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HADI …TROPICAL STORM or CAT 1 cyclone forecast to approach Far Nth Qld coast March 2014

ACCESS has the current Coral sea low (157E 11s) tracking south west toward the Far nth Queensland coast. To make landfall as a marginal CAT 1 or strong tropical storm at about 17S on the coast when l looked yesterday
Close to Cairns. 5th march
Tonights forecast has the same day, wed the 5th March but has shifted the TS northward at 13S
13S is about the Cape York Penninsula

coral sea low landfall 28th feb 2014

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19 comments on “HADI …TROPICAL STORM or CAT 1 cyclone forecast to approach Far Nth Qld coast March 2014

  1. ACCESS has moved landfall on a few days. Now making landfall on the 7th march and looks to be convincingly a CAT 1 , with all 4 quadrants at 34 to 48knots at the 1km altitude wind layer. MSLP 995hpa

    ACCESS +150 hrs forecast
    Some nice rain for the coast between 10s and 20s of the far Nth coast on Friday the 7th March
    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=gradient&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

  2. ACCESS G has changed from a far nth QLD tracking to a more southerly transition to be off the mid to Nth eastern Australian coastline by Saturday 8th march
    at 148E 17s. Close to cairns

    and Sunday 152 E 18S .. of the mid coast and weakened with land interaction

    From what l have read from followers of other models is that there is no model consensus and still a broad range of solutions exists..

    This low is taking its time.. Keep an open mind here

    —————————————————————-

    I have included todays 200hPa wind streams tonight as l am interested in following the upper air evolution of this ‘mischievous low’

    I believe an upper high is important for good upper outflow of a TC
    This image shows a large upper high is resident in the coral sea currently

    3rd march 2014 200hPa wind streams over Australia

  3. The WATL combined model rain forecast shows the Tropical low just off shore giving parts ofthe eastern coastline some decent rain regardless
    This snap is for the 8th-11th March 2014

    tropicsl low East qld coast 8th-11th march 2014 rainfall forecast

  4. 4 eddies across the screen tonight along the monsoon trough. My how interesting. A range of possibilities here..
    Which lows will combine ?
    THe stronger infeeds should win you would think.

    Maybe 153E 10s combines with 145E 11s?
    ACCESS has them combining on Saturday the 8th as the 153E curves under 145E and they consolidate into a CAT 1 at co-ordinates 148E 17s late saturday

    Maybe 130E 11s combines with 145E 11s?
    ACCESS has the 130E becoming elongated and looks to reform at 113E 11S with some symmetry to the North west of WA later in the week as a weak low

    No wonder NRL have problems with INVEST names. THese lows form dissolve and reform ,duo and triplet complexes emerge

    An elastic simulation of bubbling lows makes classification difficult

    monsoon trough 5th march 2014 Australia

  5. NRL have an INVEST for this potential TC. It is not discernible on their satellite image
    Not sure how they nail that position
    I have marked the centre of the low with a green star as per ACCESS R 1km gradient wind streams
    The center has not as much convection as the banding l would think surrounding the low produces the most convective activity

    5th march invest 96p coral sea NRL

  6. Thanks for the uplifting comments ‘shady’. Have a nice day
    I chose the term crikey because it is found in the dictionary and free to use by anyone . I didn’t know Sir Irwin had a copyright on the exclamation ‘crikey’
    The urban dictionary says steve made the term famous, however that’s a lot of ‘croc’
    as being English born the term is widely used in cockney pubs
    If you came here to piss me off. You did..
    Crikey is also a name for a news corporation
    Now l do expect to hear from them regarding my forum member name. but somehow l don’t think they care

    Quite amazed you care about such a triviality actually.

    How about some great info’ about our upcoming cyclone in the coral sea

    Here is the 500hPa windstreams tonight 6th March 2014

    Note the low is well established up in the mid layer 500 hpa and so all steam ahead and game on.

    and there are another 2 mid level eddies on the trough well worth watching.

    6th march 2014 500hpa layer australia

    source
    500hPa layer
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=500hPa&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

  7. is there anything stopping it from doing a loop and coming back towards the coast??
    PAST HISTORICAL TRACKS
    http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/
    indicate TC tracks that loop and curve …so this is not impossible
    However
    From what l can see at the 500hPa mid layer of the atmosphere on tonights ACCESS map, shows the INVEST 96p ‘s circulation extends to the midlayer. and of interest is that mid layer high on its eastern flank tonight that is preventing an eastern move currently and importantly giving the Invest 96 a nice spin on its eastward flank
    see map below
    ACCESS forecast suggests this mid layer equatorial high will enlarge toward the south and push the TC on to the coast as we expect on Monday
    THe TC then falls victim to a strong mid layer longwave trough by Monday night and into Tuesday a massive area of low pressure troughing in both the Tasman and coralsea next Tuesday

    However it would be fun to watch the synoptics of a recurving TC?
    but l doubt it will be this one?

    Here is tonights midlayer 500ha windstreams

  8. CYCLONE WATCH

    TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
    Issued at 10:53 am EST on Friday 7 March 2014

    A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal and
    island communities from Cairns to Mackay.

    At 10:00 am EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
    560 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and
    630 kilometres northeast of Townsville and
    moving west southwest at 34 kilometres per hour.

    The tropical low is expected to move in a west-southwest direction today before
    adopting a south-southwest track during Saturday. The tropical low is expected
    to intensify into the weekend and it is anticipated it will form into a
    tropical cyclone on Sunday.

    GALES may develop about coastal and island communities between Cairns and
    Mackay during Sunday.

    Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is possible about coastal and
    nearby adjacent inland areas between Cooktown and Mackay from late Saturday and
    should persist into Sunday.

    Details of Tropical Low at 10:00 am EST:
    .Centre located near…… 14.9 degrees South 150.6 degrees East
    .Location accuracy…….. within 130 kilometres
    .Recent movement………. towards the west southwest at 34 kilometres per hour
    .Wind gusts near centre… 85 kilometres per hour
    .Severity category…….. below cyclone intensity
    .Central pressure……… 1003 hectoPascals
    ————————————————-
    FLOOD WARNING FOR COASTAL RIVERS AND ADJACENT INLAND STREAMS BETWEEN CAIRNS AND MACKAY

    Issued at 12:05 pm EST on Friday 7 March 2014

    by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane.

    Issue Number: 1

    Heavy rainfall associated with a developing tropical low in the Coral Sea is expected to develop from late Saturday along the coastal and adjacent inland rivers and streams between Cairns and Mackay. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 100-200mm are expected from overnight Saturday along the North Tropical Coast, and for the following few days as the system progresses further south towards the Central Coast areas.

    A Tropical Cyclone Watch is current for areas between Cairns and Mackay.

    Catchments at risk include the Barron, Mulgrave-Russell, Tully, Murray, Herbert, Ross, Bohle, Haughton, Lower Burdekin, Don, Proserpine and Pioneer Rivers. River level rises above the minor flood level are likely across the warning area later this weekend and into next week.

  9. ACCESS forecasts this coral sea low to interact with a new low forming near the GOC
    This is the scenario forecast as the coral sea low rotates in a fujiwarra dance under the GOC low
    Here is a snap of INVEST 96 coral sea low likely TC 1 landing south of cairns and the INVEST 97 GOC low crossing the far nth peninsula
    What a grand picture of this duo pair interacting can’t wait to se the real time snaps of that!!

    twin lows on the m,onson trough qld 9th march 2014

  10. TRACK MAP
    Short notice change in track.

    No landfall.. and a return to the North east in the coming days
    source: BOM
    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
    INVEST 96p track map 9th march2014

    ACCESS has some intensification for the next 48 hrs as seen confirming on the sat’pic’ with increased convection flaring. Actually looks better than TC Gillian on the satellite image tonight
    BOM report suggests likely CAT 1 tomorrow ( sunday 10th march 2014)

    weather zone satellie image 9th march 2014

    source
    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite/

  11. TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
    Issued at 4:56 am EST on Monday 10 March 2014
    A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal areas from Ayr to St Lawrence.

    At 4:00 am EST

    Tropical Cyclone HADI, Category 1

    was estimated to be
    270 kilometres northeast of Hamilton Island and 370 kilometres east northeast
    of Ayr and moving southeast at 13 kilometres per hour away from the coast.

    TROPICAL CYCLONE Hadi, CATEGORY 1, has developed over the past 6 hours and is
    forecast to slowly strengthen further over the next 12 to 24 hours. The cyclone
    is currently moving in a southeast direction and should develop a northeasterly
    track during the day today. It is likely the cyclone will remain well offshore
    of the coast.

    GALES are likely to continue about central coast and island communities between
    Ayr and St Lawrence this morning, but are expected to ease this afternoon as
    Tropical Cyclone Hadi moves further away from the Queensland coast.

    Heavy rain has now eased and is no longer expected to affect the Queensland
    east coast.

    Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore between Ayr and St
    Lawrence. Tides will also be higher than normal. People living in areas likely
    to be affected should take measures to protect their property as much as
    possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

    Details of Tropical Cyclone Hadi at 4:00 am EST:
    .Centre located near…… 18.7 degrees South 150.8 degrees East
    .Location accuracy…….. within 55 kilometres
    .Recent movement………. towards the southeast at 13 kilometres per hour
    .Wind gusts near centre… 120 kilometres per hour
    .Severity category…….. 1
    .Central pressure………

    991 hectoPascals

  12. Here is snap of tonights 1kmwind streams showing TC Gilian ,Cat 1 Hadi Cat 1and Luci cat 2 and low to the N/west of WA sharing infeed wind streams
    They ALL sem to have a fair slice of the pie here

    10th March 2014

    10th March 2014 gillian hadi and lusi

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