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Tropical storm /TC GILLIAN.. Darwin to the Gulf of Carpentaria 9th March 2014

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ACCESS t + 138 hrs is suggesting a tropical storm possible TC CAT 1 around the 9th March 2014. Cancelled.. to lw pressure trough. LOw moving east toward GOC

with enhanced cross equatorial flow and some in-feed from high pressure in-feed into the southern quadrant from the east coast at 25s across the interior

possible TC darwin 9th march wind fields

The possible TC near the mid north coast is in transition here in this snap as a CAT 1 cylone or intense hybrid low pressure system

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12 comments on “Tropical storm /TC GILLIAN.. Darwin to the Gulf of Carpentaria 9th March 2014

  1. Cyclone watch
    Expected arrival of a CAT 2 near WEIPA on the 10th March..Monday

    TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
    Issued at 5:57 pm EST on Friday 7 March 2014

    7th march 2014 GOC cyclone tracking

    A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
    areas from Kowanyama to Cape Grenville, including the Torres Trait Islands.

    At 4:00 pm EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
    395 kilometres west northwest of Thursday Is and
    475 kilometres northwest of Weipa Ap and
    moving southeast at 15 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

    The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours.

    GALES are expected to develop between Aurukun and Cape Grenville, including the
    Torres Strait Islands, during Sunday morning, possibly extending further south
    to Kowanyama later.

    As the cyclone approaches the coast, a storm tide is expected between Weipa and
    the Torres Strait Islands during Sunday. Large waves may produce minor
    flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by
    this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as
    possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

    Very heavy rainfall that could potentially lead to flash flooding is expected
    to develop over the Peninsula District during Saturday night and Sunday.

    People between Kowanyama and Cape Grenville, including the Torres Strait
    Islands should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone
    threat increases.

    Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm EST:
    .Centre located near…… 9.8 degrees South 138.7 degrees East
    .Location accuracy…….. within 55 kilometres
    .Recent movement………. towards the southeast at 15 kilometres per hour
    .Wind gusts near centre… 85 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
    .Severity category…….. below cyclone intensity
    .Central pressure……… 1003 hectoPascals

  2. 8th March 2014

    The Gulf of Carpentaria low has ben named a CAT 1 cyclone today

    CYCLONE GILLIAN

    Here is the current 500hPa mid layer windstreams for tonight and the 200hPa upper layer wind streams for tonight

    Notice the very strong supporting mid layer with the rotation up to the 500hPa mid layer

    Currently at the mid layer TCGilian and Invest 96p are rotating independently

    A strong upper layer high pressure cell is active in the coral sea with TC Gillian and the INVEST 96 in the coral sea positioned on and under the western flank of the upper high

    500 and 200 hPa winds 8th march 2014 TC Gillian

    IDQ20026
    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
    Queensland
    Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

    TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
    Issued at 7:51 pm EST on Saturday 8 March 2014

    A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Kowanyama to Saibai Island,
    including the Torres Strait Islands.

    A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Gilbert River
    Mouth to Kowanyama and inland to Cape Grenville.

    At 7:00 pm EST

    Tropical Cyclone Gillian, Category 1

    was estimated to be
    265 kilometres west of Thursday Island and
    320 kilometres northwest of Weipa and
    moving east southeast at 12 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

    Tropical cyclone Gillian is forecast to move in a southeast direction over the
    remainder of the weekend while intensifying. The core of the tropical cyclone
    is expected to cross the west coast of Cape York Peninsula between Cape
    Keerweer and Thursday Island during Monday morning or possibly as early as
    Sunday afternoon.

    GALES are expected to develop between Cape Keerweer and Cape Grenville,
    including the Torres Strait Islands, on Sunday morning, possibly extending
    further south to Kowanyama later on Sunday and to Gilbert River Mouth during
    Monday.

    DESTRUCTIVE winds of up to 150 km/hr may develop during Sunday afternoon or
    overnight between Kowanyama and Thursday Island if the cyclone continues to
    intensify.

    Coastal residents between Weipa and the Torres Strait Islands are specifically
    warned of the
    dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast late Sunday or early
    Monday. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal
    tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the
    shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should
    take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to
    follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the
    authorities.

    Very heavy rainfall that could potentially lead to flash flooding is expected
    to develop over the Peninsula District Saturday night and persist into Sunday.

    People between Kowanyama and Sabai Island, including the Torres Strait Islands
    should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats
    and property using available daylight hours.
    A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

  3. ACCESS has this as a small diameter TC.in the days to come
    Centred in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria on Tuesday 11th March with some intensification CAT 2
    Wednesday and thursday has travelled south west to be inland North NT and stalling over land as a tropical low/CAT 1
    Thursday /Friday shifting east to be in the west GOC as a tropical low/CAT 1

    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=gradient&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

  4. As readers would know. I Follow the ACCESS model. I do this as l like to follow windstream patterns anmd the animated interface suits me
    As a consequence of this l get to inadvertly observe its accuracy

    Here is the results of the ACCESS G forecast for this thread started at t + 138hrs

    I snapped tonights wind streams for the results
    OI am actually pleased with its performance
    It has both lows about a CAT 1 status as predicted and the monsoon trough position looks correct. Even the position of themed latitude trough in WA is on time

    Notice a low has formed at the end of the long wave trough off WA coast
    and the Pacific islands low is seen as well albeit is bigger curently than the initial forecast
    Reckon l will give ACCESS g 8/10 for this forecast

    SPOT THE DIFFERENCE

    Acces T=138hrs forecast 9th march 2014ACCESS forecast 9th March 2014

  5. 14th March and Gillian still on active watch

    An article by Cyclone warning on north-east coast of Arnhem Land as storm brews in Gulf of Carpentaria
    Friday March 14, 2014 – 15:37 EDT
    The weather bureau says a tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria is expected to intensify into a cyclone tomorrow morning.

    Ex-tropical cyclone Gillian is a slow moving system that is predicted to move on a north to north-west track.

    Forecaster Sally Cutter says the cyclone should reform just as it hits the coast.

    A cyclone watch remains current for coastal areas from Maningrida to Elcho Island.

    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/cyclone-warning-on-north-east-coast-of-arnhem-land-as-storm-brews-in-gulf-of-carpentaria/27151

  6. ACCESS G indicating GILLIAN will traverse west across the monsoon trough this coming week to be at 117E 8s well west of Darwin on Thursday 20th march 2014
    t+162 hrs forecast
    Note the cross equatorial flow is not evident over the Australian region
    Very large high pressure belt is extending way up in to the tropics and the monsoon
    trough has moved out of sight

    ExGillain is curently in the GOC . I have shown the ACCESS tracking for the ex gillian low that may intensify soon temporarily

    monsoon trough 20th march 2014 Australia

  7. TC Gillian is still active..and has shifted west in to the North eastern Indian ocean
    I started this thread on the 4th of march and now its the 22nd March 2014
    So Gillian has done well to remain active
    Thanks to ‘storm cruiser’from WZ forum thread for posting this awesome animated cyclone tracker.
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1250431/Re_Tropical_Cyclone_Gillian_GO#Post1250431

    Here is TC Gillians expected tracking in the coming days

    tc gillian animated tracking
    ———————————
    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

    TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
    Issued at 2:48 pm WST on Saturday 22 March 2014

    A Cyclone WARNING is current for Tropical Cyclone Gillian for Christmas Island.

    At 1:00 pm CXT (2:00 pm WST) Tropical Cyclone Gillian, was estimated to be
    75 kilometres west of Christmas Island and
    moving west southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.

    Tropical Cyclone Gillian passed to the north of Christmas Island this morning,
    and is now moving steadily away to the west and southwest. Squally winds have
    continued in the wake of the system, and wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour
    may still occur over the next few hours.

    More heavy rainfall is likely on Christmas Island this afternoon, however
    conditions should begin to ease later today and overnight.

    Details of Tropical Cyclone Gillian at 1:00 pm CXT (2:00 pm WST):
    .Centre located near…… 10.4 degrees South 105.0 degrees East
    .Location accuracy…….. within 55 kilometres
    .Recent movement………. towards the west southwest at 11 kilometres per hour
    .Wind gusts near centre… 130 kilometres per hour and intensifying

    .Severity category…….. 2
    .Central pressure……… 987 hectoPascals

    The Christmas Island Emergency Management Committee advises that Christmas
    Island remains on Red Alert.

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