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Monsoon trough ….Australia 2013 / 2014

THIS POST is a documentation of the monsoon trough in Australia for 2013/2014.. From November 2013 and in to April 2014
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November 2013

The first signs of some cross equatorial flow from the northern hemisphere tropics across the equator and into the Northern Indian ocean.
The emergence of a monsoon trough line north west of AUSTRALIAN mainland inn the Indian ocean may bode well for an early cyclone development in the n/west of WA.
A tropical low has formed on the eastern boundary of this monsoon trough but is not being curently fed by the north east wind flow currently
A strong low pressure / troughing/ wet signal is current over the Australian mainland on the surface synoptic

monsoon trough nov 2013

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24 comments on “Monsoon trough ….Australia 2013 / 2014

  1. DECEMBER13th Monsoon trough forecast by ACCESS G

    Not very strong currently
    Likely cyclone to emerge in the central Indian ocean around the 13th dec 2013 at 8 deg s

    Some cross equatorial flow in the central pacific and monsoon troughingin the west pacific near new guinea and east of ..

    greater asia wind streams 13th dec 2013

  2. The monsoon trough is clearly evident on the 19th dec 2013 surface wind flows
    Somw large strong highs reaching up to tropical northern poarts and lots of cross equatorial flow providing lots of opportunity for cyclogenesi
    You can see a number of eddys emerging right along that line
    Strong winds reported up far nth qld coastline . Noting they are feeding into the monsoon trough
    Looking absolutely AWESOME
    Have drawn in some 5 eddy’s formin galong the trough currently
    monson trough eddys 19th dec 2013

    Thanks to the’ guys’ on WZforum for the ‘heads up’ re: winds
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1225704/Re_Far_Nth_Queensland_Wet_Seas#Post1225704

  3. ACCESS G suggesting a tropical low to develop northwest of Darwin on Christmas day 2013

    The wind stream forecast for 850hPa suggests the cross-equatrorial flow is excellent right across the north east Indian ocean and the Pacific ocean
    but the high pressure belt looks to weaken and become disorganised around t+102 hrs( 25th Dec 2013)
    An easterly stream of tropical origin across the top end commences the rotation
    Some strengthening highs at southern latitudes are needed to beef up the cyclone development currently

    t102hrs 25th decmonsoon trough

  4. ACCESS G ( t+144hrs)is forecasting a cyclone emerging and developing over Darwin area around the 12th Jan 2014.

    The map below shows the strong cross equatorial flow entering the southern hemisphere and the high pressure cells connecting with the inflow to produce up to 3 cyclones in the SH next week
    One in the central Indian ocean, one close to Darwin in the top end of Australia and one near the islands in the pacific ocean
    The cyclone near Darwin could commence as a CAT 1 by the Jan 12th 2014

    12thjan 2014 cyclogenesis near darwin

    ———————————————————————————————
    The satellite picture looks good today..21st Jan 2014
    Plenty of convection north of Australian mainland and along the monsoon trough
    The remnants of unnamed low still remain in WA
    Lots on convection on both sides of the equator
    21st jan 2014 sat pic

  5. 31st Jan 2014
    The BOM synoptic showing the monsoon trough drops down across the northern quadrant of the Australian mainland in to the first week of February. First time this season for a decent mainland trough
    The trough is actively spawning tropical lows and potential for cyclogenesis
    So far looking to close to land to get any strength to date

    Here is ACCESS g some 162hrs forecast showing 3 tropical lows around the 7th Feb. 2014

    7th feb 2014 3 lows on monsoon trough

  6. ACCESS forecast t + 150 hrs
    Shows a continuing well formed monsoon trough with 3 strong eddies evident in this frame
    Note the large tropical storm in the Coral sea which is heading toward the Australian north east coast on this forecast
    and
    a strong tight tropical storm near the GOC but land centred on the NT
    and
    a smaller eddy forming off the coast of WA at 108E 12 S

    monson 19th feb 2014

  7. ACCESS G has weakened the coral sea low for now . It is still there in the T+150 hr forecast but has weakened in-feeds and sits nearer the equator
    However the main point is the Gulf of Carpentaria low which ACCESS G has looking almost like a CAT 1 on the 21st Feb 2014 Just ..centred on the water it may get a name
    Even if it doesn’t it looks to be potentially and intense low with lots of rain for where ever it goes

    Good size and symmetry here in this snap of 1km winds

    GOC low mid feb 2014

    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=gradient&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

    Last year some of QLD higher rain totals come from tropical lows originating in the GOC and migrating south east down the inland or coast.
    Keep an eye out here.. Hopefully QLD inland drought will be over ..Hopefully

  8. FEB 27th 2014

    .
    ACCESS G is indicating the monsoon trough is still delivering the potential for TS/TC development
    Here is the T +150 hrs forecast indicating a TS forming on a very large elongated trough line in the coral sea/ sth pacific
    and of note is another Tropical storm forming in the GOC.
    All interest will be on further development and tracking of these 2 lows

    Also note the tropical storm developing in the NH.North of the equator. Could be the first TC for the western Pacific

    27th feb 2014 monson trough australia
    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=gradient&tz=AEDT&area=DRSMC&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

  9. March 3rd 2014

    ACCESS G continues to suggest the monsoon trough remains active with cyclogenesis eddies forming along the trough at around latitude 12S

    at T+ 150m hrs
    ACCESS has a CAT 2 on the 3rd March just west of FIJI islands 175E 17S
    FIJI scores the more intense eastern side of the cyclone
    http://www.mapsofworld.com/lat_long/fiji-lat-long.html

    A low forming in the coral sea at 147 E 12S
    A low forming at 117E off the North West WA coast but is not formed from cross equatorial flow and is just a tropical low
    A low forming in the North east Indian ocean at 93E

    3rd march 2014 monson trough australia

    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=gradient&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

  10. ACCESS suggesting the monsoon trough is contracting and cross equatorial in-feed is nearly non evident on the t+162 hr forecast
    MARCH 14 th 2014

    A large belt of high pressure is replacing the trough up to 8s this week

    Already the ‘sat pic’ of the

    14th March 2014

    is showing a strong reduction of cloud and convection across the Northern equatorial of Australia

    14th March 2014 satellie picture

    picture : weatherzone

  11. ACCESS G is contracting the monsoon trough this week to 8s
    t+162 hrs

    A new tropical low possibly forming at 162E 8s on this forecast for next week . A new invest for the coral emerging perhaps

    The change in the wind stream pattern is very evident on the map posted below.
    Strong zonal wind flow from the pacific streaming across the continent.
    What does this mean ? Its not from the southern high pressure belt
    On shore warmer/moist surface air mass?. Haven’t seen this pattern.?

    The westerly belt is looking good on this snap. Shouldn’t be long before Tassie gets some snow.

    Think the monsoon trough is leaving. No TC will get past that zonal easterly surface band next week anyway.
    Brick wall to the south

    22nd march 2014monsoon trough australia

  12. ACCESS forecast T+150 hrs is indicating an intact monsoon trough from New Guinea and westward into the indian ocean. Between 0-10 degs latitude

    20th April quite late in the season.
    There is a cyclone in the North east Indian ocean.
    On the monsoon trough there are a few areas of interest for TS/TC development
    See map below
    Cyclogenesis can occur anywhere along the monsoon trough
    Also of interest is the persistence of a wide east/south easterly trade belt
    Very strong flow in the far Nth east of Australia
    Also of note is the position of the high pressure belt which remains contracted southward. This assists in preventing the westerly belt from migrating northward currently

    The monsoon trough can still be described as active in the SH

    Monsoon trough 20th april 2014

  13. Thanks to ‘convection’ from WZforum for a snap of the monsoon 16th April 2014

    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1260233/Re_Coral_Sea_Tropical_Cyclone_#Post1260233

    ‘convention adds
    “7-9 April, 1984. CYCLONE LANCE. Gold Coast suffered wind and rain damage to homes and high rise buildings. Peak wave heights at Brisbane station recorded at 8.8 metre

    1 April, 1985. CYCLONE TANYA. Crossed the Peninsula Coast at Coen. Vegetation damage.

    2 April, 2000. CYCLONE TESSI. Crossed north of Townsville causing extensive crop damage and to some isolated buildings in the area. Townsville then suffered wind damage to buildings and widespread flooding. 70 knot winds recorded.

    28 March – 7 April, 2000. CYCLONE VAUGHN. Wind gust to 34 knots. No significant damage.

    SOSE 5 – 12 April 2001. Although the cyclone remained far offshore, large seas and high tides affected Queensland causing erosion and waves up to 4.8metres. There were two drowning near the Town of 177
    Just a short list here.

    http://www.australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/index.php

  14. ACCESS G is suggesting a tropical low /eddy will form 9th Nov 2014 at 172E 15 S
    I don’t think it is technically on the monsoon trough currently but has reasonable eastern infeed into the southern flank

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