CURRENT HURRICANES in the ATLANTIC
CAVIN RAWLINS is a guest poster and blogger on WUNDERGROUND which an excellent weather analysis site
Cavin uses the avatar name ‘weather456’
CAVIN in one of his posts identifies the link between Atlantic hurricanes and the phase of the QBO
( QBO.. wind direction at the ~ 10 hPa layer)
A substantial tutorial about the QBO from this link
The Quasi-Biennial zonal wind Oscillation
Here l have assembled some QBO ammunition
From CAVIN’s post
“During the QBO, Atlantic tropical cyclones are more frequent when 30 mb winds are westerly and increasing, rather than easterly and increasing. There have been 44% more hurricanes and 74% more hurricane days during the west as opposed to east phase of the QBO.
Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is inhibited during easterly phases of the QBO due to enhanced lower stratospheric wind ventilation and increased upper-troposphere-lower stratosphere wind shear.”
In what QBO phase are we currently in ..August 2013
The QBO changed phase into the WESTERLY /positive anomaly in March 2013 and has been increasing . As of august 2013 we are recording an anomaly of Positive 14.27
Weare in a westerly phase of the QBO and has been increasing since March 2013
I think the Atlantic has been quiet as of August 2013.
However peak cyclone season is due in September.
… with the Westerly QBO phase favouring Atlantic hurricane activity.??
It should be remembered that this is a statistical probability
44% more hurricanes in the westerly phase..
Lets see how the Atlantic hurricane season matches these predictions at the end of the season.
Will revisit this say in November when the data records for the 2013 season become available
So far the westerly QBO increasing = Above the mean hurricanes does not appear to be valid so far in 2013