2015_2014 GLOBAL LONG RANGE FORECASTS

Please click on the title to load the comments on the base of this page which include further forecasts from other sources

GEOFF SHARP from LANDSCHEIDT.info blog

The Massive Northern Hemisphere Winters Set to Continue.

Posted Tue, 07/30/2013 – 20:15 by Geoff Sharp on ‘Tallbloke’ blog

hemisphere ice cover 2013
picture above sourced from
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1353073/Winter-storm-Map-shows-Northern-Hemisphere-covered-snow-ice.html

FEBRUARY 2011

“At first glance it looks like a graphic from a Discovery Channel programme about a distant ice age. But this astonishing picture shows the world as it is today ( February 2011)- with half the Northern Hemisphere covered with snow and ice”

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1353073/Winter-storm-Map-shows-Northern-Hemisphere-covered-snow-ice.html#ixzz2bYfiOLZl

Please take the time to visit the above link from the daily mail
The photography is jaw droppingly spectacular
——————————————-

Geoff points out that he has previously successfully predicted the past cold winters of the northern Hemisphere
from his blog

Example
http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/224

Geoff was inspired by a number of scientists who maintained
the Sun is modulated by the planets.

His website LANDSCHEIDT.info ….pays tribute to these great researchers and Geoff Sharp is compelled to continue their work..
and doing very well may l add…

quote from Geoff
“Thanks to CARL SMITH who has recently left us we have new knowledge that significantly adds to JOSE, LANDSCHEIDT & CHARVATOVA’s work.”

    NOW FOR GEOFF SHARP’s LONG TERM WEATHER FORECAST

Geoff Sharp: Solar based NH Winter forecast
located here
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/08/03/geoff-sharp-solar-based-nh-winter-forecast/#comment-57099

    EXTRACTED HIGHLIGHTS in point form

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER
quote
“During what will be known as the Landscheidt Minimum we have so far experienced massive winter events especially in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 3 years.
This coming winter event will be no different
as the solar conditions continue to look weak during the very low cycle max of solar cycle 24,
and
– the cool Pacific Decadal Oscillation ( PDO ) conditions also look to prevail

-The current E Ultra Violet levels are still very low and are not expected to increase according to my prediction for at least 25 years,

-the cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation ( PDO) which normally lasts 30 years is just beginning and should encourage La Nina conditions over El Nino.

-The position of the NH jet stream has been influenced by the Arctic Oscillation ( AO ) or Northern AO over the past 3-4 NH winters.
Last year the neg AO directed the jet stream to be most destructive over western Europe and the USA.
This year could be different in respect to where the most severe impacts will be felt.

-The Quasi biennial oscillation( QBO …upper air winds in the stratosphere) which looks to be involved with the northern polar vortex breakups is moving towards its westerly phase, this phase is not as conducive to negative AO formations, as the planetary winds are not encouraged as much to travel north to impact the polar vortex and the associated impacts on the AO. If this trend continues we would be less likely to see as much negative AO activity as last year which will shift the jet stream position to impact Eastern Europe and China.
——–

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20 comments on “2015_2014 GLOBAL LONG RANGE FORECASTS

  1. ULRIC LYONS

    A frequent poster at’ Tallbloke blog’

    Here is a post by ULRIC at
    http://www.linkedin.com/groups/Winter-2013-2014-is-coming-4786004.S.259614043

    .” • Hi Len. As you know,
    I am forecasting a long intense cold shot starting from around the 7th January 2014.
    The first signs of any warmer bursts are in the last 10 days of February, which for the UK/Euro will likely result in heavy snow falls, and the Atlantic flow finally breaking through early March.
    The (north east?) U.S. could see the cold continue further into March.
    This is a solar based forecast, produced entirely from heliocentric planetary angular analysis”
    —–
    further to discussion on ‘ linkedin’.

    It will take studying some suitable analogue years to get an idea of regional detail for the U.S. Len. There are some astronomical differences between Jan-Feb 2014 and the best analogue at 179.05 yrs earlier, which show it will be colder than the analogue, particularly in January.
    So even where weather records for that far back exist, they will not be that helpful in this case. My approach would be to firstly refer to CET and search for colder Jan+Feb years very near to sunspot cycle maximum, and use those years as U.S. analogues. http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/tcet.dat

    There is also an intermittent astronomical analogue at 953yrs!
    In 1010 AD the Nile froze, so did the Thames, 953yrs later is 1963.

    2014 minus 953 is 1061AD: “Thames frozen for seven weeks”:
    http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1000_1099.htm

    Not that lower reaches freeze anymore, but it does suggest a seven week cold hit.

    I wonder why Piers is going for cold, his 132yr theoretical solar-lunar analogue suggests a very mild Jan-Feb 2014.

  2. DR VUKCEVIC

    VUKCEVIC has an amazing prediction cooling downturn !! for the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO)

    A contributor to WUWT and TALLBLOKE blogs

    His experience is extensive
    M.A. Vukcevic is
    Sc. Postgraduate (M.Sc) – London University
    Eng. Graduate (Dipl.Ing) – Belgrade University
    http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/

    VUKCEVIC has an amazing prediction cooling downturn !! for the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO)

    Get a load of this ‘fallout’ currently predicted to be underway

    here
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SST-NAP.htm

    This type of ‘free fall’ graph is similar to Archibalds free fall in global temperature prediction
    http://joannenova.com.au/2012/01/global-cooling-coming-archibald-uses-solar-and-surface-data-to-predict-4-9c-fall/

  3. The WEATHER CENTRE an excellent blog and Andrew incorporates great detail.
    His forecast is for the USA

    “Wednesday, August 14, 2013
    Prospects of an Early Winter Quickly Rising
    By Andrew ( blog owner) at 4:43 PM

    The prospects of an early winter arriving in the United States are rising, as model guidance and observed temperatures in the Arctic support a quick start to the season.

    – See more at: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/prospects-of-early-winter-quickly-rising.html#sthash.PhxN1F89.dpuf

    This blog is worth a bookmark.

  4. Here is a a very detailed prediction of a moderate to strong el Nino .

    An El Niño Coming in 2014?
    By: Michael Ventrice, 2:58 PM GMT on February 21, 2014

    source
    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2635

    I particularly enjoyed Dr Ventrice’s explanation of westerly wind burst in the west pacific. His overview of their role in the super strong el nino of 1982

    He sees some similarities to the 1982 event building currently

    I also enjoyed his reference to the current surface synoptic situation of 22nd feb 2014 , where twin lows near the west pacific equatorial contribute to the westerly wind bursts and flow of warm water toward the east

    great DIAGRAMS NICELY EXPLAINED

    lows in west pacific asist westerly wind burst———————————————-

    Thanks to’ KIZZ’ for posting the link to this blog post
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1225860/10

  5. Potential Record Ice on Lake Superior May Mean a Cool Spring ( surrounding the lake)

    By Kristen Rodman, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer

    February 20, 2014; 4:19 AM

    effect of lake ice on spring temps around the lake

    “Other than the ice jam worries, the ice coverage on the Great Lakes, specifically on Lake Superior, is mounting concerns for the region’s climate.

    With all of this ice, all the sunlight that hits the surface of the lake is going to get bounced back out into space, so it’s going to take longer to get warmer this spring and summer,” Austin said. ”

    With no end in sight, the winter of 2014 rages on, ushering in frigid Arctic air and dumping record-breaking snow and ice on much of the nation.

    This season, ice coverage on Lake Superior has exceeded other measurements in recent history.

    “By the long shot this is the most ice we’ve had on Lake Superior in 20 years,” Associate Professor Jay Austin of the Large Lakes Observatory in Duluth, Minn., said.

    During a typical winter, 30 to 40 percent of the Great Lakes are covered by ice, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.

    this winter 80 to 90 percent of the Great Lakes are covered in ice. As of Thursday, Feb. 13, 2014, Lake Superior was classified as 90 percent covered.

    “The Arctic air masses don’t get warmed up as much because of all the snow and ice,” Anderson said. “There has not been much of a thaw so the ice keeps building up.”

    The last time in recent history the ice coverage was even close to this winter’s percentage was the winter of 1993/94. That winter ice coverage was measured at 90.7 percent.

    Depending on who you ask, Lake Superior already has frozen over, Austin stated. However, with two to three weeks to go until the typical peak of ice coverage in mid-March, the Lakes will only freeze even more.

    “The ice will become more robust, we are going to have more ice rather than less over the next three weeks,” Austin said.

    An impending return of the now-infamous polar vortex for the middle of next week ill send temperatures from the Midwest to the Northeast plummeting 15 to 20 degrees below normal. As it drops down to the James Bay in Canada, it will deliver another blast of arctic air for the area.

    “This type of airmass will give the Great Lakes the potential for a new satellite-era ice coverage record,” Anderson said.

    The winters of 1993 and 1994 had the previous highest since we started monitoring ice coverage with satellites about 30 years ago.

  6. Lets see how this forecast for Queensland ‘ pans out’

    National temperature and rainfall outlook for March to May 2014

    march may BOM seasonal outlok temp and rain

    Climate influences
    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with the majority of atmospheric and oceanic indicators close to their long-term average. Dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that while ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist through autumn, some warming of the central Pacific Ocean is likely. While short of El Niño levels, this warming may still have some impacts upon Australian climate

    Ocean temperatures surrounding Australia are generally expected to remain close to their 1981-2010 average, though some cooler than average temperatures around northern and north-eastern coasts early in the season may mean a reduction in evaporation in those areas. Atmospheric pressures may be below average over some southern areas in the first half of the season, which may favour drier westerly winds over some parts of eastern Australia.

    The Indian Ocean Dipole is typically too weak to have a significant influence on the Australian climate during the autumn period

    ———————————————————————————————–.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/temps_ahead.shtml?link=1

  7. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has published its prediction for pacific SST’s and ENSO for 2014

    Pacific Ocean expected to warm
    Issued on Tuesday 25 February 2014

    Extract
    The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral – neither El Niño nor La Niña. However, warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely in the coming months, with international climate models surveyed by the Bureau showing Pacific Ocean temperatures approaching or exceeding El Niño thresholds in the austral winter. Model outlooks that span autumn tend to have lower skill than outlooks made at other times of the year, and hence should be used cautiously in isolation.

    Recent observations add weight to the model outlooks. The tropical Pacific Ocean subsurface has warmed substantially in recent weeks, which is likely to result in a warming of the ocean surface in the coming months. A strong burst of westerly wind occurring now over the far western tropical Pacific, may cause further warming of the subsurface in the coming weeks.

    The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) typically has little influence on the Australian climate from December to April. Current model outlooks suggest neutral IOD conditions for late autumn into early winter. The risk of a positive IOD event occurring is elevated during El Niño events.

    Next update expected on Tuesday 11 March 2014 | print version

    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

  8. More interest in a possible El Nino emerging..
    I like this article from Max Gonzales from weatherzone forum.. He has explained some of the basics of El Nino in the pacific ocean in easy to read and understand language

    Increasing odds for El Nino to affect Australian weather late 2014

    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/increasing-odds-for-el-nino-to-affect-australian-weather-late-2014/27106

    I think many are predicting an El Nino of some description because there are warm sub surface ocean anomalies in the west pacific making there way eastward
    A strong sustained westerly wind event in the west pacific can assist in moving the warmth in subsurface heat toward the central and east Pacific surface
    All eyes on the surface synoptic in the Pacific in the coming months

    I am not convinced of the forecast for El Nino
    Firstly a warming west pacific can relate to stronger trade winds pushing water to the west which is a La Nina tendency
    There are substantial cool anomalies in the west pacific currently especially south of the equator
    The warm anomalies off the south west coast are related to a positive period of the PDO ( pacific decadal oscillation). This will temper any La nina development

    If there is significant cyclone activity in the west pacific . There wil lbe a low pressure surface anomaly in the west pacific which is not good for el Nino development.

    Finally ..Whenever there is a global warming statement at the end of an article l know th author is geared to global warming expectations
    and global warmists are expection a grand El Nino to make their case
    ——————————–

    The global cooling scientists are not expecting continued global warming and record El Ninos

    ————————————-

    Another report from BOM re :El Nino predictions for 2014 dated March 26th 2014
    The autumn to Autumn ENSO sequence commences in Autumn in Australia.
    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/chance-of-el-nino-by-winter-increases/27912

    Dr Watkins says
    “We’ve seen about 26 El Nino events over the past century or so. About 17 of them have resulted in drought.”

  9. Some innovative research underway here.
    An alternative forecast
    http://www.global-warming-and-the-climate.com/enso-and-tidal-forcing.htm

    quote
    “My forecast is that at the end of this year 2014, ENSO is going to be in La Niña or neutral condition. However there is going to be a slow overall trend in the coming years towards higher ENSO values over several years”.

    Contact information
    Per Strandberg
    Harabåsen 44
    N-5707 Evanger
    Norway
    Phone +47 90632736
    http://www.global-warming-and-the-climate.com/contact.htm

  10. http://insurancenews.com.au/local/researchers-issue-super-el-nino-warning
    Researchers issue super El Nino warning
    25 November 2013
    Global warming is expected to increase the incidence of “super El Ninos”, which can cause multibillion-dollar losses and thousands of deaths.

    New research from the University of NSW and the Australian Research Council says that even under modest climate change scenarios, the devastating events would hit twice as often.

    Super El Ninos, such as those in 1982 and 1997,

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