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WET SIGNAL for parts of Australia..2014

I have started this post to report on widespread rain events in various states of Australia
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(image source:http://images2.layoutsparks.com/1/80651/soak-wet-rain-umbrella.jpg)
I will use the Bureau of meteorology WATL rain forecasting model which combines a number of models in its output

WATL RAIN FORECAST…. CURRENT

source link
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
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I will add information in the comments section. Please feel free to add or comment
The comments section is at the bottom of the screen. If it is not visible , click on the post heading to load the comments
cheers

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22 comments on “WET SIGNAL for parts of Australia..2014

  1. EX tropical low from North west WA curves south east across the southern mainland
    This incursion of moisture is boosted by ex TC Fletcher remnants incorporating into the same troughing
    This snap is the expected rainfall for the next 4 days. The spatial pattern shows the path of the ex tropical system clearly here
    The remnants are likely to make it across to the south east quadrant of OZ including SA, VIC, NSW and parts of QLD

    rain forecast 11th-14th feb 2014

  2. ACCESS G suggesting a tropical low born near the Gulf of Carpentaria curently 16th feb 2014 , will intensify but move south down into the central drought stricken plains of interior Queensland.. ACCESS has rainfall all of this week

    20th feb 2014 ACCESS rain forecast qld
    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml

    The remnants of this GOC low seem to stall in the QLD interior all week
    Even by the 22nd the low remnants are still active in Queensland
    Just what the doctor ordered
    Funny watching our PM getting a drenching whilst visiting today
    Good chance this rain event will break this drought in QLD

    Rain forecast for the next 7 days from WATL/PME multi model consensus

    rain for qld 16th -23rd feb 2013

  3. One day later the WATL model still giving central QLD some drought breaking rain

    some long wave troughing with a N/west tropical infeed from the GOC low
    This should last until Thursday. Then a strong high shifts the
    low/ moisture further west over toward the southern NT by the Friday and the weekend.

    LOOK.. Giving someone in central QLD 300mm
    Just trying to get a handle on what towns are located near that pink blob

    Is that the Longreach area?
    Looks west of the ranges..Roughly Rockhampton latitude

    rain forecat qld 17-24th feb 2014

    source link
    http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

  4. Here is todays rainfall ..17th feb 2014. ( the first day of the 4 day sequence posted above)

    Bladensburg 92mm past 24 hrs

    17th feb 2014 rain totals australia

    Already good totals from this infeed band
    The trough stalls for the next 4 days pretty much in the same place giving this inland strip some high totals

  5. 18th Feb 2014
    Townsville scored 126mm . Seemed be an area of convergence pushing onshore
    North easterlies from the coral sea converging with input from the Taman high
    Not related to interior troughing
    A few towns in s/east QLD scored 100.mm . Morayfield 106mm.
    There was a weak surface low in the south east corner of qld area last night and an elongated mid level 500hPa low along the qld coast

    18th feb 2013 rainfall totals Australia

    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/index.shtml

  6. Rain totals for the 20th Feb. 2014

    rain totals Australia  20th feb 2014

    east of longreach some 200mm totals.
    Kudos to WATL for clearly predicting the most intense area
    WATL
    http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

    However notice that WATL underestimated Victorian rain totals. However the time frames might not be synchronised

    watl 20th feb 2014

    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood/

    ABC/Weatherzone have completed a report of this rain in the qld interior
    Drought-affected graziers in outback Queensland welcome rain, prepare for floods
    By Chrissy Arthur, Paul Robinson and Fidelis Rego, Thursday February 20, 2014 – 16:09 EDT
    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/drought-affected-graziers-in-outback-queensland-welcome-rain-prepare-for-floods/26923

    Re : comment in article
    “It has come as a shock,” she said.

    “Yesterday on a few of the weather bureau [websites] they were predicting a possible 10 to 25 millimetres for our area.

    I don’t know where they get there forecasts from. Bur WATL( see above posts) clearly saw this coming
    THey need to change there weather forecast page

  7. A year’s rain in a night

    Lydia Burton, Friday February 21, 2014 – 18:27 EDT

    Rain has continued to fall in outback Queensland, with some properties recording more than 250 millimetres in a few hours.

    rain qld 21st feb 2014

    It is the first time in more than 12 months that there has been widespread rain in western Queensland.

    All 20 drought declared regions in western Queensland have received some rainfall over the past week.

    While the rain is not yet drought breaking, it is welcomed by graziers.

    Jane James, from Glencoe station at Jericho, 190 kilometres east of Longreach, received 261 millimetres overnight.

    “Oh it’s fantastic. I mean, we really didn’t need it quite that hard and that fast, but all our dams were totally dry, so it’s just been fantastic.

    “All the dams will be full. Even our house dam was very low, but it’s now overflowing its banks and going into the paddocks,” she said.

    On Wednesday night, properties surrounding the small western Queensland town of Alpha, 55 kilometres east of Jericho, received approximately 200 millimetres.

    Rebecca Comiskey, from Melton, north of Alpha, says her property had been surviving off 220 millimetres for 12 months, then overnight they received 217 millimetres.

    She says she couldn’t be happier to have a water view outside her home.

    In the North, Hughenden has seen the Flinders River start flowing again after two years.

    “We have got some teachers in town that wouldn’t believe us that it does actually run,” said local councillor Shane McCarthy.

    He says rain has been very patchy, with some properties receiving up to 175 millimetres, whilst other places struggled to get 25 millimetres.

    – ABC

    © ABC 2014
    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/a-years-rain-in-a-night/26944

  8. A good report here by A positive February for some parts of QLD
    Guy Dixon,
    Sunday February 23, 2014 – 12:29 EDT
    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/a-positive-february-for-some-parts-of-qld/26949

    my comment
    (Above average rainfall for many parts of the QLD coast.
    The exception being south east qld which is well below average)

    extract from Guys report

    “A high pressure ridge has been steering moist tropical winds towards the coast bringing consistently heavy showers and thunderstorms to eastern QLD. These heavy coastal showers have contributed to above average rainfall for the month of February after a slow start to the wet season.

    Several towns along the northern Tropical coast have already received well over their rainfall quota with Cardwell seeing 654mm so far this month when its February average is just 461mm. This puts Cardwell at 142% of its February rainfall with the month not yet over.

    Similarly, Innisfail and South Johnstone have seen 131% and 126% respectively. Innisfail has received 763mm over 17 rainy days, whereas the average is just 583mm over 17 rainy days.

    Just next door, South Johnstone has clocked up 747mm over its February average of 591mm thanks to a few heavy days of rain including Monday 3rd which saw a 24 hour total of 230mm.”

  9. RAIN FOR NSW 28th FEB and 1st March 2014

    WATL rain forecast 28th feb 2014

    A stalling trough with some N/west infeed from the Northern Territory low/monsoon trough, flows through outback west qld and infeeds into a southern trough across mainly central NSW and the mid coast of NSW
    Not sure the main reason for the mid coast NSW rain ( coffs harbour , port Macquarie)
    ACCESS has that rain band in an exit region of a 200 hPa sub- tropical jet stream

    28th feb 2014 jetstream australia

    Here is the current satellite picture before this events starts
    This is 26th feb 2014.. 2 days before the NSW event
    26th feb 2014 sat pic Australia

  10. Dajarra, 150km south of Mt Isa is isolated after rivers and streams rose quickly from big rainfall overnight….February 28, 2014

    Dajarra flooding feb 2014
    Residents wade through flooded Matheson Street in Dajarra

    REPORT ABC
    Lydia Burton, Friday February 28, 2014 – 17:42 EDT

    “From some unofficial gauges around the area, there are reports of upwards of 150 millimetres in some areas and obviously that has made the local creeks rise very quickly, and obviously through Carbine Creek which is very close to the town centre.”

    “Water came up into some of the homes, most of the homes in Dajarra are only low-set. Some people stayed at the local hotel and others stayed with friends and family” he says.

    Stradbroke station surrounds Dajarra and is now being referred to as ‘Stradbroke Island’.

    Manager David Weston says they received 83 millimetres overnight and it’s the first rain of it’s kind in over 2 years.

    “The Wills River is in the backyard of the house, its very good to see it.”

  11. Its been a long time between widespread drinks
    It is now late Nove 2014 and some signs of a wet pattern emerging as high pressure cells weaken and the tropical latitude isobars dip south
    A stalling trough over the mainland this week 29th Nov -2014 with a cut off tropical low transitioning across the mainland..

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