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Schwabe Triplets and Earths climate

“The solar cycle was discovered in 1843 by Samuel Heinrich Schwabe,”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle

Here l am starting a post on some research l am doing on solar cycles, planetary motion and simple correlations to Earths macro climate

Please click the title of this post to load further information and comments , found at the base of this page

TITLE

SCHWABBE TRIPLETS

schwabe triplets time series

https://picasaweb.google.com/110600540172511797362/TIMESERIESAndTrends#6017611658711370978

The schwabe triplets coincide with the AMO and global temp cycle

The length of the AMO/global temp oscillation appears to be determined by the length of the schwabe triplet which is made up of 3 schwabes of varying length ( one AMO phase)

 

duo_triplet schwabe overlay

Firstly l would like to thank Dr Scafetta for publishing his fine research on the links between planetary motion and the earths climate. This was my first encounter with this branch of science l was totally in awe of his findings in particular his research based on CYCLES ( natural variation of the earths climate)
http://people.duke.edu/~ns2002/

Secondly l would like to thank Tallbloke wordpress
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/
( and all of the management and his contributors to opening my eyes to a side branch of Scafetta’ research and that is the role of

PHI

in the structure of the solar system including the earth.
I am attempting to keep an index of all there posts related to this study
https://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2013/08/29/current-research-on-tallbloke-wordpress/

I have spent much time over the course of the past couple of years collecting information on cycles

Quite recently l have come across a solar and planetary link to global temperature trends.
I have not seen any research on this topic of SCHWABE TRIPLETS

So l thought it wise to start my own on-line on-going research whilst l progressively delve into this concept

My notes and diagrams below in the comments section are a record and a place to store findings and information

Feel free to follow my progress and feel free to comment
Regards
FROM SUSAN MORROW. TWEED HEADS NSW AUSTRALIA
ALIAS(‘CRIKEY OR WEATHERCYCLES)
——————————————-

…Be warned. Nothing is in order. I am posting as l go.

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117 comments on “Schwabe Triplets and Earths climate

  1. Hi Sue,
    I’m so sorry I missed the exchange with you and Ian. I’ve been out of action with a hip
    injury. I’m looking forward to resuming your important work on the Schwabe triplets.

    I did see Ian’s web post on El Nino / La Nina and the lunar tides. Very nice! The connection between the lunar cycles, ocean heat circulation and climate variability
    is very convincing.

  2. Hi TOM ..Wondered if you were ok cos you didn’t answer my email. Great to see you are OK .. I found it interesting that Ians epochs are exactly one solar cycle out of phase with the schwabe triplets. Not sure if this is a constant or if there is a progressive shift over time as you mentioned with the Jupiter/ saturn beat
    I am a bit rusty having not been in study recently so forgive if l am not clear .
    Jo Nova et al did a study on an 11 yr lag
    http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/06/17/david-evans-jo-nova-analysing-the-11-year-lag-in-climate-response-to-solar-input/comment-page-1/#comment-80652
    This lag of on e solar cycle seems to crop up a bit in research results
    However as l said to Ian. THe schwabe triplets and Earths !quasi temperatutre 66yr cycle has no lag.This is very significant as it implies the global temp is governed by an instanbtaneous reaction. Not a lag variable.
    Why l believe this is that Global temp in the 66y nr cycle has an inflection point ( switch).
    One way this could be explained is by something like the simple gas law
    PV=nRT
    and instant change in pressure produces an instant change in temperature
    For this reason it is useful to consider what solar system dynamics can change the pressure on the earth and its atmosphere. How can the major planets affect the combined density of the earth and its atmosphere. ? If the atmosphere shrinks or expands the temp should increase or decrease in a closed system. This might be seen on other planets as well simultaneously?
    The shape and volume of the solar system changes over time?
    Does our position in our galaxy affect the density/pressure? of our earth and its atmosphere? etc

  3. Here l have taken a graph by DRESCHOFF 2007 ICRC
    http://galprop.stanford.edu/elibrary/icrc/2007/preliminary/pdf/icrc1164.pdf

    and have correlated this graph of his with the schwabe triplets.
    I noted he used 3 schwabe groupings which of course is what this post is all about.
    So of course it caught my attention

    Dreschhoff did some sort of math’ to the schwabe groupings and came up with the graph below which l have annotated and superimposed the schwabe triplets related to global cooling phase ( ~33yr) of the ~66 yr global temperature cycle.

    I think there is something in this. In particular note the end of the schwabe triplet is often aligned with the peak or trough of his graph

    Can you help me understand waht his graphs are about TOM?
    what do you think?

    —-
    quick link to my graphs here
    https://picasaweb.google.com/110600540172511797362/SCHWABETRIPLETS#6237717827896808162

  4. Geoff Sharp has visited on TOM Mangos post on Jupiter saturn and the suns barycentre
    He posted this graph below showing angumar momentum of the SUN of which l have no further info until l go to his site
    http://www.landscheidt.info/

    l thought l would take the graph he posted here and discussed
    https://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2016/01/08/earths-climate-linked-to-jupiter-saturn-and-the-solar-system-barycentre-discussion-open/comment-page-1/#comment-4241

    and overlay the dates of the individual basic schwabe cycle and the the schwabe triplets
    The dates commence at troughs for the schwabe cycles


    ———————————————————————
    RESULTS

    graph stored here
    https://picasaweb.google.com/110600540172511797362/SCHWABETRIPLETS#
    ——————————————————————–

    TRENDS / CORRELATIONS

    There is symmetry in the position of the schwabe cycle troughs on the SOLAR angular momentum graph.
    Within the ORDERED charatova phase the termination of a schwabe ( solar cycle minima) seem coincident/aligned with the timing of peaks and troughs of the angular momentum cycle of the SUN. See solar cycle 12 – 16 on the graph

    this is significant as Tom and Geoff have said Neptune and uranus are in opposition and provide a balanced and less perturbed solar system.
    The timing of the schwabe cycles during the next ordered phase may be predicted ?
    However although Geoff has shown a repeating cycle from the angular momentum of the SUN.
    The schwabe overlay suggests that the individual schwabes are not locked into this cycle. except perhaps in the ordered charatova phase

    Even outside the ordered phase there appears to be a symmetry of the positioning of the individual schwabes although not so obvious
    I can see 2 possible patterns in the dis-ordered phase
    . Have a look at schwabe triplet on either side of the charatova ordered phase
    and
    the start of each U/N angular momentum cycle

    I am very encouraged that the each of the schwabe triplets terminate dates align with 5 out of 7 of the SOLAR angular momentum peaks or troughs

    I found it interesting that the end of a schwabe triplet seemed to dissect the ordered Charatova phase ( 1913 )

    The schwabe triplets don’t seem locked to the SOLAR ANGULAR MOMENTUM but there is sufficient evidence here that the U/N pair has a significant role in the timing of the schwabes and the triplets
    I think further proof of the need to integrate our knowledge into systems analysis
    No pair of planets is an island

    There is insufficent solar schwabe data to see if the schwabes will fall into synch with SOLAR angular momentum again in the years 2070 – 2110 when we once again have ordered Charatova phase when U/N are in opposition

    I have not been able to establish if the schwabe triplet series ( known ~66 yr temp cycle) has any link to the known De Vries ~200 yr global temp cycle. (The maunder, dalton minimums etc)

    and still looking for the forcing factor/s for the various earth global temp cycles

    Individual schwabes have negligible effect on earths temps but 3 ( triplet) does.
    and this result indicates the position of U/N is involved but not the sole cause

    **************

    IN PROGRESS .. GEOFF SHARP has emailed me and highlighted the fact that l have misinterpreted his graph. He is still interested in the graph and will respond another day

    His initial comment
    posted below date 21/02/2016
    “Geoff Sharp
    To havissue@yahoo.com.au Today at 12:38 PM
    Hi Sue your post looks interesting.

    I havent had time yet to look at it in detail but can point out a couple of things.

    The graph is the angular momentum of the Sun , not U/N.
    My last name is spelt Sharp 🙂

    Of interest is that the solar cycles DO NOT line up with the peaks and troughs of Solar AM (many falsely believe they do)

    Will comment more on your site soon.

    Geoff

  5. BASIC SCHWABE SOLAR CYCLE LENGTH
    SNAPPED FROM TALLBLOKE
    “Hi lgl and Tenuc.
    It’s also worth considering the fact that although the average solar cycle is ~11.1, the actual solar cycle lengths cluster around 10.38 and 12.01 years. These are well known planetary alignment periodicities:”
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2010/07/20/timo-niroma-on-solar-cycle-lengths/
    Timo – scl

    ———————————————————————-

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2010/08/21/breakthrough-major-discovery-on-planetary-solar-connection/
    ——————————————————————–
    and some observations from ‘oldbrew
    “The range of years on Timo Niroma’s ‘probability distribution of the sunspot lengths’ chart is a factor of 8/5:
    8.7y x 8/5 = 13.92y

    The difference is 13.92 – 8.7 = 5.22y

    Taking the J+S value as 8.4561445y we get:
    8.4561445y x phi = 13.682328y
    The difference is 5.226184

    So the same time gap, but with a start point at a slightly lower value (a time difference very close to one Mercury orbit or one Jupiter-Mercury conjunction).

    Update 2/2/16: the ratio of 13.92:8.7:5.22 = 8:5:3”
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/12/21/why-phi-an-orbital-parameters-test/comment-page-2/#comment-113902
    ———–
    more from oldbrew’
    “Landscheidt wrote:
    ‘The Golden section has left its mark, too, upon the 11-year sunspot cycle. Reliable data are available since 1750. They show that the ascending part of the cycle has a mean length of 4.3 years [73]. The mean cycle length amounts to 11.05 years. The minor of the mean length falls at 4.2 years (11.05 years × 0.382 = 4.22 years). This is close to 4.3 years. Thus, the maximum of the 11-year cycle falls at the minor of the Golden section. The descending wing of the cycle has the length of the major. This contributes to the stabilization of solar activity which is characterized by phenomena generated by instability.’

    SOLAR ACTIVITY: A DOMINANT FACTOR IN CLIMATE DYNAMICS
    by Dr Theodor Landscheidt
    http://www.john-daly.com/solar/solar.htm

    NB 4.2 or 4.3 years looks a lot like J+S/2 (8.456/2 = 4.228)”
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/12/21/why-phi-an-orbital-parameters-test/comment-page-2/#comment-113371
    ————————————–
    I don’t want to leave the phi golden section theories out of my schwabe triplet research.
    The whole solar system is governed by the phi phenomena
    Tallbloke has the best information for this topic

  6. Just notifying readers that l made an error in reading Geoff sharp diagram of angular momentum , 2 posts above
    Please go back and read the post which will be modified in due time
    ————-

  7. It should be possible to plot the Schwabe cycles of the 1700-1760 ordered phase using the Group Sunspot Numbers onto the AM graph. The records are not quite as precise and modulation of the early years is in some contention, but should suffice.

    My thoughts are any two cycles with similar lengths are going to go in and out of phase, but the results could be interesting.

  8. unfortunately..A quick google for that 1700-1760 data suggests the data isn’t reliable.
    However l had a go anyway and the answer is surprisingly promising
    —–

    http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-iarticle_query?bibcode=1988SoPh..115..171D&db_key=AST&page_ind=2&data_type=GIF&type=SCREEN_VIEW&classic=YES
    source
    Title:

    The phase variations of the solar cycle

    Authors: Dicke, R. H.
    Journal: Solar Physics (ISSN 0038-0938), vol. 115, no. 1, 1988, p. 171-181. NSF-supported research.
    Bibliographic Code: 1988SoPh..115..171D
    ———–
    Here l have marked the ordered charatova phase on the graph below as GEOFF SHARPE suggested for
    ( 1705 -1755)
    I think Geoff and Tom will be pleased with these results

    and then lets have a look at the suns angular momentum cycle during the charatova ordered phase
    1705- 1755

    larger zoom in facility and original graph here
    https://picasaweb.google.com/110600540172511797362/SCHWABETRIPLETS#6255115545692325634

    I think this result is amazing
    It appears the schwabes are in phase with the suns angular momentum during the ordered phase

    I believe Uranus and Neptune are in opposition during the middle of ordered charatova phase..which indicates the role that U/N may play in balance of the solar system?
    or at least have a role in the timing of the schwabe beat?
    and adds weight to the fact that the outer 4 planets have a major role in solar dynamics
    This also links to earths climate as the schwabe triplets and global temp cycle ( order ~66yr)
    is linked to the schwabe timings.
    The above result indicates a possible repeat cycle for the schwabes in the suns angular momentum cycle.
    I believe the suns angular momentum cycle is caused by the motion of the larger 4 outer planets
    ( J/S) and ( N/U)
    The results also indicate these planets are most likely responsible for the solar schwabe cycle.
    What do you think?

    also that old suns spot data might be more reliable than EDDY thought

  9. Sue, the data you have used is quite old, and one has to be careful manually plotting onto a diagram.
    The data collected during the said period has a lot of missing days, so there is some question on the amplitude of the solar cycles involved. But there is good agreement on the solar cycle timing when using the latest attempt at the group sunspot numbers and the SILSO sunspot numbers. Both data sets have a different source, so some confidence is gained.

    The latest GSN numbers:

    http://www.leif.org/research/Reconstruction-of-Group-Number-1610-2015.pdf

    SILSO sunspot numbers:

    http://www.sidc.be/silso/yearlyssnplot

    And my attempt to plot the years:

    Dates I used:

    I don’t see a correlation when using the above data. My research continues to suggest there is absolutely no link in solar cycle timing and the path of the Sun around the SSB (Angular Momentum etc). But I do see a link when comparing AM modulation (values above and below the centre line on the AM graph) and solar cycle modulation, but ONLY if solar grand minima are excluded. All solar grand minima happen at the green arrows when the AM, solar path, velocity etc are perturbed and override the normal 172 year modulation wave of AM.

  10. resending

    Sue, the data you have used is quite old, and one has to be careful manually plotting onto a diagram.
    The data collected during the said period has a lot of missing days, so there is some question on the amplitude of the solar cycles involved. But there is good agreement on the solar cycle timing when using the latest attempt at the group sunspot numbers and the SILSO sunspot numbers. Both data sets have a different source, so some confidence is gained.

    The latest GSN numbers:

    http://www.leif.org/research/Reconstruction-of-Group-Number-1610-2015.pdf

    SILSO sunspot numbers:

    http://www.sidc.be/silso/yearlyssnplot

    And my attempt to plot the years:

    Dates I used:

    I don’t see a correlation when using the above data. My research continues to suggest there is absolutely no link in solar cycle timing and the path of the Sun around the SSB (Angular Momentum etc). But I do see a link when comparing AM modulation (values above and below the centre line on the AM graph) and solar cycle modulation, but ONLY if solar grand minima are excluded. All solar grand minima happen at the green arrows when the AM, solar path, velocity etc are perturbed and override the normal 172 year modulation wave of AM.

  11. Sorry..some dramas with the moderation queue …think I got it right this time…feel free to clean up.

    Sue, the data you have used is quite old, and one has to be careful manually plotting onto a diagram.
    The data collected during the said period has a lot of missing days, so there is some question on the amplitude of the solar cycles involved. But there is good agreement on the solar cycle timing when using the latest attempt at the group sunspot numbers and the SILSO sunspot numbers. Both data sets have a different source, so some confidence is gained.

    The latest GSN numbers:

    http://www.leif.org/research/Reconstruction-of-Group-Number-1610-2015.pdf

    SILSO sunspot numbers:

    http://www.sidc.be/silso/yearlyssnplot

    And my attempt to plot the years:

    Dates I used:

    I don’t see a correlation when using the above data. My research continues to suggest there is absolutely no link in solar cycle timing and the path of the Sun around the SSB (Angular Momentum etc). But I do see a link when comparing AM modulation (values above and below the centre line on the AM graph) and solar cycle modulation, but ONLY if solar grand minima are excluded. All solar grand minima happen at the green arrows when the AM, solar path, velocity etc are perturbed and override the normal 172 year modulation wave of AM.

  12. Thanks for your time and effort Geoff.
    I have approved the comments held in moderation and they now appear above. Thanks.
    I am away currently and will go over the more recent estimations of solar minimum which you have provided at a later date.
    Solar minimum is the position l plot for my schwabe triplets research. ( your pink dots)
    I am noting 2 of the 4 pink dots ( solar minimum) align with the angular momentum peaks or troughs from your analysis whereas the data l used there was 4 out of 4 aligned.
    Accuracy and reliability of data is always a problem with scientific research
    I guess we will just keep plodding on
    PS
    I liked your annotation of the 1700 solar cycles as minus -1 , -2 etc ..

    what do you think times the individual schwabe ( basic solar cycle ) unit? In particular the timing of the solar troughs

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