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global satellie picture 16th August 2013

I try to look at the global satellite picture from MET OFFICE most days.

I noticed yesterday that suddenly the cloudy ITCZ ( Inter-tropical convergence zone) became coalesced.!!
By that l mean the entire convergence zone became a mass of cloudy spots or tropical lows.
These lows often spawn Hurricanes or Typhoons
Things have been quiet relatively in the Northern hemisphere up until now.

Intriguing as to why the coalescence of cloud into points of tropical lows happened so suddenly?

I suspect the wind streams that support the ITCZ have strengthened?
however other ideas would be welcome .
The coalescence has occurred right acros the board and not just in one equatorial ocean basin

I have noted this by taking a snap.. and will note which of these lows on and near the ITCZ wil make it into cyclone categories as the days go by

Came across WIKOPEDIA’s outstanding up to date inventory of the 2013 Northern hemisphere cyclone season

This is outstanding.
Someone is updating this almost daily

Get the LATEST and ongoing historical documentation of this season

updated almost DAILY !! CHECK these links out

and you will bookmark





and here



Japan Meteorology Agency : Tropical cyclone Information

hong kong sat pic


33 comments on “ACTIVE PHASE for CYCLOGENESIS on the ITCZ

  1. 17th September 2013
    ACCESS G forecasting a typhoon skim the coast of Japan before heading north east up the coast and transitioning into a monster strong mid altitude low.
    Here is ACCESS .I have marked the path in purple and you can see the intensification in the transition

    typhon 17th sept2013

  2. An excellent forum thread on the west pacific Typhoons

    Extract from this forum thread
    Man-Yi is expected to peak at minimal typhoon intensity on approach to Japan possible landfall on Monday 17th September 2013
    This trough is a rather potent one and is being forced south by a intense migratory high that is event causing below freezing temperatures across Mongolia and North East China. This trough will act as a fish hook on Man-yi pulling it quickly north along the pacific coast of Honshu. A landfall is still possible south of Tokyo though. If one was to occur at this time it would seem most likely to be around the Honto Pennisula or Chiba Prefecture during the morning hours on Monday. I would say just prior to the morning rush hour but thankfully this storm will be skirting the coast on a Japanese Holiday. Many business will be closed any ways ahead of the storm.

    Tropical Storm Man-Yi

    TRACK for Man Yi

    track for Man Yi septembver 2013

    Western pacific weather

  3. A REPORT from Japan regarding Man Yi landfall

    typhoon Man Yi damage

    Typhoon Man-yi has hit Japan, leaving three people dead and forcing the operator of the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant to release rainwater with low levels of radiation into the Pacific Ocean.

    The powerful typhoon made landfall in Toyohashi, Aichi prefecture, on Sunday, packing gusts of up to 162 kilometres an hour, the Japan Meteorological Agency said.

    Public broadcaster NHK said a 71-year-old woman was found dead as a landslide engulfed her house in Shiga prefecture, while a 77-year-old woman was also confirmed dead in a separate mudslide in Fukui prefecture, near Shiga.

    Japanese news agency Jiji Press said a third person, a man aged 63, died after falling from a ladder he climbed to shut a window.

    Kyodo news agency, citing local officials, said five people were still missing, while NHK said 128 others were injured with more than 4,000 houses flooded and at least 270 houses damaged by strong wind or landslides.

    The typhoon, losing strength slightly, left Japan’s main island by Monday evening after the eye of the storm passed within 50 kilometres north of the capital at around noon
    The typhoon also hit the northeast, including the Fukushima area, bringing heavy rain to areas near the broken plant run by Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO).


    Quite evident on the global satellite picture

    TS USAGI 18th sept 2013


    Heading close to Taiwan currently


      Japanese Meteorological society

    NEWS article

    Tropical storm USAGI is forecast to strike Taiwan as a typhoon at about 06:00 GMT on 21 September

    USAGI track

  5. Some talk of SUPER TYPHOON USAGI direct or very near landfall on HONG KONG

    USAGI infra red

    source file

    Fabulous image of USAGI

    USAGI track

    source of picture and an excellent report of latest information

    MET OFFICE satellite picture 20th Sept 2013

    USAGI 20th sept 2013


  6. LANDFALL near HONG KONG expected 150 knot storm

    Outstanding analysis of Typhoon USAGI on you tube by

    ROBERT SPETA on facebook

    The detail this dude goes into his presentations is mind blowing

    The film of landslide.. Get a load of the rock that comes down



    Typhoon Usagi was on path to hit on Kong most of the day on Saturday in to Sunday morning, yet by sunday afternoon the unpredictableness of weather showed face and Usagi took an unexpected sharp turn north towards a location half way between Chaouzhou and Hong Kong.

    The storms exact location of landfall is near Hudong Harbor in Guangdong. A far less populated area of the china coastline than the Hong Kong Macau Metropolotin area. The storm will bring its full force of sustained winds over 100kts near the coastline in this area yet winds gusting over Typhoon strength is very well possible still in the city of Hong Kong through the over night hours as Usagi tracks inland north of Hong Kong moving right over the Metro area of Guangzhou. The strongest winds will likely be in areas surrounding Victoria Harbor just prior to midnight as Usagi makes its closest approach.

    read more

    usagi landfall


    sat pic of landfall USAGI


    You tube chase in TAIWAN


    Picture of FITOW and newly formed DANAS
    typhoon pair FITOW and DANAS


    Typhoon DANAS is forecast to head to OKINAWA in JAPAN

    Here is a good thread to follow


    As of Friday Afternoon Models are in fair agreement of a land falling storm system over Okinawa Honto on Monday Evening.

    Danas is the 24th named storm of 2013

  9. TYPHOON FITOW makes landfall in CHINA
    …REPORT 7th October

    Typhoon Fitow has barrelled into China’s east coast, packing winds of more than 200 kilometres an hour as hundreds of thousands of people were evacuated and bullet train services suspended, state media report.

    ..The National Meteorological Centre issued a red alert for the storm, which was packing winds of up to 151km/h late on Sunday night as it moved towards the coast.

    Winds rose to 201km/h in parts of Wenzhou, the official Xinhua news agency reported later, citing local flood control authorities.

    Zhejiang has so far evacuated more than 574,000 people, while in Fujian 177,000 have been displaced, Xinhua said.

  10. Typhoon NARI October 2013

    NARI…sliced across the farming region at the centre of the main Philippine island of Luzon before dawn Saturday and later blew out to the South China Sea with peak winds of 120km/h, the state weather service said.

    The typhoon also toppled power pylons, blacking out the province of Aurora on the east coast and about half of Tarlac and Zambales provinces, Lontoc said.

  11. OCTOBER 12th

    INDIA…Cyclone Phailin

    was packing gusts as high as 240 kilometres per hour and had the potential to be the strongest storm to hit the area in 14 years, bringing a three-metre surge in sea levels.

    typhoon phaillin and nari

    The US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Centre said gusts could reach as high as 315 kilometres an hour, while London-based Tropical Storm Risk put Phailin in its most severe ‘super cyclone’ category.

    The armed forces have been mobilised to help with relief efforts and the Indian Red Cross Society has put disaster response teams on standby in Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Andaman Nicobar.

    Satellite photos showed an intimidating cloud mass barrelling across the Bay of Bengal with forecasters saying the danger zone was about 150 kilometres wide.

    Some foreign forecasters have suggested that India’s weather office is underestimating the power of Phailin, however, which means ‘sapphire’ in Thai.

    A government report on the 1999 disaster put the death toll at 8243 and said 445,000 livestock perished.

    Authorities have said they are better prepared this time around.

    Cyclones are a common occurrence in the Bay of Bengal at the end of the steamy monsoon season, when sea temperatures are at their warmest.

    A cyclone that struck Bangladesh in 1970 killed hundreds of thousands of people.

    Here is a nice snap of triplets in the WEST PACIFIC

    3 cyclones in west pacific oct 2013

  12. Cyclone Phailin..13th OCT 2013

    ‘We were preparing for a super cyclone, but Phailin did not turn into a super cyclone,’ spokeswoman for the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Tripti Parule, said

    The state of Orissa’s top rescue official said 860,000 people moved before the cyclone made landfall on Saturday evening, while at least another 100,000 were evacuated further south in the state of Andhra Pradesh.

    In Gopalpur, where the eye of the storm struck,

    ‘almost 90-95 per cent of people have been evacuated’, he added.

  13. Thanks to Ken Kato for this link and information on the impact of Typhoon WIPHA

    Some record rainfall on the Island of IZU OSHIMA
    Can you imagine 800mm of rain falling in 24 hrs

    Typhoon Wipha pounds Japan

    Typhoon Wipha is now bringing heavy rains and strong winds to central and northern Japan. The large and powerful storm killed 7 people on Izu Oshima Island, south of Tokyo. The island had its heaviest rainfall on record.

    The Meteorological Agency estimates that as of 11 AM on Wednesday, the typhoon was over the sea southeast of Miyagi Prefecture and was moving north-northeast at 70 kilometers per hour.

    It had a central atmospheric pressure reading of 960 hectopascals, and was packing winds of up to 126 kilometers per hour near its center.

    Police said the bodies of 5 people were found in areas where homes collapsed or were buried under mud on Izu Oshima Island. The bodies of 2 others were found near the mouth of a swollen river.

    Local officials have been unable to contact about 50 other residents.

    The rainfall over the past 24 hours on the island has exceeded 800 millimeters. That’s more than double the average for October and the heaviest downpour since data became available.

    Police are searching for 2 boys who went missing from a beach in Kanagawa Prefecture, near Tokyo. The 6th-graders were playing when waves swept them away.

    The typhoon has flooded homes and caused mudslides in some areas, as well as power outages.

    The stormy weather continues to disrupt rail and road traffic.

    Oct. 16, 2013 – Updated 02:23 UTC

  14. ACCESS global is indicating Typhoon Francesco will barrel through the islands of Japan

    Here is an excellent forum thread to update on this typhoon suggesting a landfall on 25ht Oct 2013

    Super typhoon Francisco is forecast to strike Japan as a typhoon at about 00:00 GMT on 25 October


    Super typhoon Francisco is forecast to strike Japan as a typhoon at about 00:00 GMT on 25 October. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 33.0 N, 136.6 E. Francisco is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 157 km/h (97 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

    According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Francisco’s strength (category 2) at landfall includes: Storm surge generally 1.8-2.4 metres (6-8 feet) above normal.

    There is another typhoon developing behind Francesco.
    ACCESS G suggests this new development will not follow Francesco to Japan and will remain well put to sea.
    The two seem to form a duo on transition northward to mid-latitudes

  15. Some Tropical storm/ cyclogenesis emerging in the Indian ocean currently
    (27th OCT 2013)

    However this low/storm is not born from the ITCZ( inter-tropical convergence zone) from a cross equatorial flow.
    There is a strong easterly stream at 10 deg S latitude crossing the northern Indian ocean and is rebounding of the coast of Majorca creating a nice rotation/eddy at the surface layer
    Might just note that the 200hpa wind direction is also easterly

    ITCZ 27th oct 2013


  16. TYPHOON KROSA . November week one 2013

    Possible threat to Vietnam

    typhoon krosa

    Report from ‘Netweather’ forum

    report by..’summerset squall’
    “The twentyninth tropical depression of the 2013 West Pacific typhoon season has formed roughly 700 nautical miles east of Manila, Philippines..
    Interaction with Luzon weakened Krosa to 75kts, but the typhoon has ramped up considerably this evening, and is now a 100kt cat 3 on the SS scale. The small eye I noted when Krosa was skirting the north coast of Luzon was disrupted by land but has now been replaced by a much larger eye which has cleared out this evening
    Krosa is probably near peak intensity, as shear is higher where Krosa is headed, plus the typhoon is expected to interact with land soon (Hainan Island). However, Krosa is still likely to be a threat to Vietnam in the longer term, the threat being mainly from flooding rains. In the nearer term however, Hainan Island has this to be concerned about with damaging winds also being very likely.

  17. Typhoon HAIYAN

    Picture from Bellmereweather

    typhoon haiyan nov 2013

    ABC report

    Typhoon Haiyan gaining strength, heading towards the Philippines

    Shivali Nayak, and staff, Wednesday November 6, 2013 – 16:07 EDT

    Typhoon Haiyan is intensifying as it continues to move across the northern Pacific, packing winds of up to 240 kilometres per hour.

    Michael Ziobrol, from the US National Weather Service, says the typhoon is forecast to affect parts of Micronesia later on Wednesday.

    “It’s going pretty quickly and it’s going to go to Palau and south of Yap but there’s a little island there with a few people called Nrulu and they’re probably going to get the eye of the typhoon over them,” he said.

    Mr Ziobro says many of the islands in the path of the typhoon are low-lying areas.

    “Some of these little islands are not very high… levels above the ocean so some of the wave action would be higher than atolls,” he said.
    Haiyan is expected to reach central Philippines as a super typhoon by Friday noon local time, moving at 233-249 kilometres per hour, according to Michael Ziobrol.
    The typhoon will be named Yolanda when it enters the Philippines.

    The country is hit by some 20 typhoons each year. Typhoon Nari pounded the archipelago’s north last month, killing 13 people.

    © ABC 2013

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