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FIJI and NEW ZEALAND cyclone alert… March 2014

ACCESS G is indicating a very large intense cyclone developing.
Currently there is an INVEST for this low

SH99 2014 – INVEST

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH992014

LOOKING GOOD ALREADY
SH 99 invest image

ACCESS suggesting this TC will pass close by FIJI at 981 hPa around the 12th March 2014
and then tracks south west to make landfall on the tip of the Nth Island of new Zealand approaching the Northern tip at 981 hpa

Here is a snap of the wind streams that will update as the days go by
I will take a snap for archives soon
Very impressed with the wind stream pattern below. Cross equatorial feding widely across the pacific and a very large high to provide equally large input from the south east.. A massive structure !
THe TC has a small parasite low’ attached to its eastern flank Looking like Mother.. and what a’ mother’!! and little daughter, pimple on an almost perfect storm.
ACCESS fiji cyclone 12th march 2014

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=gradient&tz=AEDT&area=DRSMC&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

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9 comments on “FIJI and NEW ZEALAND cyclone alert… March 2014

  1. CYCLONE LUSI

    Thanks to ‘yasified shak’ from WZ forum for a snap of the current tracking
    and the forum thread to follow
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1248211/Re_Cyclone_Lusi_South_Pacific_#Post1248211

    Cylone LUSI tracking March 10 2014

    Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 2 for Torba, Sanma, Penama and Malampa .

    Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 2 issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards
    Department, Port Vila at
    11:57am VUT Monday 10 March 2014 for Torba, Sanma, Penama and Malampa .

    At 11:00am local time today, the previous Tropical Low has been named
    Tropical Cyclone Lusi. Tropical Cyclone Lusi was located at
    14.2 degrees South 167.0 degrees East. The system is positioned at
    the top left corner of square letter G, number 4 (G, 4) of the Vanuatu
    Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map. This is is about 90 KM north northeast of
    Santo and 55 KM southwest of Banks. TC Lusi moved in a
    northeast direction at 14 KM/HR (8 knots).

    The central pressure of the system is estimated at 990 hPa. Winds close to the
    centre are estimated at 85 KM/HR, and expected to intensify in
    the next 24 hours. The system is forecast to be at
    14.6 degrees South 167.4 degrees East within the next 06 to 12 hours.

    Damaging gale force winds of 85 KM/HR are expected to affect
    Torba, Sanma, Penama and Malampa . Winds over these areas may strengthen
    as the system intensifies.

    Forecast Positions
    Date and Time Position Intensity
    +06 hours (5pm, 10 Mar) 14.3S, 167.0E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
    +12 hours (11pm, 10 Mar) 14.6S, 167.4E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
    +18 hours (5am, 11 Mar) 14.9S, 167.8E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
    +24 hours (11am, 11 Mar) 15.3S, 168.6E 50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
    +36 hours (11pm, 11 Mar) 16.5S, 170.5E 50 KTS
    http://www.meteo.gov.vu/TropicalCyclones/Warning/tabid/172/Default.aspx

  2. Amazing wind stream map forecast for Wednesday 12th March 2014

    Triplet CYCLONES across the equatorial..! and a minor low in the N/west as well

    LOOKING LIKE A CAT 2/3 near FIJI on Wednesday the 12th March

    2014

    Satellite picture going to fantastic

    Try and find any high pressure in the coral or tasman sea in this shot.. You won’t . Its FULL OF CYCLONE.. !! and more troughing down south

    TC triplets Gillian hadi and Lusi 12th march 2014

    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=gradient&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

    On this snap TC Hadi is taking a slice of the infeeds from TC LUSI
    Maybe this is a good thing as TC LUSI was looking to be dangerously large

    Maybe LUSI will be tempered by the involvement of HADI in the windstreams

    A risk is also the FUJIWARRA effect. When 2 lows in proximity they have a tendency to rotate around each other

    That would mean TC LUSI would be drawn south west and TC HADI would rotate above TC LUSI to sit close to equator

    THe risk of HADI tracking back to the monsoon trough line at 157 E 15s is that is in a good situation to connect with cross equatorial flow and south east trades once TC LUSI has gone to New Zealand

    THis leaves TC HADI to re-ignite as a new and refreshed cyclone

  3. Considering this could turn out top be a major weather event , thought l would take a few travel snaps

    Here is tonights mid layer 500hpa. 10th march 2014. I have marked the TC’s position as red stars

    Quite unstructured really
    Some good strong mid layer cross equatorial across the board
    Only Gillian and Luci rotating at mid layer currently

    midlayer wind 1oth march 2014

    and the 200hpa upper layer
    showing each TC is located within its own section of high pressure sitting on top and north of the sub tropical jet

    200hpa 10th march 2014 Australia

  4. ACCESS has TC LUSI steering west of FIJI ..Also ACCESS has downgraded the intensity of LUSI and approaches Nth New Zealand as an intense low/CAT 1 Saturday and a trough low by Monday
    Still should bring some rain and wind to both FIJI and new Zealand
    But quite a massive downgrade

  5. JENNI’ a contributor to WZ forum is reporting from NZ on the event
    Thanks!.
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1249170/Re_New_Zealand_Weather#Post1249170

    New zealand .Damage from EX LUCI

    Forecast for tonight and tomorrow from NZ Metservice:
    Lusi is expected to be centred about 300km west of Auckland at midnight tonight. The low will then move southwards to cross northern parts of the South Island Sunday evening. Widespread rain and easterly gales, already affecting northern North Island areas, are spreading southwards today. The heaviest falls today are expected about Coromandel Peninsula and western Bay of Plenty, where 150 to 200mm could accumulate. Heavy rain warnings are also in place for the eastern hills of Northland, the ranges of eastern Bay of Plenty and Gisborne, as well as the ranges of Hawkes Bay.
    For the upper South Island, Marlborough and Nelson look set to receive the most intense rainfall, with 150 to 200mm possible in the ranges of northwest Nelson and 120 to 150mm about the ranges of Marlborough.
    Rain warnings have now also been issued for South Canterbury and North Otago during Sunday.
    Easterly gales will accompany the heavy rain, with gusts of 120km/h in exposed parts of Northland and Auckland, and 130km/h west of the Kaimai Range.

  6. Large variation in MSLP surrounding currently

    1024 – 993 hPa = 31 hpa

    march 15th 2014 mslp NZ

    That should crank those winds up!!

    Cape Reinga

    at 6:00pm Saturday 15 Mar 2014
    •Temperature: 19°C
    •Wind Speed: 52km/h
    •Wind Direction: N
    •Rainfall (last hr): 0.2mm
    •Humidity: 100%
    •Pressure: 993hPa

    Campbell Island

    at 6:00pm Saturday 15 Mar 2014
    •Temperature: 11°C
    •Wind Speed: 17km/h
    •Wind Direction: E
    •Rainfall (last hr): 0.0mm
    •Humidity: 68%
    •Pressure: 1024hPa

    NZ current weather observations
    http://www.metservice.com/maps-radar/local-observations/local-3-hourly-observations

  7. http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=958517&cid=BP_RSS_TOPSTORIES_5_LusibattersAucklandbeaches_150314

    Emergency services are warning people to stay away from Auckland’s northern beaches where homes are threatened as high tide peaks and ex-Cyclone Lusi causes havoc.

    Lusi hit Northland on Friday night, unleashing 91mm of rain near Whangarei over 27 hours and wind gusts of 139km/h at Cape Reinga.

    A storm surge damaged a restaurant on Paihia’s wharf and a seawall, several boats came ashore, Marsden Point was closed to all shipping and roofing iron lifted on a building in Mangawhai.

    On Saturday, Auckland became the target.

    Localised power outages, surface flooding and landslips occurred across New Zealand’s largest city. Three boats broke from moorings and ferry services were disrupted.

    One ship heading to Ports of Auckland was diverted to shelter off the Coromandel Peninsula.

    Auckland Council Civil Defence controller Clive Manley says weather conditions will deteriorate and coastal erosion will be a problem from 4pm to 10pm on Saturday at Snells Beach, Waiwera, Orewa, Milford, Cheltenham and Whangateau.

    High tide is expected at 8pm.

    ‘It’s best to keep away from beaches,’ he said.

    Civil Defence is preparing to evacuate as many as 50 houses in Milford, Cheltenham, Orewa, Whangateau, and Wairewa, Radio New Zealand reports.

    Power company Vector is providing frequent updates on power outages to thousands of customers across Auckland.

    Wind gusts off 122km/h brought trees down in the city and heavy rainfall fell in northern Auckland, the Waitakere Ranges, Hunua Ranges and south Auckland.

    The storm is expected to pass over the South Island on Sunday.

    Apple growers in Nelson are bracing for damage while residents of low-lying suburbs in Christchurch who have experienced two recent flooding events on top of earthquake damage are preparing for more woe.

    Several events around the country, including Auckland’s Polyfest, have been postponed or cancelled but thousands turned out to hear Tim Finn open the Womad music festival in New Plymouth with a moving ode to Parihaka and some Split Enz classics.

    Lusi killed three people as it passed over Vanuatu.

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