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Another stratospheric warming event( SSW) in the Southern hemisphere? AUGUST 2013

A strong Stratospheric warming event in the Upper atmosphere commenced July 28th 2013 with a hot spot in the upper stratosphere 01 and 10 hPa .. south west of the WA coast
and peaked 6 days later on the 3rd August 2013.

Here is a snap of the SSW / stratospheric temperature anomaly in the first week of August 2013
A strong heating anomaly at 10hPa and 01 hpa at least commenced around the 28th JULY 2013
—————————————————————————————————————-

Stratospheric warming Aug 2013 southern hemisphere

    How does this happen?

Warm air from the surface layer is thought to penetrate the stratosphere created ‘forcing’ at the surface layer.
However research is still young in this area.

SSW’s are rare in the Southern Hemisphere.
—————————————–

    CURRENT ANIMATION


————————————————————————————————————–
A large warm anomaly caused ripples in the upper layer isotherm contours.

Wondering if this SSW event may be linked to a minus 4 ! AAO.
Discussed recently here
https://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2013/08/15/antartic-oscillation-ao-finally-plunges-and-westerly-belt-gives-southern-australia-a-lickin/

record AAO 16th August 2013

    The AAO commenced a downward trend around July 16th 2013

… 2 weeks before the SSW anomaly became evident on the animation
and reached minimum around 16th August as the SSW event was subsiding
.
THe current SSW event is in the same location as the last weak SSW noted MAY 2013
A record of that May 2013 event is recorded here
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1188254/Stratospheric_sudden_warmings_#Post1188254
—————————————————————————–

The westerly/low pressure belt is quite swollen at the moment which you might expect for winter
Of Note is the center of the high pressure belt has shifted north .Also a characteristic of winter synoptics
and a very long cold front makes it as far north as South east QLD

It is possible the recent SSW event has assisted in this winter pulse and synoptic set up.

Here it is for the record anyway

17th Aug 2013 SH synoptic

————————————–

STRATOSPHERIC INDICES by NOAA

Stratospheric home page
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/

Stratospheric Circulation Monitoring
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

—————————————————————————————————————–

THe last SSW l noted was around MAY 2013

Discussed here
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1188254/Stratospheric_sudden_warmings_#Post1188254
—————————————————————————

    NEWS FLASH

SSW EVENT in August 2013 in Southern Hemisphere is registering on OZONE mapping as a strong POSITIVE ANOMALY !!

SSW’s create OZONE????

ozone anomaly aug 2013

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25 comments on “Another stratospheric warming event( SSW) in the Southern hemisphere? AUGUST 2013

  1. Pingback: OZONE CONCENTRATION LINKED TO GLOBAL TEMPERATURE.. BUT HOW ? SOME REASONSTO DOUBTTHE NASA/SCHINDELL COMPUTER MODELLING.. | CRIKEY !#&@ ...... IT'S THE WEATHER CYCLES

  2. Just thought l would add some pictures and samples of the strength of the cold fronts coming through in August 2013 pushing through in the same location across Victoria

    The SAM index peaked at around the 14/15th August at minus 4

    3rd August2013
    ————————–
    3rd august sat pic

    16th August 2013————————
    16th August sat pic

    world satellite picture 16th August
    ———————————————–

    16th August2013 sat pic

    18th August 2013
    —————————
    18th aug 2013 sat pic

    21st of August 2013 .
    ——————————-
    The SAM index has relaxed and is has moved up to minus -3.2 on the 21st August 2013

    Another front coming through
    21st August 2013sat pic'

  3. MORE …To add with this continuing upper air disruption in AUGUST 2013

    The stratosphere at 200hPa layer has responded with a massive positive height anomaly.
    I have snapped the before and after. This is quite an amazing contrast

    june to Aug 2013 200hpa pos height anomlay

    Wonder how the Jetstream will respond and other variables?
    Could be an interesting spring. I wonder if the models have captured this anomaly in there mid range forecasts?

    source for 200hPa animation
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.shtml

  4. ‘REN’ a poster at Tallbloke Blog
    http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/contrasting-views-on-the-future-of-arctic-sea-ice/#comment-58070

    has notified me of what looks like a deep ‘sink hole’ in the upper stratosphere centred right over the Antartic pole.!

    Massive Geopotential height anomaly. Symmetrically arranged into a circular sinkhole.
    Central height – 25000
    Outer closed height bar is 30800.
    A difference in height of = 5800
    What the!!!
    https://picasaweb.google.com/110600540172511797362/STRATOSPHERE#5915646828983994818

    sinkhole over Antartica at 10hPa

  5. Some continuing developments. Thanks to BD at weatherzone for his observations and snaps which will include below.
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1208215/Re_Stratospheric_sudden_warmin#Post1208215

    AUGUST 24th 2013
    Some strong crests and troughs circulating around the south pole. A SSW appears to be orbiting the sth pole currently and on the 24th Aug 2013 is located of the southern African post as seen in snap below

    10hP temperature
    Central cold spot is minus – 85 deg C
    Centre of hot spot (SWW) is minus 30 deg c

    The temperature difference along that line is a massive 55 deg C
    24thaug 10hPa SWW

    —————————————————————-

    The 100hPa layer on the 24th August 2013
    -Cold core around the south pole
    -warm anomaly in a donut configuration around the southern pole at southern ocean latitudes. The warmer and cooler patches around this donut shape are suggestive of a wave pattern within the donut shape


    24 aug2013 100hPa warm jet

    Also note .. There was a strong solar storm recently that sent the cosmic ray flux dropping drastically.
    Some sought of pressure collapse ?
    a top down response…?
    ——————————
    Also included is the Southern Hemisphere Mean sea level pressure
    Showing high pressure in the Antartic and a wide low pressure belt across the southern ocean. Quite typical for a mid winter pattern. Although it is spring next week
    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/indian_ocean.shtml

    25th Aug 2013 SH _ MSLP

    —————————————————-

    Also adding a snap of global satellite picture indicating the position of current SWW hot spot. Near sth Africa. Warm anomaly reaching up to 10hPa
    There is an intense surface low registering in the cloud pattern

    25th aug 2013 sat pic
    source
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/satellite/

    —————————————————–

    The weather model ACCESS G l believe is picking up the raised height of the Jetstream near the SWW spot near sth Africa Longitude

    height of jetstream SH 25th Aug 2013

    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=pressureHgt&level=200hPa&tz=AEDT&area=G&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

    ————————————

    24th August 2013

    Also of note is the increase in the Ozone concentration in the ring around the south pole which is the rising air. Is the air warming from the rise in warm air from the surface or is the rising air forced into higher colder altitudes? being warmed by the increased production of ozone?

    Note also the significant reduction in OZONE where the air is sinking.
    Less ozone suggests cooler Atmosphere as Ozone is required to warm the stratosphere

    24th aug 2013 ozone in SH

    source
    http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/atmosphere/ozone/toast/images/toast_sh.png

  6. Some discussions regarding the cause of the polar stratospheric sink hole for record purposes
    ———————————————–
    REN had suggested that solar and changes to cosmic ray flux may be responsible for the anomaly in the upper air over the south pole
    I have tried to find any suspect solar activity thatmay have caused the stratospheric air over the south pole to collapse

    REN… I couldn’t find anything solar around or on on the 24 th Aug 2013 ? What could have caused the cosmic rays to suddenly drop?
    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/today.html#satenv

    Here is whatl found leadibg up to the 24 th August 2013

    1st August
    found this you tube Massive black hole on sun

    3rdAugust 2013
    First Forbush decrease of the 24th Solar Activity Cycle registered by Aragats Neutron Monitors
    After long absolutely calm period, Sun started to presentfirst signs of activity. A shock detected by the Ace Spacecraft at 3August indicated the arrival of at least one CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) causedby the long duration C3 flare on August 1.
    CME hit Earth’s magnetic field on August 3rd at 17:40 UT. TheKp-index reached 6 (DST index -70nT) and this indicates a G2 Level GeomagneticStorm, lasted nearly 12 hours. Correspondingly Neutron monitors demonstratecoherent changes of the hourly count rates as seen in the Figure 2. Thestrength of the geomagnetic storm was not very large and cosmic ray intensity depletion (so calledForbush decrease) do not enhance 2.5%; however very similar pattern of theintensity changes demonstrate by remote monitors do not leave any doubts thatthey are caused by the disturbances of the geomagnetic field due to arrivedhuge clouds of magnetized solar plasma. Other ASEC monitors as well as worldwidenetwork of SEVAN monitors did not register event due to higher cutoff rigidity.

    http://crdlx5.yerphi.am/press_releases/First_Forbush_decrease_of_the_24th_Solar_Activity_Cycle_registered_by_Aragats_Neutron_Monitors
    ————————————————————————————————————-
    Sunny Day does a daily commentary on the suns activity so l went to see what went on close to the 24 th august 2013
    Commentary by ‘Sunny Day’
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/ubb/showflat/Number/1036483/gonew/1/Solar_Watch_Spaceweather_2011_#UNREAD

    19th August 2013
    “A Sun Diving Comet has been spotted and observed approaching the Sun earlier today on the SOHO satellite imagery ”

    20th Aug 2013
    “I actually noted the Sun is very lively with 10 active regions – over 161 Sunspots ”

    This is what I am looking at – if she goes the eruption and possible CME will be squarely Earth facing. Will be interesting but nothing to be worried about of course…. just some spectacular footage to observe

    Kevin from Solarham.com has posted the below images showing the CME released by the filament lifting off from the Sun’s surface. Most likely to have some Earthbound components but how much we will learn shortly – gee looks rather strong if you ask me.
    —————————————————–
    An assortment of Neutron monitors and explanations here ( 2009)
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/15/cosmic-ray-flux-and-neutron-monitors-suggest-we-may-not-have-hit-solar-minimum-yet/
    A post by Leif Svalgard suggests what we see in cosmic rays happened around 6 -12 months ago?
    Leif Svalgaard says:
    March 15, 2009 at 8:57 am
    The cosmic modulation has a time shift of 6-12 months with respect to solar activity. This is because it takes the solar wind that long to fill the heliosphere [ 100 AU * 4 days per AU ], so if solar ‘minimum’ were 6 months ago, we should only begin to see a decrease in CRs about now or in the next few months

  7. Found some implications of the increased high pressure over the Antartic circle

    Quote”Antarctic sea ice extent for August 19 is 18.70 million square kilometers (7.22 million square miles), a record or near-record high level (August 19, 2010 was similarly high), led by unusually extensive ice in the Bellingshausen, Amundsen, and Ross seas, and in the western Indian Ocean sector. Climate conditions since June have been variable, but the most recent surge in ice growth has occurred during a period of unusually high pressure over the center of the continent, resulting in a slowing of the circumpolar winds, warm winter conditions for the central ice sheet areas (Vostok Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station both had periods of spring-like -30s earlier in the month), and cold conditions in the Bellingshausen, allowing ice to grow extensively there.”
    source
    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76273-arctic-ice-discussion-2013-melt-season/page-33

  8. Continuing wave activity in the upper stratosphere.
    Some snaps from the last week of august /winter

    EVIDENT AT THE SURFACE as well

    mslp 31st Aug 2013

    UPPER 10 hPa stratospheric wave orbiting the south pole

    10hpa wave Aug 2013

  9. Evidence of a large upper low in the 200 hPa ( jetstream layer)associated with the SWW
    August 31st 2013

    Note 3 upper lows apparent in the Northern hemisphere

    31st aug 2013 global jetstream

  10. Some weather reports starting to emerge and very likely related to the atmospheric wave action around the Antartic

    An amazing Report of record swings of temperature extremes in

    Sth America.

    On August 29th the temperature soared to 32.6°C (90.7°F) at Bahia Blanca, Argentina, an all-time record for the month of August. This follows a reading of -7.9°C (17.8°F) recorded on August 25th, their all-time record low for the month!
    The site has a POR (period of record) of over 100 years. Their normal daily range of temperature during August is 9.2°C-16.0°C (49°F-61°F).

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=189

    Looks as though the events in the stratosphere are linked. The article shows the anomalies of 500mb geopotential height.

    500mb geopotential height

    Santa Rosa, capital of La Pampa Province, Argentina reached an amazing 34.4°C (93.9°F) also on August 29th, just three days after recording a low of -1.3°C (29.7°F) on August 26th and a frigid -3.5°C (25.7°F) on August 23rd (normal daily range of temperature here during August is 9.4°C-16.8°C/49F°-62°F). Not to be outdone in the realm of temperature extremes, Villa Reynolds (also in Argentina) rose from -9.0°C (15.8°F) on August 25th to 32.3°C (90.1°F) by August 29th. These figures are similar to the kinds of wild temperature variations we see during the spring in the U.S. Plains states.

    Meanwhile, a very rare snowfall accumulated in the high desert town of San Pedro de Atacama, Chile on August 25-26. Located at 2500 m (8,250’) it is not unusual for cold temperatures to be measured here, but precipitation is very rare (being in the Atacama Desert, driest region of the world) and snowfall even rarer. The last report of snow here was in 1983. Snow was also reported on the beaches near Viedma, Argentina (about 150 miles south of Bahia Blanca) on August 23-25. Again, this was a first since the early 1980s.

    171.2 mm (6.74”) of rain fell on Porto Alegre, Brazil from August 22-26, the equivalent of their normal August monthly total. Flooding caused the evacuation of 7000 from several towns in the region (State of Rio Grande do Sul).

    —————————————————————————————————————-

    Reports from New Zealand

    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1209725/Re_New_Zealand_Weather#Post1209725
    140kmh gusts expected for inland Canterbury this afternoon and overnight, some are saying it could be as bad as the 1975 storm which saw whole plantations flattened, widespread damage to buildings and a 172kmh gust recorded at Christchurch Airport! Going to be a wild old night!!

    I’ve seen a report of 252 km/h at Mount Hutt.

    ——————————————-

    TASMANIA

    Was -5.7C at Mt Wellington this morning with 96km winds. Pretty nippy.http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1209811/Re_What_s_happening_in_Tassie#Post1209811
    ————————————————————————————————————-

    And the wave action is stronger than ever..
    6th September 2013

    6th sept 2013 10hpa

  11. Looks to be some wild swings in the 70hPa temp’ as well .
    Of note is the record cold temperature in August 2013 during our stratospheric warming and wave action

    Thanks to REN on ‘tallbloke blog’for noticing

    70hPa temp aug 2013 record

    ALSO the donut shaped warm ring around the Antartic at 100hPa
    Picture snapped on 13th September 2013

    13th sept 2013 100hpa temperature
    source

  12. Thanks to Weatherzone news … reporting

    TASMANIA has had some significant cold for September

    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tas-shivers-through-freezing-september-nights/25398
    Unlike the rest of the nation, winter is sticking around in Tasmania with some places seeing their coldest September nights in more than half a century.

    The last three nights have been unusually cold across much of the state as a cold airmass behind a cold front, which brought snow as low as 200 metres earlier in the week, combined with clear skies and light winds.

    In Hobart, the last three nights have averaged lows of 1.6 degrees, the city’s coldest triplet of September nights since 1959. This also includes a bone-numbing 0.6 degrees on Friday morning, the coldest September night in as many years.

    In the Upper Derwent, Bushy park averaged almost -3 degrees over its last three nights, its coldest triplet of September nights in 51 years of records. This included -3.7 degrees on Friday morning, equaling the September record set in 2008.

    In the Midlands, Tunnack has averaged almost -5 degrees the last three nights, its coldest triplet of September nights since records began in 1997. Other places including Geeveston and Lake Leake also saw their coldest triplet of September nights since their records began 22 years ago.

    Another chilly night is likely tomorrow morning over some parts, however nights will become much warmer from Sunday as it becomes windier, cloudier and wetter.

  13. 30th SEPTEMBER2013 .. REPORT on 10hPa layer in the sub polar region

    The wavy 10hPa layer around the Antarctic is continuing

    Strong geopotential height anomalies bringing spots of warming in the upper stratosphere and some cooler anomalies in a sort of standing wave pattern
    The wave appears to be no longer rotating around the Antarctic circle but has been in a standing wave pattern currently with a warm anomaly persisting s/west of WA in the southern ocean vicinity

    30th sept 2013 10hPa layer SH
    source
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1212581#Post1212581

    The forecast for the 200hPa Jetstream on Wednesday 9th Oct2013 is for a very meridonal /wavy sub-tropical jet. On Wednesday the 9th Oct it dips as far south as the Tasmanian latitude and l have never seen that…
    Not the sub-tropical jet anyway!!

    Also .. A strong kink( trough ) in the Jetstream has been persistently emerging in the coral sea near the islands and already produced an intense low that hit the North island of New Zealand late September 2013
    More information
    https://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2013/09/23/intense-low-bearing-down-on-the-nth-island-of-new-zealand-24th-and-25th-september-2013/

    PICTURE of FORECAST ACCESS 9th OCT 2013
    ————————————–

    jetstream 9th oct 2013 SH

    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=200hPa&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

  14. Massive high pressure sinking air anomalies over the Antarctic circle in September 2013
    The result some very strong warming of the Antarctic circle

    september 2013 850hpa temp southern hemisphere

    Note the donut shape of the SH anomaly
    Warming over the pole likely due to clearer skies or maybe strong in-feed of warm from the mid -latitude’s as a wavy atmosphere creates a meridonal flow

    The descending air over the poles may produce air to rise ( low pressure) in the sub polar region
    and then descend as high pressure in mid latitudes like Australia
    Only a thought here
    ——————————————————————————-

    EXTREME 200hPa Geopotential height anomalies SEPTEMBER 2013 ( southern hemisphere)

    This map shows the intense sinking air over the Antartic circle and rising around the circle at the sub polar latitudes as low pressure

    200hpa geopotential height sept 2013 SHemisphere

    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/cmb.cgi?page=map&variable=200z&vstatus=anomaly&period=month&area=sh

  15. Hey. Thanks ROM and IAN. So nice to hear from you both. I have been a bit busy the past 6 months with some problems at our Dunolly home in VIC. We have had to relocate and our now at Tweed Heads . Likely to stay for quite some time
    I have been slack and cut for time in researching and reporting many aspects of the weather. Thanks for the gentle prod to help me get back to it.. At least we have some power now..LOL
    Some amazing weather in the NH currently . Some incredible wintery weather in many places. Appreciate any information you posts
    I will work on catching up with the latest this year..cheers
    Great to hear from you ROM ..Where are you hanging out these days?
    If you want me to start a thread topic ROM or BD. Just let me know so you can post on your favourite topic

  16. Went around a lot of the blogs after the WZ fiasco and am now hanging out more or less at JoNova’s with an occasional bit on Climate etc and WUWT.
    Backed off commenting a lot since the WZ fiasco as I have a few other projects going in the workshop.
    I think I got a bit burned out in the end on the WZ forum and the time away and start doing something else, moving on in my life was a good thing in the end.
    But I do miss the free ranging commentary of the WZ forum set up.
    Too much “me-to-isms” on most other blogs plus unlike the free ranging WZ forum, the blog discussions are limited by the owners of the blogs to the subject [ ‘s ] they post on.

    The other alternative open forums simply don’t have the weight of numbers to be worth while doing all the research to ensure discussion and debate.
    A hard to get over hump for any blog or forum is the need to get the viewer and commenter numbers to make all the trouble and research worthwhile which I don’t think I need to tell you about.

    From the way the data and now the science is shaping including in the IPCC’s AR5, deep within it’s climate science section but not openly admitted in the Summary for Policy Makers, on the trends in the climate patterns and the increasingly critical commentary from every direction on the almost complete failure of the climate model’s predictions on which the entire case for any warming exists, it looks like the WZ administration got thoroughly sucked in by the back door pressure from the warmist trolls and made a major stuff up in backing the wrong horse and closing down the climate forum to prevent the skeptics from constantly challenging the warmist creed.

    Actually it is quite remarkable just how much traffic the closed down WZ climate forum is still getting with about a doubling of the number of views since the closedown.

    Climate is probably not your major line as you seem to be far more interested in what are the drivers of weather as well as climate and how all those drivers interact and work.
    You are probably getting into a weather /climate science field that is just now starting to get a lot of prominence as the catastrophe meme switches from a modelled, “we know it all “arrogance to a way overdue, “what the hell is going on with this weather and climate” questioning viewpoint and “how does this all actually work? ”

    Best of luck Crikey and I will drop in regularly to see what you are up to and currently having a look at and might even get back into a having a look at some climate science and weather drivers and commenting here again myself.

  17. Awesome ROM..Thanks for filling me in .. The weather and climate are such massive topics. Its not that l am not interested in climate stuff. Its just when l am under pressure l have had to work in my current interest area which seems to change now and then.. Last year it was solar/planetary and ‘tallbloke blog’ and currently my ongoing interest with wind patterns and global circulation
    I do miss reading WZ forum on climate and l also felt the loss.. Lost contact with many climate issues and have not kept up to date.
    Miss reading all the new research reviewson WZ and much more
    I try to stay out of trouble there and understand they do not want AGW discussed
    You are right that the WZ was the best forum debate in the world. None compares
    The English forum netweather community forum is my 2nd best pick
    Honored to have you contribute ROM..!

    Where is ARNOST?

    So.. What is your favourite topic and what shall l name a new post/thread that interests you?
    maybe l could setup a weather nerds chat post for general gossip and chit chat

  18. Blimey Crikey, you embarrass me. I’m only an uneducated, highly opinionated old grain cockie.
    Arnost I think now posts under “Rorschach” which no doubt quite tickles his particular sense of humour as in the Rorschach ink blot test used in psychology.

    I see that the usual bunch of rabid warmist trolls are immediately reminding Matt Pearce of his stance on climate matters as soon as a skeptic makes any comment at all about climate.

    As to what is my favorite topic. I’ll have to think about that one as like you, my interest switches around over time onto different subjects.
    But at the moment with a few projects running such as building sparrow traps and Indian Mynah traps and selling them at the local market for a bit of cash plus a difficult design job installing an electrical reel into the local regional mobile library bus. Plus a brother who wants a running grain sampler designed and built of which there are none currently available at a price and usability that suits grain farmers particular requirements . Plus researching a project that looks like the Australian Grains Research Council will take up sort of keeps me out of creating trouble elsewhere.
    You have a long hard row to hoe to be regarded as successful when you start a blog but keep your present good work up and don’t worry if your interest changes, just follow that new interest and you might eventually be surprised as to who eventually turns up on your site because of the knowledge , research and changing pattern of the blog keeps things interesting for a wide range of interested people.

    And watch out for trolls if you start to get a wider audience as Jo Nova told me they can be a thorough pain in the neck for a blog owner.

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