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Australian Autumn_ Winter 2014

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autumn picture by Michael
source
http://chockstone.smugmug.com/photos/

Victoria and Tasmania has had its first cold spell 19th Feb 2014 as we approach autumn in 2 weeks
it is not unusual to see the first glimpses of autumn in the last weeks of Feb. and a mixture of warm and cold in March

Ballarat made a cold minimum of 7.2 deg C last night 20th feb 2014
A tight rotating low pressure cell with some nice input from the Antartic air provided some low temperatures
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV60801/IDV60801.94852.shtml

Mt Buller had 26mm of rain but temps fell to 0.1 deg c during the night after the rain
Max temp around 4.8 deg c today

No snow evident on the mt buller webcams
http://www.mtbuller.com.au/Summer/Mountain2/Webcams

THe low pressure cell doesn’t look as though it was attached to the westerly belt. THe cold loks as though it came from the southern ocean . The Antarctic has record sea ice extent, so plenty of cold near the polar region.
Wondering if this year that cold will wander across the Australian mainland?

mslp 20th feb 2014
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/indian_ocean.shtml

THis Post will be ongoing until spring 2014
It will contain information and observations from all Australian states

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148 comments on “Australian Autumn_ Winter 2014

  1. ‘SURLY BOND’ has a post reporting on the Manilla NSW weather fro July 2014
    His report his here
    http://climatebysurly.com/2014/08/02/dry-july-2014/

    Extract
    “Average temperatures were normal, but the rainfall was low and the humidity (Dew Point) was very low.
    The total rainfall of 11.4 mm is in the 15th percentile. Taking rainfall totals for more than one month, the 4-month total of 83 mm is now a serious shortage (6th percentile). There are also serious shortages in the totals for 12 months (6th percentile), 15 months (8th percentile), and 18 months (9th percentile),”
    source
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1272289/Re_July_2014_Rain_other_stats_#Post1272289

  2. ACCESS forecasting deep and large high pressure especially 12th August 2014 when a central pressure of 1042hpa is forecast in the Bight

    severe frosts and some continuing cold night for the SOUTHEAST
    and lots of sunny days

    12th August 2014 1042 hpa forecast by ACCESS

  3. Record August warmth bathes WA’s Gascoyne

    Source Weatherzone Sun 10 Aug 2014

    Parts of Western Australia’s Gascoyne are currently amidst their warmest August spell on record, particularly in coastal locations. A duo of slow-moving high pressure systems over the Bight have generated clear skies over the region, while filtering in very warm northeasterly winds sourced from Australia’s north. This has led to temperatures rising well above average for this time of year, more typical of mid-to-late spring than late winter. The first nine days of August at Carnarvon have averaged 28.3 degrees, the warmest nine day spell the town has seen on record for the month. Including yesterday, the town is also expected to exceed 28 degrees for seven days consecutively, also a record for August. The long-term August average is 23 degrees. Denham is on track to see five consecutive days of 27 degree heat, only the second time this has happened in the last 25 years in August. The unseasonably warm weather is set to linger until at least next weekend, meaning halfway through the month several locations will be well above their monthly averages. Several places could break monthly August records, unless the second half of the month is significantly cooler. – Weatherzone © Weatherzone 2014

    http://www.skyweather.com.au/news/117350

  4. 9th August 2014
    LOW LEVEL SNOW and cold front Tasmania
    http://www.skyweather.com.au/news/117358

    FOG ..SYDNEY 9th August 2014
    “Visibility at Camden Airport and Prospect Dam was reduced to less than 50 metres while other western hubs including Richmond RAAF, Bankstown Airport and Canterbury Racecourse were restricted to just 100 metres.”
    http://www.skyweather.com.au/news/116648

    FOG PERTH 8th August 2014
    ” At 6am on Friday morning visibility dropped below 50 metres at Jandakot Airport. The thick fog hung around with visibility getting as low as 200 metres at Jandakot and Pearce RAAF and as low as 150 metres at Perth Airport.”
    http://www.skyweather.com.au/news/116028

    CANBERRA ‘s COLDEST consecutive mornings in 43 years

    Source Weatherzone Fri 08 Aug 2014

    “Clear skies and still winds have allowed the mercury to fall to a 43 year low in the nation’s capital.
    A stubborn, slow moving high pressure system has given rise to a prolonged spell of cold mornings about southern parts of NSW. Inland parts of the state in particular, far removed from moderating sea breezes have endured brutally cold mornings leading to widespread frosts on multiple occasions.
    In the past seven days, Canberra has seen an average minimum temperature of -5.8 degrees, the coldest spell since 1971.
    Nearby, Cooma also felt their coolest three night spell since 2011 with an average minimum of -9.6 degrees. This is also the fourth coolest three night spell since records started in 1974.”
    http://www.skyweather.com.au/news/116027

  5. KEN KATO giving a heads up for a decent rain event for QLD and parts of NSW
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1272603#Post1272603

    Event commences Thursday night 15th August 2014 and deepens into the weekend and expanding toward the east coast .. Farmers should be joyful!

    15th August 2014 rain event qld

    The tropical dip in the Indian ocean off the WA coast ( above) should also bring in moisture to combine with a cold front of the WA coast

    At 156hrs
    ACCESS shows a double tropical dip in the Isobars
    16th august double tropical dip

  6. 10th August 2014
    The 544 cold thickness line is over VIC today and 532 for Tasmania

    during this week.. 11th -14th August the cold pool under this deep high extends over NSW and up over the QLD border latitude. Should be some cold anomalies for the south east this week
    532 thickness North east of Adelaide on the 12th ..( Flinders ranges l think)
    Tuesday the 12th is the pick of the week with a bubble of 532 over N/east of Adelaide ( Flinders ranges perhaps )
    and a broad swathe of 536 thickness over south east SA, S/west NSW, western VIC on the 12th also ..

    cold pool 12th aug 2014
    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-thick&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

  7. 16th August 2014

    Snapped this forecast for this amazing surface feature for the 16th August centred in S/west NSW.
    SEVERE WEATHER EVENT !! for large areas of the EAST and south east of Australia

    16th aug 2014 surface tropicaldip

    Very strong in-feed from both the TASMAN AND THE CORAL SEA.
    Of note is the convergence of the warm moist air from the coral with the cooler airstream from the Tasman combining from Brisbane and into the NSW NE ranges.
    This mixed coral /Tasman sea air source combines as an infeed into this intensified low in s/west NSW.
    Also note a colder airstream running on the western flank of this low northward into the QLD interior and is the western flank of the QLD trough
    The gradient on either side of the QLD trough… is warm moist on the east but cold moist on the western side
    Some volatile ingredients here .
    Victoria sees moist stormy cloud arriving from the NE !!
    The 544 thickness line is in the s/west flank of the low
    ———-
    Cold front and wet trough for the S/west of WA
    ————
    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=gradient&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

  8. Continuing from above
    Now here is a nice interesting feature in the mid layer 500 hpa for this event

    A closed low/ eddy begins to form tomorrow (12th August) near Sth SA.
    The eddy stalls and intensifies in the same area over the coming 4-5 days and doesn’t transit eastward until sunday 17th August .
    Underneath is the surface low
    16th aug 2014 500 hpa low
    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=500hPa&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

    ———————————
    200hpa UPPER LAYER
    A bit surprised the mid 500hpaand upper air 200hpa not supporting the surface troughing in the QLD interior for this event .
    Predominantly a westerly zonal flow over the top of the QLD interior troughing. Surprised at the amount of rain forecast for QLD interior really considering the feature is just surface and 1km (gradient). Makes weather watching interesting

    Here is the 200hPa jet pattern for this event.. Pretty ordinary really
    A strong zonal sub tropical jet crosses qld at 30-25s

    THe jet looks more severe over perth here..with a small exit
    region
    16th aug 2014 200 hpa

  9. Port Augusta record minimum record equalled on the 1st Aug 2014 ( since 1958) and convincingly broken the day after on the 2nd Aug’ 2014 by minus 1.4 deg
    It was minus 4.5 at Port Augusta

    port augusat min record 2nd aug 2014
    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=123&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=2014&p_c=-66339191&p_stn_num=018201
    ——————–

    “The South Australian minimum record is -8.2 @ Yongala, 20/7/1976”

    comment by MAXRECORD’
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1272821/1214

    ‘BlairTrewin’

    “The -6.0 at Yunta this morning looks to have equalled the state record for August

    (previously at Yongala on 14/8/1976). “

  10. Incredible deep high pressure over southern SA today
    13th August 2014

    Adelaide 1037.6hpa at 11.00am ( max temp was 3 deg c below the mean today)

    Cape Borda in SA ..1039 hpa 11am
    Kingscote 1039.2 hpa 10.30am
    Keith 1039 hPa at 9.00am
    Pallamana 1038.8 hpa at 10.00am
    Cummins aero 1038.5 hPa 9.30am
    Port Lincoln 1038.8hPa
    http://www.bom.gov.au/sa/observations/saall.shtml?ref=hdr

    comment from WZforum
    “New high pressure record for the year today, reached 1037.7 hPa at 10.35am! ”
    by kgb007′
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1272923/Re_South_Australian_and_Adelai#Post1272923

  11. 14th AUG 2014
    The surface low is seen to start wrapping near the NE of SA. The cloud should intensify right along the east and southeast as the low and trough as discussed above intensifies over the next 4days

    14th Aug 2014 satpic'

    THUNDERSTORMS embedded in wrap around
    14th aug 2014
    Someone asked in the Weatherzone forum if this wet is uncommon
    and thanks to KEN KATO …reponds
    “I can’t recall off the top of my head but it’s definitely been awhile. The one Aug event I always remember is the 2007 ECL which dumped 772 mm in 24hrs at Coops Corner north of Brisbane and caused severe flooding in that region.”

    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1273003/2

  12. 18th aug 2014

    Parramatta has broken its banks
    18th aug 2014

    http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/weather-forecast-for-regional-nsw-and-victoria-heavy-rain-high-winds/story-e6frflp0-1227027685130

    Buses are replacing ferries in #parramatta today after the weir overflowed.
    parramatta weir flooding

    Sydney weather: rain and wind lash city as roads closed, 700 calls for emergency help

    http://www.theherald.com.au/story/2495679/sydney-weather-rain-and-wind-lash-city-as-roads-closed-700-calls-for-emergency-help/
    “The NSW State Emergency Service said it had responded to more than 700 calls for help by 4pm on Monday with more than 300 volunteers out in the field.
    Gale-force winds reached up to 120km/h on Monday morning.

    In the Sydney area the highest recorded wind gusts have been around Wattamolla in the Royal National Park, so we’ve got wind gusts at 120km/”

  13. Warwick Hughes has posted data on a number of long running cold records..

    Renmark Aero has coldest ever 7 day run of August minimum temperatures – that is in eastern South Australia
    http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=3196

    Canberra Airport has coldest ever 14 day run of August minimum temperatures
    quote”I think this is a record cold run of 14 cold minimums in August – since 1939 that is. The next coldest 14 day spell I found was -4.25°C from 4th to 17th August 1994.”

    http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=3190

    HERE is my contribution showing percentage area below the 3rd percentile for max temp’in Australia
    aug 2014 under 3rd percentle max temps for OZ

  14. Top Enders dig out the long johns
    Brett Dutschke, Tuesday August 19, 2014 – 18:05 EST

    “August is known as a month of warming for those in the Northern Territory Top End but this year the region has been hit by a late cold snap, causing residents to dig out the long johns.

    For the past two nights Darwin has cooled to 15.3 degrees and 15.0 degrees, more than five degrees colder than the August average. This is not only the city’s coldest pair of nights in two years but also its coldest pair of nights this late in the season in 10 years. On the 21st and 22nd of August in 2004 Darwin cooled to 14.7 and 14.7 degrees respectively.

    And it has been much colder inland.

    Less than 50km inland of Darwin, Middle Point chilled to 7.9 degrees last night and 7.6 degrees the night before, seven degrees below average. This is its coldest pair of nights in two years and coldest pair of nights this late in the season in at least 14 years.

    Elsewhere during the last few nights, Delamere, Dum In Mirrie and Cape Fourcroy have all recorded their lowest August temperatures in at least 15 years….”
    source
    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/top-enders-dig-out-the-long-johns/123602

  15. ACCESS G showing another rain event likely for the east coast as a tropical dip in surface isobars assists in drawing moisture in to an emerging low pressure cell near the Qld/ NSW border coast
    Commencing ~

    Monday 25th AUG 2014

    25th Aug 2014 rain event east coast OZ

  16. This upcoming evnt commencing 25th aug is lookingmore interesztingevery time l have a look at the wind stream patterns at all layers.
    I might do an overlay tomorrow night . This could be a severe weather event foe the south east qld and NE/NSW.. Spring storms and rain are springing up

    25th aug 2014 500hpa closed low

  17. 21st Aug 2014
    Comments from ‘seabreeze’ from a thread dedicted totheis east coast event this coming week
    I”nteresting times ahead…
    August really is one of those “famine or feast” kind of months. The biggest flood on record in this valley occurred during the days around 26-28th August in 1949.”
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1273916/Re_SE_QLD_NE_NSW_Upper_troughs#Post1273916
    ——————-
    One of ‘KEN Kato’s’ scripts from the same thread
    rain last week aug 2014s eastqld

  18. ACCESS and WATL combined model has ramped up this event. Giving potentially 300mm to a broad coast area in south east QLD and NE NSW

    Dangerous event here,. Life threatening severe weather.. Low lying areas and flood prone areas prepare..

  19. ACCESS forecast for the 27th AUG 2014 T + 150 hrs

    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml

    Some notes from the animation forecast
    “A deep high centring between east tassie’ and west sth Island NZ stall s from today for at leats the next 6 days ( seems unrealistic ? ) It also remains strong hoverin g betwen 1037 -1041 hpa
    Friday 4pm the High centred well southwest of South island ofNZis 1039hPa at 4pm
    Double yoker high down south on sunday creates some inland NSW /VIC troughing
    Monday the 25th the off shore tropical dip troughing deepens off shore of south east QLD coast
    Tuesday the 26th the rain becomes heavier from mid NSWcoast to Brisbane
    Closed low by Tuesday evening just of Brisbane gives the Gold coast and NE /NSWcoast the heavy intense rain from the southern flank of this intensifying low
    Tuesday night lashings of wind on to the Gold coast and surrounds as the southern flank of the low intensifies. LOw centred overvgold coast at 1003 hpa
    Continues withheavy rain and wind in to Wednesday and extends to the NE NSW coast. COPIOUS amountsof coral sea moisture streaming into the southernflank of the low on wednseday T +156 hrs”

  20. Here you can se the spiteful southern flank of this emerging ECL. Currently the Gold coast cop it. This snap show the 4pm forecast at t +126 hrs

    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=gradient&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View
    ————————-
    I was going to do an overlay of the surface mid and upper layer wind streams but they look spectacular on their own.
    So just adding to the above. Here is the mid layer 500 hPa

    26th Aug 2014 mid layer 500 hpa trough

    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=500hPa&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View
    ————————–

    200 hpa upper trough off set to the west of the surface troughing and ECL

  21. ACCESS has an ECL forming he coming days. A surface low eddy was seen on the sat pic’today off the mid coast of QLD
    23rd aug 2014sat pic of ECLgenesis
    Here is a snap of the peak of this ECL as forecast by ACCESS for Wednesday 27th Aug 2014 so far

  22. Tuesday 26th AUG 2014
    ACCESS forecast . indicating a mid layer low west and over the NE NSW and Agold coast tomorrow. from 4pm into the early hours of Wednesday . A good weather watch for rain and maybe storms?
    Even though ACCESS has moved the ECL off shore in the latest update . THe feature to watch tomorrow appears to be the complex low mid layer currently over NSW . This midlayer complex low feature is progged to move north tomorrow centring on the QLD /NSW border inland tomorrow by 1pm.
    Note the triple complex below with 2 more eddies of shore of NSW

    Overlaying the mid layer low complex with the position of the ECL tomorrow gives this below

    Note that the ECL southern flank FEEDS INTO /UNDER this mid layer feature on land. This should provide a moisture in-feed .

    Tomorrow weather watch looks fascinating!! and into Wednesday as the mid layer low shifts east. I think it may be fortunate that the ECL stays off shore when the mid and surface layers overlay.. at this stage
    Nice storms with this midlayer complex in NSW currently

    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=500hPa&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

  23. 27th Aug 2014
    the NE coast of NSW had the most activity from this event yesterday
    Thanks to ‘seabreeze’ from WZ forum for reporting these total
    “100mm+ falls reported so far on BOM in the 24 hours to 9am this morning:
    182mm – Turners Flat
    172mm – Comboyne Public School
    141mm – Mount Seaview
    136mm – Sawtell
    131mm – Boonanghi
    122mm – Comboyne (Thone River)
    119mm – Spicketts Creek (Noonannie)
    119mm – Utungun (Taylors Arm)
    115mm – Kempsey Airport AWS
    115mm – Kempsey (Wide Street)
    110mm – Toormina
    109mm – Moparrabah
    108mm – Wittitrin
    106mm – Aldavilla
    “http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1274640/11

  24. Some cold records in this report

    SA’s warm farewell to frosty August

    Brett Dutschke, Wednesday August 27, 2014 – 17:40 EST

    South Australia is ending August with a few warmer nights and days but this month will still go down as the frostiest on record for most of the state.

    Virtually all of the state has had more than the normal number of frosts this month. The West Coast, Flinders, Mid North and Barossa have been hit hardest with five-to-ten more frosts than in a typical August.

    Kyancutta has got as cold as zero degrees or lower on 13 mornings this month, 10 more than the long-tern norm and three more than the previous record, set in 1978. Kyancutta’s records go back 83 years.

    Ceduna has hit zero or below 10 times, nine more than normal and three more than the previous record, set in 1969. Ceduna’s records go back 73 years.

    Hawker, Yongala, Rosedale and Keith have all had more frosts this month than in any August in the last 30 years.

    We have been under the direct influence of a high pressure system for almost all of the month due to the position of the jetstream. Cold fronts and low pressure systems which keep frost away by bringing wind, cloud and rain, have been too far east. As a result, it has turned out to also be a dry month across the south and west of the state.

    Between now and the start of spring a high pressure system will shift east, allowing winds to turn more northerly, drawing warmer air from the north of the country, effectively eliminating frost by the weekend. Only the odd patch of light frost is likely on Thursday and Friday mornings.

    These warmer northerly winds are at least making days reach as much as five-to-eight degrees above average with many places on target to experience their warmest August week in seven years. Adelaide should average a maximum of about 22 degrees.

    This warm spell will not spell the end of the cold. Spring is usually quite changeable and this one is looking no different.

    Unfortunately for some grain crops, further frost damage is a risk during the first week of spring due to the likelihood of two cold fronts then two high pressure systems forming in their wake.

    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/sas-warm-farewell-to-frosty-august/128986

    © Weatherzone 2014

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