threat.
——————————-
Ian Wilsons comments at Tallbloke blog
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/06/25/david-archibald-the-edge-of-a-cold-deep-abyss/comment-page-1/#comment-81283
26th June 2014
The current onset of the 2014 Indian Monsoon is two weeks late and down 38 %
on integrated all-India rainfall, similar to what happened in 2009.

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/Monsoon_frame.htm

Let’s hope that is not an indicator of an upcoming multi-year failure of the
Indian Monsoon in about 4 – 5 years time.

http://multi-science.metapress.com/content/a15v07801838k763/
—————————

Hopefully we are better off to help these people next time
Frightening pictures here!!
Absolutely sickening !!
http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=picture+IndiA+FAMINE&qpvt=picture+IndiA+FAMINE&FORM=IGRE

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2 comments on “Mega Indian monsoon failure .. The next one is?

  1. Thanks to Gail Combs from a post at tallbloke wordpress for this link on
    Multidecadal to multicentury scale collapses of Northern Hemisphere monsoons over the past millennium

    Yemane Asmeroma,1,
    Victor J. Polyaka,
    Jessica B. T. Rasmussenb,
    Stephen J. Burnsc, and
    Matthew Lachnietd

    Edited by Zhiming Kuang, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, and accepted by the Editorial Board April 25, 2013 (received for review August 29, 2012)

    http://www.pnas.org/content/110/24/9651.abstract

    Abstract

    Late Holocene climate in western North America was punctuated by periods of extended aridity called megadroughts. These droughts have been linked to cool eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Here, we show both short-term and long-term climate variability over the last 1,500 y from annual band thickness and stable isotope speleothem data. Several megadroughts are evident, including a multicentury one, AD 1350–1650, herein referred to as Super Drought, which corresponds to the coldest period of the Little Ice Age. Synchronicity between southwestern North American, Chinese, and West African monsoon precipitation suggests the megadroughts were hemispheric in scale. Northern Hemisphere monsoon strength over the last millennium is positively correlated with Northern Hemisphere temperature and North Atlantic SST. The megadroughts are associated with cooler than average SST and Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Furthermore, the megadroughts, including the Super Drought, coincide with solar insolation minima, suggesting that solar forcing of sea surface and atmospheric temperatures may generate variations in the strength of Northern Hemisphere monsoons. Our findings seem to suggest stronger (wetter) Northern Hemisphere monsoons with increased warming.

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