Image

TC ITA .. April 2014…. Far nth peninsula of Australia..

An INVEST is already current for this low ( 97p)
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1253213#Post1253213

Looking at the sat pic’tonight there is considerable enhanced convection and banding present. Indicating cyclogenesis is well on the way. Some nice symmetrical structure as well curently

INVEST 97p 4th april2014

which has ben causing devastation around the Solomon islands as a tropical storm
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/flash-flooding-in-solomon-islands-leaves-at-least-16-dead-thousands-homeless/33746

The ACCESS model suggests a westward tracking toward the far nth tip of QLD by the 10th April . Although ACCESS R suggests this could be earlier.
ACCESS R suggesting TC status as early as the 6th /7th April where as ACCESSG a few days later about the 9th April.

There is likely to be considerable land interference from New guinea and islands
ACCESS suggests the low will encompass the whole of Papua new Guinea with the TC embedded in the southern flank near the Far nth QLD peninsula

invest 97 p possibleTC ita windstreams forecast 9th march 2014

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=500hPa&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

A news article from weatherzone also confirms likely TC
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/late-season-low-in-the-coral-sea/34324

Advertisements

85 comments on “TC ITA .. April 2014…. Far nth peninsula of Australia..

  1. tc ITA 11th april 2014 cape flattery obs

    source
    http://www.eldersweather.com.au/obshist.jsp?lt=site&lc=31213
    ———————-
    comment fron’unsettled’ from WZ forum
    quote
    “I don’t see a problem with the Cape Flattery obs, the BOM has been commenting on the very tight core for a while:

    Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 105 knots [195 km/h]
    Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 150 knots [275 km/h]
    Central Pressure: 940 hPa
    …..
    Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [35 km]
    Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [15 km

    So there’s a narrow eyewall 30km in diameter with the max winds, then from there to the 70km diameter it’s in the 64 knot range. My take on the radar is that the eye is passing just to the West of the cape itself, so it fits the obs of 61 knots perfectly for mine.
    ——————–
    and comment from’raindammit’ from same source

    “Lowest recorded pressure at Cape Flattery: 961.5Hpa at 9:40pm
    Highest wind gust: 159km/h at 9:00pm
    _______________________

    BOM NOTES
    Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita at 10:00 pm EST:
    .Centre located near…… 14.9 degrees South 145.3 degrees East
    .Location accuracy…….. within 20 kilometres
    .Recent movement………. towards the south southwest at 10 kilometres per hour
    .Wind gusts near centre… 230 kilometres per hour

    .Severity category…….. 4
    .Central pressure……… 955 hectoPascals

  2. ACCESS R suggesting the centre of this low TS/CAT? will move down along the coast VERY slowly over the next 3 days and arriving at 20 s on Monday.
    That’s 3 days !! sat, sunday and monday of an ex cyclone dumping the remnants down nth coast. mainly south of this low
    Even giving the mid coast a share
    Looking ahead. Landfall is just the start of this event.

    tc Ita remnants 12th -15th 2014
    source

    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=AEDT&area=Qld&model=R&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

  3. comments from WZ forum
    ‘wilopete said
    “Nice steady rain in the Daintree here… My neighbour has recorded 4.5 mtrs of rain so far this year 1.8m in march…. All this now should add to a good running total…

  4. 11th april rain TC ITA

    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/north.shtml
    ————————-

    Daintree River flood fears

    Meanwhile, residents in the Daintree Village, north of Port Douglas, are being urged to go to higher ground, with the Daintree River expected to exceed 1996 flood levels within the next few hours.

    Flood forecaster Jess Carey says a major flood warning is in place for the Daintree River, with a peak of 15.2 metres recorded upstream at Bairds Crossing.

    “We’re talking sort of 10-plus metres above what we’re usually seeing, so it’s a very large volume of water and it’s probably breaking out onto the flood plain,” she said.
    source
    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/cyclone-ita-several-rescued-from-floodwaters-in-far-north-queensland/39666
    —————

    LIONS DEN HOTEL

    lions den hotel flooding
    https://www.facebook.com/pages/Lions-Den-Hotel/468738690721

  5. Thanks to ‘Mick 10’ for snapping this news photo

    roof damage

    also seen some footage on ch7 this morning off the roof being torn off the hotel during the night. the owner spent the rest of the night sleeping in the freezer wrapped in blankets

    seems several houses in the area have lost their roofes. no communications yet with surrounding towns.

    also reports a man who was with his boat was found staggering through the streets during the height of the storm and found by policeman who was looking out the window at the time
    ————–

    and
    from news
    cairns tree down

  6. JOAN THE SPARK’ from WZforum. Thanks for your pic’ MALANDA Queensland
    242mm rain since 9:00 today at NE of Lake Tinaroo, oh and the Malanda Falls don’t fall any more, the water runs straight over the usually ~3m drop

    flodwaters 12th april2014 qld

  7. Continue to be gobsmacked at how ACCESS can predict the surface wind pattern( synoptic ) in this case 5 days ahead ( T +126 hrs)
    (ACTUALY I THINK 1KM IS THE 850 HPA NEAR SURFACE LAYER)
    THis snap compares the forecast for T +126 hrs and not quite the actual but the day before cos l forgot top snap the right one
    But none the less check this out
    8/10
    Personally l reckon that is amazing.
    I have done this a few times now. Thought that the first few times were a fluke.
    No way!
    cheers ACCESS
    The first snap is ACC G and the final snap is ACCESS R
    Just loo kat the ACCURACY OF THE MAJOR SYNOTIC FEATURES.kUDOS TO DEVELOPERS

    COMAPRE ACcESS T126 HRS FORECAST WITH ACTUAL  april 2014

  8. 13th April 2014
    Ex ITA over Townsville
    Comment from ‘Mick10’ from WZ forum

    “WOW!!! what a morning. been out getting some pix and video of the wind and some of the minor damage around town. some rather large trees have brought down power lines in some areas. but large part of the city are still flooded but gradually going down.”

    got plenty of video and pix to post later.

    at home 220mm of rain in the 24hours ending 9am.

    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1259401/199

  9. The Australian Banana Growers’ Council (ABGC) has assessed early reports of damage wrought by Cyclone Ita on North Queensland plantations, including four banana farms in Lakeland and one in Hope Vale. Bureau of Meteorology Cyclone Ita

    While communication has been cut to a banana farm at an indigenous community in Hope Vale, helicopter surveillance showed that its entire 40-hectare crop was destroyed.

    http://www.freshfruitportal.com/2014/04/12/cyclone-ita-hits-australian-banana-growers/?country=others

  10. 13th April rain totals
    13th April 2014 Rain totals Australia
    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
    ————————
    A report from weather zone
    TC Ita powers south
    Ben McBurney, Sunday April 13, 2014 – 10:38 EST

    Tropical Cyclone Ita has weakened into a Category 1 system but is still packing a punch as it moves southeast along the tropical Queensland coast bringing large amounts of rain and damaging winds.

    At 10am EST, the system was located just to the northeast of Townsville, tracking southeast likely affecting Mackay later today before passing close to Yeppoon tomorrow morning.

    Ita has been dumping extremely heavy rain in its path, with widespread falls of 100 to 200mm with some places seeing as much as 200 to 400mm. Ingham collected 245mm and Townsville 177mm in the 24 hours to 9am today, the towns’ biggest rain since 2009. For Ingham, this was also the heaviest April fall in 45 years of records. Cardwell recorded a massive 307mm, its wettest April day since 1911.

    While winds have not been as strong as yesterday, they have still been damaging in parts with gusts reaching 96km/h at Lucinda Point early this morning, 106km/h at Cape Ferguson and 93km/h at Townsville.

    The system has also been accompanied by very large waves reaching close to seven metres, leading to coastal flooding and inundation.

    As Ita continues to track down the QLD coast, it is expected to maintain tropical cyclone strength before moving offshore tomorrow. However, while the system remains near the coast, further wild weather is likely. Falls in the order of 100 to 200mm are expected with isolated falls of up to 400mm, while wind gusts reaching 110km/h are also likely. Large waves and abnormally high tides are also likely to persist.

    Conditions will ease significantly from Tuesday as Ita transitions into a powerful extra-tropical system and speeds off towards New Zealand.
    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tc-ita-powers-south/40287

    © Weatherzone 2014

  11. Just catching the edges of the rain band near Tweed Heads currently with light drizzle
    ACCESS R is still showing some tight rotation of gradient winds very close to the coast.
    This looks a lot like a CAT 2 hybrid off the shore from the mid coast tomorrow

    Tuesday 4pm off shore at 27 s ( qld /nsw border)looking even stronger
    ITA is getting ready to ramp up and terrorise NZ in days to come

    Willie weather giving us up to 10mm tomorrow
    Winds at 29 knots!! ( ~ 55 km/hr sustained ..gusts? maybe 70km/hr?from tomorrow afternoon and ALL day Tuesday as well coming from the southern flank of this TC CAT 1

    Might go and check out the swell tomorrow forecast a 2m

    Could get a bit crazy from Monday arvo and all day Tuesday

    Depends on how quickly she moves off shore

    14th april 2014 TC ITA near sth east qld

    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=gradient&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

  12. 13th April 2014
    Details of Tropical Cyclone Ita at 7:00 pm EST:
    .Centre located near…… 20.4 degrees South 149.1 degrees East
    .Location accuracy…….. within 35 kilometres
    .Recent movement………. towards the southeast at 28 kilometres per hour
    .Wind gusts near centre… 95 kilometres per hour

    .Severity category…….. 1
    .Central pressure……… 995 hectoPascals

    The next advice will be issued at approximately 8:00 pm EST Sunday 13 April.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s