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The first week of OCTOBER 2013 synoptic indicating an emerging change in surface pressure pattern (synoptic)

Heat troughs have been seen to emerge across the Northern quadrant of the mainland and the westerly belt has migrated northward on to the southern mainland squeezing the high pressure belt in between

MSLP  OCT 2013

source of BOM SYNOPTIC

The westerly belt over the mainland is most likely a consequence of a persistent NEGATIVE Antarctic oscillation (AAO)

Negative AAO oct 2013

source of AAO graph


This may include



  1. 9th OCT 2013 Forecast

    Largely rainfree troughing across Australia this week.

    The high pressure cells are largely sourced from the cooler westerly belt and have NO tropical in-feeds
    The high pressure cells drawing down warm dry air from the interior toward the southern coastline this week.
    The coastal NSW seems to benefit from some onshore flow
    S/west WA gets another brush from a westerly belt front. They just kept coming for the coastal S/west corner of WA

    Here is a snap of the 1km gradient winds showing a flow of air over the hot dry interior of inland Australia down towards the southern mainland of SA and VIC

    This forecast is for

    Wednesday 9th OCT 2013

    winds 9th oct 2013



    Sub – tropical jet is very wavy/ meridonal

    Never seen that before!! Not the sub-tropical anyway

    wavy subtropical jet 9th oct 2013

    High Pressure at the surface is sitting in the trough of the sub tropical jet and some strong troughing near the islands in the coral sea

    The 10 hPa layer in the SH is still very wavy and maybe associated with the wavy 200hPa layer

    30th oct 2013 10 hpa wavy sub polar layer


  3. Some N/west in-feed into a trough near S/west WA on Wednesday the 9th October 2013 bringing a rainband and likely storms .
    As the trough moves east ACCESS G suggests only VIC will benefit giving up to 5mm across the state around Thursday 10th OCT
    The winds before the change are likely to be warm dry and strong in SA and VIC

    WEDNESDAY 9TH OCTOBER ..Surface wind pattern

    wed 9th oct wind forecast

    The trough across the inland this week is rainless.

    NO winds directly from the tropics to in-feed into the trough
    Here is the wind chart showing winds are sourced from the southern latitudes for this system

    wed 9th oct rain forecast

    The satellite picture is indicating Australia is very clear of cloud and has been like this for a couple of months. The clearest area in the southern hemisphere.


  4. 9th OCTOBER 2013

    The westerly belt still quite north and clipping the southern mainland at times. THe SAM/AAO is still persistently in a negative trend
    Large highs but notice there is no equatorial in-feed. The ITCZ( intertropical convergence zone still way out of sight.
    The centre of the highs at Brisbane Latitude. Probably a neg SAM keeping the highs so far north curently

    Some svere weinds ramping up into this very tight trough line on Wednesday the 9th0ct
    Likely severe weather for Adelaide and surrounds particularly the western side

    Have a look at that LONG !! troughline

    9th oct 2013 severewinds near adelaide

  5. The

    SEPTEMBER 2013 anomalies have been published by BOM

    Looking at why the interior has been so hot lately .

    The global satellite picture has been showing persistent clear atmosphere for many months now
    Here is the latest and an example of the OLR anomaly


    10th Oct 2013

    10th oct 2013 global sat pic

    Expecting to see anomalous high pressure but according to these results this does not appear to be the case??

    There has been some strong anomalous low pressure in the s/west of WA probably related to the shift to a persistent strong negative AAO/SAM August and especially
    in September 2013

    mslp anomlay sept 2013


    THE SOI and anomalous high pressure near Darwin

    Also notable is that anomalous high pressure over Darwin is associated with a decreasing SOI and trending to El Nino like conditions

    “During El Niño episodes the SOI has a large negative value due to lower-than-average air pressure at Tahiti and higher-than-average pressure at Darwin”

    THe SOI has been swinging wildly this year (2013) and was trending El Nino in September. The current pattern suggest the SOI could equally swing wildly positive in preparation for the coming wet season

    Reduced pressure over Darwin and La Nina like trending

  6. OCTOBER 13th 2013

    A snap showing the extent of cold fronts advancing northward, most likely due to a continued negative AAO/SAM since July 2013

    Also emerging on the synoptic is some heat lows I the northern equatorial and glimpses of some wet patches up north on the satellite picture
    Some long troughing crossing from north to south of the mainland

    Will be interesting as the wet season deepens into November if that coincides with a strong negative AAO/SAM .

    oct 13th 2013 MSLP

  7. Some nice tropical activity emerging in conjunction with some strong southerly cold fronts managing to reach 28 deg latitude!! on this snap.
    The tropical wet season appears to be emerging

    14th oct 2013 MSLP


    An excellent forum thread to follow the TOP END wet season is here

    Thanks to OREBOUND from this thread and his snap of the lightning feast near Darwin vicinity

    13th oct2013 lightning near darwin

    and some comments by PILKO65 from Palmerston NT
    “Well round two was a belter, not as many sparks or wind initially but it certainly let loose rain wise. 42mm to add to the 15.4mm from the earlier storm.. Outstanding effort for this early in October “

    Homes destroyed 17th OCT 2013
    It’s feared more than 100 properties could be lost as NSW experiences its gravest bushfire emergency in a decade.
    Winds that have fanned about 100 fires across NSW on Thursday started to change late in the afternoon, putting new communities at risk as fires are pushed in new directions.
    Of the 100 fires, about 40 were uncontained at 5.30pm.
    Between 20 and 30 homes have been destroyed in Springwood, in the Blue Mountains and many more are under threat.
    There are also unconfirmed reports of properties being lost at North Doyalson, on the Central Coast; at Lithgow; at Yanderra and Balmoral, in the Southern Highlands; and in Port Stephens, where a fire is burning near Newcastle Airport which has been closed.
    ‘If we get through today losing less than 100 homes, we’ll have been very lucky,’ Rural Fire Service spokesman Anthony Clark said.
    RFS Deputy Commissioner Rob Rogers said it had been a nightmare day.
    ‘It’s probably the most serious fire risk we’ve faced since the early 2000s,’ he told ABC Radio.
    With multiple fires in the Blue Mountains area, police asked the public to postpone non-essential travel in order to keep the roads clear for firefighters.
    Residents in the Springwood, Yellow Rock, Winmalee, Emu Heights, Mt Riverview and Castlereagh were told to take shelter and protect themselves from the radiant heat.
    Some firefighters have suffered injuries, including one who’s been taken to hospital with burns.
    A southwesterly change moved through Mittagong around 4pm (AEDT), bringing wind gusts of up to 90 km/h.
    It would move through Sydney during the early evening.
    ‘It’s coming through from the southwest,’ Mr Clark told reporters.
    ‘So communities to the north of some of these fires are now being affected.’
    An emergency warning has been issued for a fire at Ruttleys Road at North Doyalson, on the Central Coast.
    ‘There are unconfirmed reports of (one or two) properties being destroyed there,’ the RFS spokesman said.
    In the Southern Highlands, communities around Bargo were warned to expect large fires, ember attacks and smoke from about 5pm as the change moved through.
    Residents advised to evacuate to Bargo earlier in the day were being told to avoid the area.
    Elsewhere in NSW, fires of grave concern to authorities are burning at Leppington, near Camden, west of Sydney, at South Nowra, on the south coast, and at Muswellbrook, in the Hunter Valley.

    PICTURE of SMOKE over SYDNEY from inland fires
    smoke over sydney from fires 17th oct 2013

    source: Channel 9 LIVE NEWS

    ABC channel 24 mentioned the following towns under threat in NSW

    Balmoral village
    Lithgow ..Blue mountains
    Mt Wilson
    Newcastle airport closed due to fire and smoke
    Hungerford creek

    up to 50 Houses razored so far

  9. Some very low overnight minimum temperatures across many parts of Inland NSW and VIC 18th Oct 2013

    Canberra a record low for minimum temperature of minus – 3.4 deg c 18thoct 2013

    This is lower than the record set in 4th Oct 1957 at Canberra airport comparison


    More NSW minimum temperatures

    Thredbo….Minus -5.4deg c
    Goulbourn airport Minus -4.8 deg c
    Orange airport Minus 2.4 deg c
    Mossvale.. 0.3 deg c

    COOMA minus 7.3 deg C !!

    Dew point minus 11.7 deg c

    and VIC

    Swan Hill 1 deg C
    Stawell 3.1 deg C
    Hamilton 3.2deg c
    Ballarat o.4 deg c
    Melbourne 7 deg c
    Bendigo minus – 1.3 deg c
    Wangarrata minus -1.5degc
    Kilmore gap 2.1 deg c


    Cold dry air mass

  10. Cold blast for Victoria and Tasmania week 4 OCTOBER

    Whilst the NSW has hot and fires . Victoria and Tasmania will have a strong cold pool of air from Antartic origin brought up by a deep high pressure system well south that will deliver snow down to 800m ( 24th oct 2013)
    Minimum temperatures will remain below zero for VIC alps in the next 4 days
    and Melbourne will have no maximum temps above 22 deg c for the next 4 days

    The 532 Thickness line creeps over parts of coastal VIC ( 24 th OCT)

  11. Blair Trewin reports a potential record run of extreme hot temperatures at FITZROY CROSSING in North west WA

    “Fitzroy Crossing has reached 40 every day this month – touch and go whether it will manage to get there for every day of October (40-39 forecast for the next two days). If it does so it will be the first time it has happened at any Australian station in October. The monthly mean maximum (currently 42.2) also looks like being the highest on record for any Australian station in October (a ranking list in which Fitzroy Crossing already occupies the top three places).”

  12. Having a look at the Southern Hemisphere synoptic pattern currently

    An obvious contraction / shrinking of the westerly belt toward the Antartic which you would expect as approaching summer.
    Also of note is how far south the tropical low troughing has dropped down in the vicinity of sth Africa

    SH synoptic 27th oct 2013
    Of note is the concurrent weakening of the stratospheric warming and wave action that predominated this winter
    That wave action ended around the first week in October and was closely followed by a shift in the AAO/SAM from Negative to curently neutral at the end of October 2013

    stratosphere 10mb temp 27th oct 2013

  13. My my things change quickly. . The active region inn the above post(comment) has increased to extend eastward into new guinea and the coral sea

    The current snap on 7th of DEC 2013 is indicating a coalescing of cloud into a nursery of tropical lows.. An active phase on the Inter tropical convergence zone(ITCZ)
    The chances of cyclogenesis increases considerably

    ACTIVE PHASE OF ITCZ December 7th 2013

    active ITCZ 7th dec 2013

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