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Could this be TC DYLAN? for QUEENSLAND?

ACCESS G looking fabulous for a solid TC approaching the QLD coast next Tuesday the 28th Jan 2014
On this snap of forecast +156hrs
3-4 infeed bands for the northern flank and a nice strong high providing the southern infeed and preventing the TC from shifting south east

28th jan 2013 TC qld

source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=gradient&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

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20 comments on “Could this be TC DYLAN? for QUEENSLAND?

  1. ACCESS continues its assurance of a TC landfall. THe current prognososis suggests its origins at about 160E and 12 S . An INVEST is current for this low
    The TC formation starts around this sunday the 26th jan 2014 as it moves south west

    Should be a high probability and alert about then
    A large high pressure cell keeps its migration west well northward and prevents veering south east. Could be a borderline CAT 1 / or strong tropical storm at this stage
    by Monday . Landfall with a large low power eye is due about 20S on the Australian east coast (Mackay vicinity)on WEDNESDAY the 29th Jan 2014
    There is a suggestion the low will push in strongly into the QLD interior to provide some welcome rain for many

    29th jan 2014 posible TCdylan in qld

  2. UPDATE
    This is ACCESS forecast for this low some 6 days away on the 1st feb 2014. It remains on the monsoon trough and has not commenced transition

    It has continued cross equatorial flow and a stalled high in the Tasman centred west of NZ continues to in-feed the southern flank of this low
    Not sure if this will MAKE cat 1 yet. Not enough time in the coral sea to crank it up.
    Landfall tempers the development. However it still circulates south of the gulf of Carpentaria a week away on the 1st Feb. 2014

    1st feb 2014 lowes on monsoon trough

    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=gradient&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

    Note a new tropical low developing off the N/west coast of WA a week from now

    and note a strong low/cyclone in transition southward in the central pacific

  3. Weatherzone is hosting a forum thread for this low here
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1234486/7
  4. UPDATE

    ACCESS R has now has moved landfall 12 hrs later and is now 5am on Thursday morning AEST

    Looks a possible CAT 1 and has a surface pressure of 989hpa on landfall at latitude 16/17 s close to Cairns vicinity
    High rainfall totals for the southern flank with towns south of Cairns in the firing line
    Like Townsville
    TC/intense tropical storm is forecast to move westward across the interior of nth qld as the week progresses

    30th jan 2014 TS nth qld cairns

    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

  5. Another good water vapour animation of the coral sea
    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/austeast/movies/gmswvbbm/gmswvbbmjava.html

  6. OFFICIAL NAMING of TC DYLAN
    HELLO DYLAN!!

    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

    TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
    Issued at 1:49 pm EST on Thursday 30 January 2014

    A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
    Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including
    Collinsville..

    At 1:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Dylan, Category 1 was estimated to be 235
    kilometres northeast of Townsville and 290 kilometres north of Proserpine and
    moving west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

    Tropical Cyclone Dylan has formed off the north Queensland coast and is
    expected to continue moving in a general southwesterly direction and gradually
    intensifying, before crossing the Queensland coast between Lucinda and
    Proserpine in the early hours of Friday morning.

    The cyclone and a strong ridge of high pressure further south are combining to
    generate GALES at times along much of the east coast between Cardwell and St
    Lawrence. Winds are expected to increase further between Lucinda and St
    Lawrence, particularly about the Central Coast and Whitsundays district, during
    the remainder of today and extending to adjacent inland areas on Friday morning
    with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour possible.

    Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about
    coastal and adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the
    Central Coast and Whitsundays districts during today.

    Coastal residents between Lucinda and St Lawrence, including Townsville are
    specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide
    today and on Friday. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well
    above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas
    close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this
    flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and
    be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised
    to do so by the authorities.

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